The contest in Uttar Pradesh this time is largely between Mayawati and Narendra Modi. You won't see this reflected on the news because she and her Bahujan Samaj Party shun the media. However, to the extent that she's been in the news lately, it's more to criticise the Bharatiya Janata Party than the Samajwadi Party that rules the state.
The reason she's sitting pretty is the Muslim vote. In the 2012 Uttar Pradesh Vidhan Sabha elections, Muslims, who tend to vote as a block in UP, largely supported the Samajwadi Party. This allowed Akhilesh Yadav to become chief minister. In that election, the Muslim voter also had the option of the Congress and the BSP. In this election, however, the Muslim voter is suddenly without options. The rise of Modi has been watched by the community with trepidation. The Samajwadi Party has goofed up not just by failing to contain the communal violence in Muzaffarnagar but also the series of riots preceding it. The Congress is down and out even before the game begins. That leaves the Muslim voter with only one option: Mayawati.
Mayawati's core vote base, Dalits, represents 21% of the population. Add 18.5% Muslims to that and you have a winning formula. This should make Mayawati's BSP the single largest party in Uttar Pradesh.
But a Muslim consolidation usually results in a Hindu consolidation in the opposite direction – that's good news for the BJP. A practically two-way contest makes it easier for both Mayawati and Modi, who will most likely contest from Varanasi in addition to a seat in Gujarat. The Muslim voter in UP has kept the BJP out of power as much as possible since the Babri Masjid fell in 1992. This has been done through tactical voting: the vote goes to whoever can defeat the BJP. In this election it's Mayawati who emerges as that option, by doing nothing. Unlike Bihar, where Dalit leader Ram Vilas Paswan has joined the National Democratic Alliance, Dalits in UP have very limited attraction to the BJP.
Mayawati is perhaps the quietest big leader this election season. It's a silence that causes disquiet in other the offices of other parties. Mayawati is known to be the silent organiser on the ground, rallying cadres and matching caste and community combinations, announcing informal lists of candidates way before anyone else, giving them time to build on their constituencies. Unlike in 2009, she is not pitching to be Prime Minister this time. That dream ended with her losing the 2012 Vidhan Sabha election to the Samajwadi Party. But the Samajwadi Party has performed so badly since then, it has left the field open for Mayawati.
The opinion poll takers admit that the BSP's chances tend to be underestimated in the surveys because Mayawati's core voter, the Dalit community, is a silent vote bank. The latest CNN-IBN-CSDS-Rajiv Kharandikar opinion poll says that 13% of Muslims in Uttar Pradesh will vote for the BJP, and only 6% will vote for the BSP. Despite a series of riots of which they have been at the receiving end, 47% of Muslims will still vote for the Samajwadi Party. The truth is that the Muslim voter is more silent than the Dalit voter. A lot of the calculations depend on who the candidates are, and that will not be known until the end of this month for some parties.
Mayawati has three challenges. First, since she has allied with the BJP in the past and once campaigned for Modi in Gujarat, the Samajwadi Party will tell Muslims that voting for her is like voting for Modi. Mayawati is going all out to correct this impression.
Secondly, the Aam Aadmi Party might cut into some of her votes, especially Muslim votes. But then the AAP will take away some of BJP's votes too. This biggest damage the AAP will cause everyone is among the “floating votes” – voters who do not strongly identify with any party on caste or communal lines.
Thirdly, a Modi wave might affect some of Mayawati's own Dalit voters. Two-thirds of all Dalit voters in Uttar Pradesh are Jatavs, the caste formerly engaged in leather work. Mayawati herself comes from the community. But the other one-third are sometimes amenable to gravitating towards greener pastures.
Still, these challenges are relatively minor. The four-time UP chief minister is the most underestimated politician this election season. Hurting the BJP's prospects in UP, Mayawati could be the biggest challenge in the BJP winning the 50 seats in UP that it needs to reach its goal of 200 seats in total. This would prevent Modi from becoming prime minister. And Mayawati will be the news a lot more as she begins her campaign.
We welcome your comments at
letters@scroll.in.
The reason she's sitting pretty is the Muslim vote. In the 2012 Uttar Pradesh Vidhan Sabha elections, Muslims, who tend to vote as a block in UP, largely supported the Samajwadi Party. This allowed Akhilesh Yadav to become chief minister. In that election, the Muslim voter also had the option of the Congress and the BSP. In this election, however, the Muslim voter is suddenly without options. The rise of Modi has been watched by the community with trepidation. The Samajwadi Party has goofed up not just by failing to contain the communal violence in Muzaffarnagar but also the series of riots preceding it. The Congress is down and out even before the game begins. That leaves the Muslim voter with only one option: Mayawati.
Mayawati's core vote base, Dalits, represents 21% of the population. Add 18.5% Muslims to that and you have a winning formula. This should make Mayawati's BSP the single largest party in Uttar Pradesh.
But a Muslim consolidation usually results in a Hindu consolidation in the opposite direction – that's good news for the BJP. A practically two-way contest makes it easier for both Mayawati and Modi, who will most likely contest from Varanasi in addition to a seat in Gujarat. The Muslim voter in UP has kept the BJP out of power as much as possible since the Babri Masjid fell in 1992. This has been done through tactical voting: the vote goes to whoever can defeat the BJP. In this election it's Mayawati who emerges as that option, by doing nothing. Unlike Bihar, where Dalit leader Ram Vilas Paswan has joined the National Democratic Alliance, Dalits in UP have very limited attraction to the BJP.
Mayawati is perhaps the quietest big leader this election season. It's a silence that causes disquiet in other the offices of other parties. Mayawati is known to be the silent organiser on the ground, rallying cadres and matching caste and community combinations, announcing informal lists of candidates way before anyone else, giving them time to build on their constituencies. Unlike in 2009, she is not pitching to be Prime Minister this time. That dream ended with her losing the 2012 Vidhan Sabha election to the Samajwadi Party. But the Samajwadi Party has performed so badly since then, it has left the field open for Mayawati.
The opinion poll takers admit that the BSP's chances tend to be underestimated in the surveys because Mayawati's core voter, the Dalit community, is a silent vote bank. The latest CNN-IBN-CSDS-Rajiv Kharandikar opinion poll says that 13% of Muslims in Uttar Pradesh will vote for the BJP, and only 6% will vote for the BSP. Despite a series of riots of which they have been at the receiving end, 47% of Muslims will still vote for the Samajwadi Party. The truth is that the Muslim voter is more silent than the Dalit voter. A lot of the calculations depend on who the candidates are, and that will not be known until the end of this month for some parties.
Mayawati has three challenges. First, since she has allied with the BJP in the past and once campaigned for Modi in Gujarat, the Samajwadi Party will tell Muslims that voting for her is like voting for Modi. Mayawati is going all out to correct this impression.
Secondly, the Aam Aadmi Party might cut into some of her votes, especially Muslim votes. But then the AAP will take away some of BJP's votes too. This biggest damage the AAP will cause everyone is among the “floating votes” – voters who do not strongly identify with any party on caste or communal lines.
Thirdly, a Modi wave might affect some of Mayawati's own Dalit voters. Two-thirds of all Dalit voters in Uttar Pradesh are Jatavs, the caste formerly engaged in leather work. Mayawati herself comes from the community. But the other one-third are sometimes amenable to gravitating towards greener pastures.
Still, these challenges are relatively minor. The four-time UP chief minister is the most underestimated politician this election season. Hurting the BJP's prospects in UP, Mayawati could be the biggest challenge in the BJP winning the 50 seats in UP that it needs to reach its goal of 200 seats in total. This would prevent Modi from becoming prime minister. And Mayawati will be the news a lot more as she begins her campaign.
