Last year, the top four seeds at Wimbledon were Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal – a hark back to the days when the ‘Big four’ maintained a stronghold on the top.

A year later, even as the upheaval in men’s tennis hierarchy continues, all eyes will still be on the Swiss, the Spaniard, the Serb and the Scot at the All England Club. Because at the oldest Grand Slam in tennis, the quadropoly has always been strong.

In the last 15 years, the Wimbledon trophy has been shared between only four men – Roger Federer (2003-07, 2009, 2012, 2017), Rafael Nadal (2008, 2010), Novak Djokovic (2011, 2014, 2015) and Andy Murray (2013, 2016).

This dominance extends to the final as well, with eight runner-up plates between them. Since 2003 when Federer beat Mark Philippoussis – there have been only 3 different runners-up, other than the Big four and Andy Roddick (2004, 2005, 2009) – Tomas Berdych (2010), Milos Raonic (2016), Marin Cilic (2017).

But will this trend continue?

As it stands, the Big Four have changed beyond recognition, from Federer being the 17 seed at the 2017 Australian Open to Andy Murray slipping to world No 156 with 11 months away. But the ‘Top Two’ still lead sharing the last six Grand Slams between them.

And while Nadal may have reclaimed the world No 1 spot last week, the the grass-court Major has only one outright favourite in the men’s singles – the defending champion and top seed, Federer.

Can Roger Federer defend his title?

Statistically, by form, and by popular demand, the eight-time champion is the man to beat. Only three men have won Wimbledon after 30 – Federer twice, and the legendary Rod Laver and Arthur Ashe. At 35 years and 342 days, he became the oldest male champion, lifting his record eighth title without dropping a set, a first even for him.

But in 2018, there have been several signs that Federer might not be able to replicate his scintillating run from 2017 starting with the obvious – age.

Graphic by Anand Katakam.

A month shy of his 37th birthday, the Swiss has reached finals of both the grass tournaments he has played, winning the ATP 250 at Stuttgart before failing to defend his title at Halle. Even before the three-set final loss to 21-year-old Borna Coric, Federer was not as fluent at the place he has won eight titles at, with a three-setter against the flamboyant Benoit Paire pushing him most.

In fact, he has defended only one title this year – Australian Open – losing the Indian Wells final despite holding match point and losing in the first round at Miami. The last time the Swiss defended his Wimbledon title was back in 2007 and the last time he was the top seed here was 2010, when he lost in the quarter-final.

However, he heads into his 20th Wimbledon (yes, indeed) with the numbers firmly on his side. Twenty years after he won the boys singles title and ten years after he lost his first Wimbledon final, to Nadal in what will go down as the greatest match at the venue, Federer is still the best on grass.

Graphic by Anand Katakam.

He has won 87.3% matches on grass in his career, but the numbers at the SW 19 are simply stunning. With 11 finals, eight titles, five of them consecutive, Federer’s overall win-loss record at The Championships is 91-11, which is the Open era record for the most singles victories.

He has won a whopping 93.5% of service games and 18.1 have been the traditional serve-and-volley with 1,285 aces. This surface was made for Federer’s style of play. And with a week of rest and the confidence of being at his happy hunting ground, he heads into his favourite Grand Slam as the man to watch out for.

Who can stop him?

A decade after he won his first Slam on grass in emphatic manner, Nadal will look to complete the rare Channel Slam for a third time. But winning the clay and grass double is among the most difficult feats in modern men’s tennis as we have seen in the recent past.

The King of Clay has a bittersweet relationship with grass, which comes so soon after he dominates on clay. After winning his 11 French Open title, he withdrew from Queen’s tennis saying his body needed rest. Since finishing as the runner-up at SW 19 in 2011, he has not got beyond the last 16.

In 2018, he has played only exhibition matches on grass and a title run will ultimately depend on his fitness and mental drive.

As for the other two, it is hard to see the embattled Djokovic and Murray win a Major with best-of-five sets through two weeks given their injury layoffs and tentative comebacks. But knowing the glorious uncertainty of sport and the track record of injury comebacks , it would be foolish to count them out.

Cilic, the dark horse

Then there is the other, more exciting prospect: that the 2018 Wimbledon winner could be a dark horse, someone other than the Big Four.

If one had to pick, it would be Marin Cilic. The tall Croat plays his best on grass, is a Grand Slam champion and was a finalist in two of the last four Majors. Last year, he finished as the runner-up to Federer, after a a painful foot blister hampered his movement midway through the final

But this year, he has already kicked one monkey off his back by winning the grass court title in Queens, saving a match point against Djokovic. This was the title he had squandered last year to Feliciano Lopez after being in a strong position. And he looks more than ready to make another deep run on grass.

As is almost customary to say in tennis circles, another wildcard could be younger player – Alexander Zverev, who has only just gotten the hang of five-setters in his first Slam quarter-finals at the French Open. But he has comes with just one match on grass this summer – a loss to eventual champion Borna Coric at Halle. Or Nick Kyrgios or Grigor Dimitrov, two of the most prodigiously talented players on tour. There can always be an unlikely candidate making a deep run – a la Kyle Edmund and Hyeon Chung at Australian Open, or Marco Cecchinato at French Open.

But heading into the oldest Grand Slam, all eyes will be on the oldest man to win Wimbledon as Federer looks to win an unprecedented ninth title at All England Club.