World Cup 2019, England preview: Transformed and top-ranked, can hosts live up to favourites tag?

No other team has undergone as complete and effective a transformation in the last four years as current world No 1 England in the One Day International arena. With cricket’s marquee event returning home after 20 years, they are the clear favourites to lift their first ever World Cup trophy.

The change was out of necessity, after getting knocked out of the 2015 World Cup by Bangladesh. England underwent an overhaul then, replacing head coach Peter Moores with Trevor Bayliss but stuck with Eoin Morgan who made the most of that debacle to build a unit full of proven match-winners. Jonny Bairstow, Jos Buttler, Jason Roy, Joe Root, Adil Rashid, Moeen Ali, Jofra Archer: any of these can single-handedly win you a match.

The only question the hosts will face when they start their campaign in the opener against South Africa is whether a team of match-winners, much like the many Proteas teams over the years, can be a tournament-winning one.

England lost their first warm-up game against Australia, going down against some disciplined bowling and their own errors. The hosts bounced back against Afghanistan and looked settled despite their injury concerns. However, given the tag of favourites and the pressure of playing at home, the good work of the last four years won’t amount to much if they can’t translate it to silverware.

History at World Cup

Always the bridesmaid when it came to the World Cup, England have barely even come close as wedding guests in the last two decades. Hosting the first three editions of the World Cup by virtue of being the ‘Home of Cricket’, they reached just the one final. They have three runner-up plates – 1979, 1987 and 1992 – but since losing to Pakistan in the last of those, they have not even come close.

While they couldn’t make home advantage the first three editions, their performance in 1999 was their worst until the latest edition. The exit in 2015 was perhaps the one that hit the hardest because of the response it elicited. In a format designed to ensure the top eight teams reach the quarter-final, England managed to beat only Scotland and Afghanistan. The loss to Bangladesh was the final nail in the coffin as they were unable to chase even 275.

Since 2015 World Cup

In the last four years, England have arguably mastered the 50-over format. They have the highest percentage of ODI wins across all teams, winning 58 off their 88 matches. (Lost 23 and tied 1 while six were no result.)

They have not lost a home series since 2015, however they went down in the 2017 Champions Trophy semi-finals to Pakistan. The last time they lost an ODI series of more than one match was against India away in early 2017. Meanwhile, they have won 3-0 against West Indies in West Indies, 4-1 against Australia in Australia and a 5-0 whitewash of Australia at home as well as 2-1 win over India.

What makes this team tick? The new England is built on the cornerstone of explosive batting. They attack right from the start and bat deep with all-rounders bolstering the lower order. Their top three is probably the most intimidating in ODI cricket right now.

In the last four years, they have crossed the 350-run mark 16 times with scores in excess of 400 on four occasions including the two highest innings totals in ODI history – 481 against Australia last year and 444 against Pakistan in 2016. Before this, they had reached 350 only twice. They have also completed four of their top five successful chases during in this time.

Three England players – Root, Morgan and Roy – feature in the top 10 ODI run-getters since the 2015 World Cup. Additionally, three of the team’s top five highest individual scores have come in this time with Jason Roy having two of them.

The bowling has been steady as well, with leg-spinner Adil Rashid leading the charts. Rashid is the highest wicket-taker, and by a significant margin, in the last four years. With the effective Moeen Ali and a pace attack of newly-recruited Jofra Archer, Chris Woakes, Liam Plunkett and Ben Stokes in their lineup, Morgan has enough options to work with.

Archer’s eligibility to play comes as a big boost because the seam-bowling unit was seemingly missing a match-winner. They may have ruffled a few feathers in the process omitting the reliable David Willey for the newcomer, but his performances in thew few opportunities he has got in the England shirt show that he might well be the wild card.

Keys to qualifying for semi-finals

If England continue to do what they have been doing in the last two years, they seem like a shoo-in for semi-finals in the all-play-all format. The pitches are expected to be batting-friendly and the prediction is that big-hitters will make merry in home conditions.

However, if there is a evident flaw in this new-look England, it is their batting’s susceptibility to good bowling on a helpful track. Like in the 2017 Champions Trophy semi-final against Pakistan where they slumped to 211 all out, a dry or tricky pitch can be the undoing of the strong batting lineup. West Indies exploited this chink earlier in the year and Australia did so as well in the warm up. And quality seam bowling is also what they will face in their opener against South Africa.

How the batting counters this will depend their approach as well as on the tracks they encounter. Can Roy, Bairstow and Co the alter their attacking instinct when faced with a moving ball? Can the high-risk, high-reward style be tempered with caution when playing in unfriendly conditions? Can the middle-order’s mastery of spin extend to the wily wrist-spin that sub-continent teams will offer?

England’s approach with the bat might also be the the chink teams will look to exploit over the month-long course of the group stage.

X-Factor at CWC 2019

Jos Buttler is, perhaps, the obvious choice but with the kind of form they have shown, the X-Factor for England is not one player, but two: the opening pair of Jason Roy and Jonny Bairstow.

Ever since Bairstow replaced Alex Hales as Roy’s opening partner, the duo have formed a destructive partnership at the top.

In the 26 ODI innings they have opened in together, their average partnership is 64.72 – the highest of any openers in the history of ODI cricket (minimum 20 innings), according to ICC. They also have seven hundred and seven fifty partnerships in that time.

Bairstow was in stunning form in the Indian Premier League as well, forming a potent opening pair with David Warner for Sunrisers Hyderabad. He scored 445 runs at an average of over 55 with the tournament’s highest score of 114.

Already, they showed their form in the final warm-up match against Afghanistan. If the two can continue giving England blistering starts through the World Cup, it will be hard to stop the hosts’ formidable batting order.

Squad: Eoin Morgan (capt), Moeen Ali, Jonny Bairstow (wk), Jos Buttler (wk), Tom Curran, Liam Plunkett, Adil Rashid, Joe Root, Jason Roy, Ben Stokes, Chris Woakes, Mark Wood, Jofra Archer, James Vince, Liam Dawson.

Fixtures