Fewer draws, more home wins: How has lack of fans, extra subs affected Europe’s top football leagues

‘What is football without its fans?’

This popular phrase, attributed to Celtic’s European Cup winning-manager Jock Stein, has often been used to reiterate the importance of its supporters to the world’s most popular sport.

But the Covid-19 pandemic has made it seem outdated within the space of a few months. The sport of football that was abruptly brought to a halt due to the coronavirus is back on its feet for now, but without its fans. A prospect quite unthinkable not long ago is now the new normal.

The belief is that fans would be able to return to the stadiums in the near future but it would never be the same as the protocols are certain to affect fans as it has affected the players, coaching staff and federations.

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Fist pumps have replaced handshakes, a packed bench has made way for substitutes sitting a few metres apart in a dispersed bunch and managers are now allowed five substitutions instead of the usual three. With Europe’s top leagues now into their fourth week since resumption, these changes have slowly become part of the fabric.

The absence of fans in the stadiums though, has been the biggest change of all. With the supporters being the driving force behind a team’s success, here’s a look at some early numbers that reveal how playing behind closed doors has affected results in Europe’s top four football leagues, namely, Premier League, La Liga, Serie A and Bundesliga.

Premier League

With most expecting the absence of fans to hamper the performance of the home team, matches behind closed doors in the Premier League only seemed to help the home sides. The number of home wins in the Premier League has seen a 13% increase since the league resumed.

However, the data shows that the away teams have also improved their performances, but the shift is not as prominent as that of the home teams. There’s been a 9% increase in away wins in matches played behind closed doors.

As a consequence of the above factors, the biggest change so far has been the dip in the number of draws. Before the lockdown, 41% of the matches in the 2019-’20 Premier League season had ended in draws. That number is down to 20% in matches after the lockdown.

One of the reasons for the low number of draws in the Premier League could be low levels of fitness of its players and also the introduction of five substitutions that help managers turn games around.

There’s been a 6% increase in goals scored in the Premier League in second halves of the games since the lockdown, pointing to the fact that the extra substitutions have influenced the results of the games.

In terms of goals scored, a similar pattern can be seen. The home teams have scored 63% of the goals since the restart, up from 55% of total goals scored before lockdown.

The early trend of results also suggest that the changes after Covid-19 pandemic seem to have affected the teams at the lower end of the table a lot more than those at the top. Premier League’s big seven-teams: Liverpool, Manchester City, Leicester City, Chelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur are unbeaten at home since the restart. The top seven teams combined have won 13 out of the 16 matches at home so far. The win percentage for teams at the top in home games is up to 81% from 62% before the lockdown.

In contrast, the bottom six teams in the Premier League have won just three at home out of 17 matches with their win percentage at home dropping to 18% from 28%. It’s still early days though and this particular trend could change as the season progresses. However, it is quite evident that the extra substitutions are likely to help teams with deeper squads.

La Liga

The story in La Liga is partly similar to that of the Premier League with there being a 14% drop in the number of draws. However, unlike the Premier League, the away sides have been able to profit a lot more than the home teams.

There’s been a 9% increase in the number of away wins in Spain’s top flight with the number of home wins too seeing a rise of 6%.

The lack of fans has perhaps helped away sides push on and convert a draw into a win in La Liga.

The shift in the percentage of away wins reflects in the goals scored as well. Away sides in La Liga are have seen a 7% increase in goals scored with the home sides experiencing an equivalent drop in goals scored.

As far as the performances of the top four teams in Spain are concerned, just like the Premier League, their performances at home have become better behind closed doors with an 11% increase in number of home wins. Similarly, the bottom six sides have experienced a dip in the number of wins and draws at home with their win percentage falling from 31% to 20%.

In terms of the impact of five substitutions in concerned, Spanish teams have been able to profit from these from a defensive point of view. Goals scored in the second half of games has seen a decline of 5% since the restart.

It could also be a result of better fitness levels of players compared to the Premier League as teams from La Liga got more time to prepare for the restart. In addition, La Liga is a lot less dynamic in nature and hence it has helped teams who are already enjoying leads.

Serie A

In Italy, the results are pretty similar to the Premier League. Just like La Liga and the English top-flight league, there has been a decrease in the number of draws. Italy has seen a 20% drop in the number of draws with the post-lockdown phase.

Just like the Premier League, there has been a greater increase in the number of home wins as compared to away wins.

If goalscoring is concerned, there has been just a 1% shift in the percentage of goals scored by teams playing at home and away that is much lesser in degree in the swing that can be seen in the results of teams playing home and away.

The top seven teams have enjoyed much better time at home with the win percentage rising to 82% from 59% earlier in the season.

As far as the impact of substitution is concerned, there has been a 2% change in the proportion of goals scored in the first and second halves of football. Like La Liga, Serie A too is a very tactical league and physical elements count for much less in comparison to the Premier League.

“In Italy, if you are leading by two goals, the game is over. You can manage the game quite easily. But in England, that’s not the case. You are not safe even at 2-0 and the game can change any time,” Antonio Conte had told Thierry Henry in an interview to Sky Sports during his time as Chelsea manager.

Bundesliga

The German league is where the teams playing on the road have benefitted the most from empty stadiums. In Bundesliga too, the number of draws have reduced by 17%, but the away sides who have been able to convert draws into wins.

In Bundesliga, there has been an 18% increase in the number of away wins since the restart. The home win percentage though hasn’t been affected a lot as it has seen a drop of just 1%.

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Like every other league, the goal scored reflects the trend of the home-away win percentage shift. There’s been a 8% increase in goals for away side since the restart, however, the shift isn’t as prominent as compared to the rise in the number of away wins in the German top flight.

Like Italy, there has been no major change in the goals scored in first and second halves of games in Bundesliga after the introduction of the five substitution rules.

With most of Europe still not free from Covid-19 pandemic and with a threat of a second wave looming, football in the continent may continue without fans in the stands. Games behind closed doors are not the same in terms of spectacle, but for players it has become business as usual. As they say, the show must go on.

The data is based on matches played in Premier League, La Liga, Serie A and Bundesliga till July 8, 2020