The final gameweek of quite a crazy Fantasy Premier League season is here. Postponed matches, lot of injuries and a plethora of double and blank gameweeks made the 2020-’21 campaign a rollercoaster than this experience usually is.
While the league’s title race was largely pedestrian in the recent weeks, the FPL race at the very top tells it all. Norway’s Ola Hovday leads with 2601 points just a point ahead of Lebanon’s Mohamad Abdallah who’s a point behind with a score of 2600. There are few more managers not so far behind who would be eyeing the top spot.
Premier League: Who needs what to qualify for Champions League, Europa League and Conference League?
But for the many earthlings who are probably looking to get into the top million or thousands or looking to simply win their respective mini-leagues, GW38 is the final chance to dance.
Historically, GW38 has always been a high-scoring affair with most teams playing freely without any pressure. FPL managers would be hoping for one after a fairly average week in GW37.
Fixture Difficulty
For one and only one time in the season, there’s no scope to look too far ahead. It’s what is directly in front of us. The GW38 fixtures alone dictate who’s the best assets are. What’s happened in the season so far could not be more irrelevant. For FPL managers, it’s a kind of a one-week free hit where they can just go for it, purse willing of course.
Liverpool, Fulham, Burnley, West Ham, Leeds United, Newcastle United and Sheffield United have the easiest last match on paper. However, the Reds and the Hammers are two teams who still have unfinished business in the league. Leeds too would be looking to end their season on a high in front of their fans. So players from these three teams can be targeted.
With Manchester United and Manchester City likely to rotate ahead of their European finals, it’s best to avoid their players.
Fixture Difficulty Ratings
| Team | GW 38 rating | GW38 opponent |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 3 | BHA(H) |
| Aston Villa | 4 | CHE(H) |
| Brighton | 4 | ARS(A) |
| Burnley | 2 | SHU(A) |
| Chelsea | 3 | AVL(A) |
| Crystal Palace | 3 | LIV(A) |
| Everton | 4 | EVE(H) |
| Fulham | 2 | NEW(H) |
| Leeds | 2 | WBA(H) |
| Leicester | 3 | TOT(H) |
| Liverpool | 2 | CRY(H) |
| Man City | 3 | EVE(H) |
| Man Utd | 3 | WOL(A) |
| Newcastle | 2 | FUL(A) |
| Sheffield Utd | 2 | BUR(H) |
| Southampton | 4 | WHU(A) |
| Spurs | 4 | LEI(A) |
| West Brom | 3 | LEE(A) |
| West Ham | 2 | SOU(H) |
| Wolves | 4 | MUN(H) |
The big ins and outs
Leeds and Liverpool players dominated the purchases ahead of the final gameweek with four out of the top five most transferred in players being from those two teams.
Newcastle’s flying midfielder Joe Willock completes the list.
Most transferred (in) players ahead of GW38
| Pos | Player | Club |
|---|---|---|
| FWD | Bamford | LEE |
| MID | Salah | LIV |
| MID | Willock | NEW |
| MID | Harrison | LEE |
| DEF | Alexander-Arnold | LIV |
Two of the top five scoring players of the season – Bruno Fernandes and Son Heung-min feature in the most transferred out players ahead of GW38.
Most transferred (out) players ahead of GW38
| Position | Player | Club |
|---|---|---|
| DEF | Cancelo | MCI |
| FWD | Calvert-Lewin | EVE |
| MID | Jota | LIV |
| MID | Fernandes | MUN |
| MID | Son | TOT |
Top picks for Gameweek 38
Whether you bring them in through transfers or (luckily enough) have them in your squad already, these are the five hottest selections for GW 38:
Mohamed Salah (Liverpool): It has not been the Egyptian’s best season in FPL, as he has let down managers many GWs where he was tipped to do well, but the fact that he could still win the golden boot award if he outscores Harry Kane in GW38 makes him an automatic pick. While that would serve as an added motivation, Liverpool would be looking to seal a spot in next season’s Champions League in front of their fans at Anfield. With Crystal Palace being leaky all season and having nothing to play for they are likely to offer little resistance.
Michail Antonio (West Ham United): When the West Ham forward is fit he is usually among the goals. Since his return from injury, he has scored thrice in four matches. Up against a Southampton side that are worst for xGA (Expected Goals Allowed) in the last four matches, Antonio has a great chance of racking up the points. He is also fourth in the league for xG (Expected Goals) over the last four gameweeks.
Kieran Tierney (Arsenal): One of Arsenal’s players of the season, Tierney has been excellent in the left-back role. Facing a Brighton side that are bottom for xG in the league across the last four weeks, the Gunners have the best chance of a clean sheet in GW38. Mikel Arteta’s side has the third-best defensive record in the division. With Tierney, don’t discount the chances of an assist as Arsenal chase an improbable spot in Europe.
Patrick Bamford (Leeds United): Bamford has been truly phenomenal this season and once again showed his class last week as he bagged a goal and an assist. The fifth-highest scoring player this season, Bamford could end the season on a high against a relegated West Brom side that have leaked goals all season. Expect the electric atmosphere at Elland Road to only aid Leeds’ and Bamford’s cause.
Sadio Mane (Liverpool): The Senegalese midfielder has had a quiet season by his standards but he could end it with a bang. With returns in each of his last three starts, Mane could come into his own against his favourite opponent. He has ten goals in 13 appearances against Crystal Palace. His low ownership also make him a top differential option.
Top differential picks for GW38:
Ferran Torres (Manchester City): Having been rested last week, Torres is a likely starter against Everton at home, the sight for Manchester City’s title party. He has come into his own at the fag end of the season and scored a hat-trick against Newcastle United in GW36. With less than 5% ownership, he could be the difference-maker in your team in GW38 as Pep Guardiola rotates one final time this season.
Timo Werner (Chelsea): The German has been known more for his misses this campaign but has been much more involved of late. With 12 assists to his name, he is among the top five providers this season and he could be a threat against Aston Villa.
Roberto Firmino (Liverpool): Another striker usually criticised for his lack of goals but who has come into his own over the last few weeks. Firmino has scored three in his last three matches and his return to form couldn’t have been better time for Liverpool. The Brazilian also netted twice in the reverse fixture earlier this season. With little over 5% ownership, he is a top differential option for GW38.
Captaincy Conundrum
Plenty of candidates for the armband ahead of the final gameweek.
Salah, Kane, Bamford and Antonio could all post big returns this week. Mane has also emerged a good differential pick for captaincy in GW38. With Liverpool in such form and playing at home, Trent Alexander-Arnold is always a name in consideration. Andy Robertson’s big haul last week means he is also an alternative.
For a safe bet, Salah is certainly the best choice for captaincy as the chances of him hauling are quite high. If you are looking to preserve your rank, then he is the best bet. A Mane or an Antonio could be better bets if you are desperately looking to boost your rank and pull a rabbit out of your hat in the mini-leagues.
But sometimes it’s better to go in with a safe captaincy choice and opt for more differential players because if a popular player hauls, the damage to your rank can be severe.
And thus comes to an end our series for the season, tweet to us with your feedback @thefield_in.
FPL Deadline for GW38: 7:00 pm IST, Sunday, May 23, 2021.