While India would have to generate about 7,000 gigawatts of renewable energy to meet net zero carbon emissions by 2070, harnessing beyond 1,500 GW could come with significant land conflicts and climate risks, a study released on Tuesday has found.

Researchers at the non-profit think tank Council on Energy, Environment and Water concluded that India has over 24,000 GW of renewable energy potential that has not been harnessed yet.

Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Ladakh have the highest potential for renewable energy development, the study found.

However, developing the infrastructure to support renewable energy generation in addition to 1,500 GW will introduce challenges that could keep the country from meeting its goal, according to the research.

The progress could be hindered by population density, land conflicts and climate risks.

The study used detailed grid cells of five kilometres by five kilometres and mapped areas with solar and wind potential based on the Global Solar and Wind Atlas. The researchers excluded areas that are prone to floods and cyclones, or located in seismic zones. They also excluded regions with ongoing land conflicts, those reserved for defence purposes and protected forests.

The study found that around 71% of India’s wind potential and 73% of its solar potential are located in areas with a population density equal to or greater than 250 people per square kilometre. This means that access to land resources there is limited. Therefore, renewable energy solutions need to account for existing infrastructure and congested land.

The study also found that 65% of the wind potential and 59% of the solar potential are located in areas with land conflicts.

For instance, Odisha has a high renewable energy potential and adequate infrastructure to support substantial investment. However, researchers noted that districts such as Koraput and Kalahandi have historically been mired in conflict around mining and forestry, which could complicate attempts to harness renewable energy in the region.

The researchers estimated that the first 60 GW of renewable energy would have no significant constraints. However, as efforts to develop the requisite infrastructure continue, the agencies involved could face the choice of building resources in densely populated areas, or in places where land prices are very high.

Renewable energy development beyond the 750-GW level will need investments in earthquake risk zones, and that beyond 3,000 GW will require addressing constraints such as land price, population density and conflicts in tandem.

India has fixed 2070 as the target year to achieve net zero.

Net zero refers to a state in which the influence of greenhouse gases, emitted by human activity, is completely negated. This can, in theory, be achieved by reducing emissions, including by tapping into renewable energy and introducing mechanisms to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Green hydrogen

The researchers also concluded that India can produce up to 40 million tonnes per annum of green hydrogen at a cost lower than $3.5, or Rs 294, per kilogram. Additionally, in western and southern India, 56 million tonnes per annum of green hydrogen can be produced in areas that do not face significant water availability issues.

The researchers recommended that the government invest in quality data about green hydrogen prospects, encourage renewable energy development on existing public and private land, assess capacity challenges with new energy sources and involve stakeholders in the early stages of the process to avoid potential conflicts.

“While our RE [renewable energy] potential is vast, the road to net zero is fraught with challenges,” said Arunabha Ghosh, the chief executive officer of the Council on Energy, Environment and Water. “This study, for the first time, goes into granular details of the county’s landmass to map out where we can build out renewable energy and green hydrogen projects while addressing the challenges of land, people, and compounding, non-linear climate risks.”

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