The number of Indian citizens seeking asylum in the United States grew eightfold between 2020 and 2023, according to a new study by researchers from Johns Hopkins University.

The number rose from 6,000 asylum seekers in 2020 to 51,000 in 2023.

“The vast majority of asylum seekers are economic migrants who face limited economic opportunities at home and thus seek employment opportunities abroad,” stated the study. “We can be confident of this claim since we see very little evidence of India’s poor marginalized communities or those from regions with ongoing antimilitancy operations by the government among asylum seekers.”

The asylum seekers are “primarily Punjabi and Gujarati”, the study cites US data to suggest. These groups “from some of India’s wealthiest states…are more likely capable of bearing the high costs of migrating to the West through unauthorised channels”.

The authors pointed out that Indian Muslims, members of Scheduled Caste groups and those residing in conflict-ridden areas like Kashmir and the Adivasi belt were “notably absent from asylum claims”, while India’s targeting of Sikh separatists abroad bolstered Punjabi asylum seekers’ claims of persecution.

The study, Unauthorized Indians in the United States: Trends and Developments, by Abby Budiman and Devesh Kapur, was published on February 10 against the backdrop of the US deporting at least 335 Indian nationals since February 5.

The deportations are part of a wider crackdown by US President Donald Trump’s administration.

Budiman and Kapur relied on data from government and non-government sources to map trends related to undocumented Indian migrants living in the US.

The US grants asylum to persons fleeing persecution or other harm in their home countries. The persons are required to undergo a “credible fear screening” conducted by an asylum officer and if they pass it, they are permitted to present their asylum case in an immigration court.

The researchers cautioned that they could not accurately determine the states of origin and religion of Indian asylum seekers. “However, available information on the languages spoken by asylum seekers can provide some evidence to this puzzle,” the study states.

Budiman and Kapur found that since 2001, Punjabi speakers consistently emerged as the largest group of Indian migrants seeking asylum in the US.

“Between FY [financial year] 2001 and 2022, two-thirds (66%) of asylum cases involving Indian nationals were filed by Punjabi speakers,” stated the study. “This strongly suggests that individuals from Punjab (and Haryana) are the primary group of Indian migrants encountered at the US border and filing asylum requests.”

The other common languages spoken by Indian asylum seekers were Hindi (14%), English (8%) and Gujarati (7%).

Punjabi speakers were more likely to have their asylum requests approved by US immigration courts than those speaking other Indian languages.

Citing data from the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse, the study stated that 63% of cases involving Punjabi speakers were granted asylum. This number was 58% for Hindi speakers and 25% for Gujarati speakers.

The findings on linguistic disparities among Indian asylum seekers are particularly striking when viewed in conjunction with economic data from the census, stated the study.

As per data from the 2019-2022 American Community Survey, among all foreign-born Indians in the US, those who report speaking Punjabi at home have the lowest average personal earnings at $48,000, or nearly Rs 41.68 lakh, followed by those who speak Gujarati ($58,000, or nearly Rs 50.37 lakh).

On January 24, India’s Ministry of External Affairs said it was committed to repatriating Indian nationals residing abroad without proper documentation. This came after reports that India was working with the Trump administration to deport around 18,000 undocumented or visa-overstaying Indian nationals from the US.

After meeting Trump in Washington on February 13, Prime Minister Narendra Modi also stated that India is willing to take back its nationals living illegally in the US.

Removals of Indian nationals from US

The study notes that US Immigration and Customs Enforcement reported the removal of over 1,500 Indian nationals from the United States in the financial year 2024.

“Removal” refers to several types of deportations and related processes, which include but are not limited to repatriations, expedited removals and voluntary departures.

“An increasingly larger share of Indian nationals were repatriated following arrests initially made by CBP [Customs and Border Protection] at the border, rather than by ICE [Immigration and Customs Enforcement] within the country’s interior,” stated the study.

In the financial year 2024, 90% of deportations stemmed from initial arrests made by Customs and Border Protection, a sharp increase compared to 10% in 2003.

“This trend mirrors the recent surge in border apprehensions involving Indian migrants,” said the study. “Overall, however, reflecting their paltry share among unauthorised immigrants in the US, Indian nationals account for only a small fraction of all migrants deported from the US, rarely exceeding 1% of the total.”