Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Wednesday said that South Indian states would not lose a single Lok Sabha seat on account of a proposed nationwide delimitation exercise.

Delimitation is the process of redrawing the territorial boundaries of an electorate, in this case Lok Sabha constituencies. Article 82 of the Constitution states that after every census is completed, the allocation of Lok Sabha seats to each state must be adjusted based on changes in their population.

“The Modi government has made it clear in Lok Sabha that after delimitation, on pro rata basis, not a single seat will be reduced in any southern state,” Shah said at an event in Tamil Nadu’s Coimbatore. “And I want to reassure the public of South India that Modi ji has kept your interest in mind to make sure that not even one seat is reduced pro rata. And whatever increase is there, southern states will get a fair share, there is no reason to doubt this.”

Shah’s comments came a day after Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin announced an all-party meeting on March 5 in Chennai to discuss the impact of the proposed delimitation exercise, which he claimed could cost his state eight Lok Sabha seats.

“You are lying to Tamil people and misleading them with false claims about delimitation,” Shah said in response. “I demand your reply, why are you making these false claims?”

The composition of the current Lok Sabha is based on the 1971 census. According to the 84th Amendment Act of 2001, the constituency boundaries were frozen until the first census after 2026, which would be due in 2031.

However, southern states have expressed concerns that population-based delimitation could give an undue advantage to northern and central states in the Lok Sabha.

“As of now, Tamil Nadu has 39 Lok Sabha seats,” Stalin was quoted as saying by The Hindu. “The delimitation exercise is likely to reduce the number of Lok Sabha seats to 31. It is not just a reduction in numbers. It is about our rights. The voice of Tamil Nadu is being suppressed in the name of delimitation. Transcending political differences, everyone should come together and raise our voice.”

Stalin said: “Tamil Nadu is compelled to wage a major battle for its rights. The threat of delimitation is hanging over the southern States like a sword of Damocles.”

He claimed that Tamil Nadu, a leader in human development indices, faces a threat from the Union government’s proposed delimitation process despite its success in population control through family planning, women’s education and healthcare advancements.

In February 2024, the Tamil Nadu Assembly passed a resolution against the proposed delimitation.

In a 2019 paper, Milan Vaishnav and Jamie Hintson from the American think tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, used 2026 population projections to estimate that the Lok Sabha’s membership would need to be expanded to 846 seats.

Of this, Uttar Pradesh, the largest Hindi belt state, would have 143 seats, up from its current 80. Similarly, Bihar’s seats would nearly double to 79 from 40.

Overall, the proportion of Lok Sabha seats in 10 Hindi belt states and Union Territories – Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand – would jump to around 48% from about 42% right now.

Correspondingly, several states outside the Hindi belt such as Kerala, West Bengal and all of the North East would see their representation drop. For Kerala, its representation in the Lok Sabha would drop from nearly 3.7% to around 2.4% as the House’s capacity increases, according to Vaishnav and Hintson.

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