Rainfall during the southwest monsoon season over the country this year is likely to be above normal, the India Meteorological Department said on Tuesday.

The weather agency said that the country is expected to get 105% of the long period average rainfall, which refers to the mean rainfall during the four-month monsoon season over the last 50 years. The season generally begins in June and starts to retreat by September.

“There is a 30% chance of normal rainfall, a 33% chance of above-normal rainfall and a 26% chance of excess precipitation during the monsoon season,” Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the department’s director-general, said at a press conference.

As per the weather agency, rainfall between 96% and 104% of the long period average, which is 87 cm, is considered “normal”. Rainfall less than 90% of this measure is considered “deficient”, between 90% and 95% “below normal”, between 105% and 110% “above normal” and more than 110% is considered “excess” precipitation.

While large parts of Tamil Nadu and the northeastern region are likely to get below-normal rainfall, the rain-deficient parts of Marathwada and the adjoining Telangana are expected to witness above-normal showers, the weather agency said.

Parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Tamil Nadu, Bihar and the northeastern states are likely to experience below-normal rainfall during monsoon, while normal to above-normal monsoon rainfall is expected in large parts of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal, it added.

“Currently, Neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region,” the India Meteorological Department added. “However the atmospheric circulation features are similar to La Niña conditions.”

The El Niño Southern Oscillation is a recurring climate pattern involving changes in the temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. La Niña is the periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. This phenomenon is known to help rainfall activity.

The weather agency also said that according to climate model forecasts Neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions were likely to continue during monsoon.

“At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are present over the Indian Ocean and the latest Climate models forecast indicates that the Neutral IOD conditions are likely to continue during the southwest monsoon season,” it added.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in the sea surface temperatures between the western parts of the Indian Ocean near Africa and the eastern parts of the ocean near Indonesia.