Monsoon will hit the south Andaman sea and Nicobar islands on Sunday, the India Meteorological Department predicted on Friday. The rains first hit the Andaman and Nicobar Islands every year and then take about a fortnight to reach the Kerala coast.

“We are constantly monitoring the conditions over the islands,” An unidentified official of the Met department told Mint. “The wind flow is strong over the area, which might lead to an early arrival of monsoon over the Andaman also.” In 2016, Andaman and Nicobar islands received the first monsoon showers around May 18.

In April, the IMD has said that this year’s monsoon would be normal. The chances of a normal monsoon looks brighter with the IMD predicting lower chances of El Nino developing in the coming months.

“There are more chances of Pacific conditions remaining neutral [in the monsoon period] but uncertainty persists,” D Sivananda Pai, IMD’s lead forecaster had said. “A clearer picture will emerge by next month, when we shall release an updated monsoon forecast.”

The US Climate Prediction Centre is also of a similar view. “Relative to last month, the forecaster consensus reflects slightly lower chances of El Nino [~45%], in part due to the conflicting model guidance and lack of a clear shift toward El Nino in the observational data,” the the agency said in a bulletin.

El Nino is the name given to the climatic changes in the equatorial Pacific region and beyond that often affects the southwest monsoon in India.