The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance may fall 20 seats short of the magic mark of 272 if the Lok Sabha were held today, according to the Times Now-VMR opinion poll.

According to the survey of 15,731 of voters, conducted between January 14 and January 25, the NDA is estimated to win 252 seats, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance 147 seats and others 144.

The BJP is in for a shock in Uttar Pradesh, where it is projected to win just 27 of 80 seats, a steep fall from the 73 seats it had bagged in the 2014 General Elections, the poll said. The BJP’s vote share in the state is likely to decline 4.4% while the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj party, which have formed an alliance, are projected to win 51 seats.

In Madhya Pradesh, which was one of the three states that the Congress won in the Assembly elections in December, the BJP will to win 23 of 29 seats, four seats fewer than in 2014, the poll said. The Congress is set to win six seats, according to the opinion poll.

The BJP had done a clean sweep in Rajasthan in 2014. However, this time around the saffron party is expected to lose eight seats, with its tally down to 17. In Chhattisgarh, where the Congress swept the Assembly polls, the BJP’s tally is expected to go down from 10 in 2014 to five. The National Democratic Alliance is expected to win 25 seats in Bihar, down from 30 in 2014, with the five seats going to the Congress and its allies.

In West Bengal, the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress is estimated to win 32 seats while the BJP said to improve its tally, jumping from two seats in 2014 to nine this time. According to the poll, the Congress is likely to win one seat while the Left Front will not open its account in all likelihood.

The saffron party is also expected to make huge gains in Odisha, where its tally may jump from one seat to 13. The BJP’s gains will come at the expense of the ruling Biju Janata Dal, whose seat share is likely to go down from 20 seats in 2014 to eight.

The BJP, however, is not likely to have much impact in the southern states, the opinion poll predicted. In Tamil Nadu, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance is expected to make huge gains and win 35 out of 39 seats while the ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam is likely to win a mere four seats, down from 37 seats in 2014. In Kerala, which has 20 seats, the BJP is expected to open its account while the Congress-led United Democratic Front is expected to bag 16 seats and the Left Democratic Front three.

The BJP and the Congress are likely to win 14 seats each in Karnataka. In the last General Elections, the saffron party had won 17 seats while the Congress had won 11. The YSR Congress Party led by Jagan Mohan Reddy may be the biggest gainers in Andhra Pradesh, winning 23 of 25 seats while the ruling Telugu Desam Party is expected to win only two seats. The ruling party had won 15 seats in 2014 while the YSRCP had won eight. In Telangana, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi is likely to secure 10 seats, while the Congress may win five and the BJP one seat.

However, the saffron party is projected to continue its dominance in the North East. In Assam, where 14 seats are at stake, the party is expected to increase its tally to eight while the Congress is likely to retain the three seats it won in 2014. In the other states in the region, may win 9 of 11 seats while the United Progressive Alliance may manage to win only one.

In Maharashtra, where the BJP has had a tense relationship with its alliance partner Shiv Sena in recent years, it is expected to win 43 of 48 seats, one more than its tally in 2014.