India's defence minister wishes he had the freedom to threaten pre-emptive nuclear strikes
Manohar Parrikar believes the No First Use doctrine is not unpredictable enough.
Manohar Parrikar wants to be edgy. India's Defence Minister is unhappy about how clearly defined the country's nuclear doctrine is, and he's even willing to say so in public. Speaking at a book launch on Thursday, Parrikar said India's declared No First Use policy is not unpredictable enough.
"Why a lot of people say that India has No First Use policy. Why should I bind myself to a… I should say I am a responsible nuclear power and I will not use it irresponsibly. This is my thinking," Parrikar said. "Some of them may immediately tomorrow flash that Parrikar says that nuclear doctrine has changed. It has not changed in any government policy but my concept, I am also an individual. And as an individual, I get a feeling sometime why do I say that I am not going to use it first."
Barring his insistence on this being a personal opinion — even if it is, it's only natural that people will take it as an indication of the government's thought process — what Parrikar is doing here is questioning the very basis of the No First Use policy.
“If a written down strategy exists, or if you take a stand, on the nuclear aspects, you are actually giving away your strength," he said.
In fact, this has been in the air ever since Narendra Modi came to power, when a number of experts called on him to reexamine India's nuclear doctrine. The Bharatiya Janata Party's manifesto also calls for a reevaluation.
The No First Use policy, stated first in 2003, commits India to only using nuclear weapons when attacked. Its aims are said to be both diplomatic and strategic: It reduces nuclear unpredictability in the neighbourhood, while projecting the image of India as the more responsible nation. On the way, it also saves India from the task of having to build costly systems focused around a pre-emptive strike.
Many have argued that the deterrence of such a policy, since it is meant to make Pakistan feel less threatened and hopefully convince Islamabad not to suddenly lash out with nuclear weapons, may not be strong enough. To criticise a policy that's very emphasis is predictability for not being predictable enough is already ironic enough.
Add to that the fact the person questioning it is the defence minister, meaning rival nations might doubt India's commitment to the NFU policy overall, thereby undermining it without actually articulating a different one in the first place. Even if this is just Parrikar's personal opinion, he's certainly helping put in place the unpredictability he so desires.