The Bharatiya Janata Party's former president and leader from Nagpur met Raj Thackeray, the head of the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, earlier this week and requested him not to contest the forthcoming general election.
Raj Thackeray has not yet said whether he will accede to this request, but the meeting piqued Uddhav Thackeray, Raj Thackeray's cousin and the head of the Shiv Sena, with whom the BJP already has an alliance and seat-sharing arrangement for the 48 Lok Sabha constituencies in Maharashtra. Ramdas Athavale's Republican Party of India is also part of the alliance.
In the Shiv Sena-run newspaper, Saamna, Uddhav said that there were communication problems within the BJP, while Sanjay Raut, a party MP, said Gadkari's meeting with Raj threatened the alliance. The MNS broke away from the Shiv Sena in 2006, and the two nativist parties compete for a similar base of Marathi-speaking voters.
"What the BJP did is not in the interest of the alliance," said Rahul Narvekar, a spokesman for the Shiv Sena. "Before you talk to an entity beyond the alliance you must consult all your partners." As for the possibility of the MNS joining the alliance, Raut, who is also executive editor of Saamna, said there was no question of that. "Enough is enough," he said.
Why is the BJP playing this game? After all, earlier this year, it decisively chose the Shiv Sena over Raj, after keeping things open for months. It is well known that Raj Thackeray has a good personal rapport with Narendra Modi, the BJP's prime ministerial candidate, in contrast with Uddhav, whose relations with Gujarat's chief minister have been distinctly frosty.
Observers say that this is an indication that the BJP, which believes it has a fighting chance to form the next government in Delhi, wants to maximise its chances in every Lok Sabha constituency. As a result, it is playing a delicate and possibly dangerous game of carrying both Thackerays along.
"The BJP's alliance with Shiv Sena is not out of love and affection, but obligation," said a commentator who did not wish to be named. "All its leaders in Maharashtra have a greater affinity for Raj."
Yet the BJP stuck with the Shiv Sena because the much newer MNS cannot deliver seats in a general election. At the same time, it can eat into the Shiv Sena's vote base. Moreover, Raj Thackeray launched his party on a strong anti-north Indian plank, chastising migrants from Bihar and Uttar Pradesh for taking away jobs from locals. An outright alliance with Raj Thackeray could therefore be a problem for the BJP in those north Indian states.
But everyone knows that if the BJP asks Raj Thackeray to do it a favour, he will surely want something in return. That would probably be support during the state election due in October. So the BJP will stick with the Shiv Sena for the general election, and depending on the results, decide what to do subsequently.
"Raj Thackeray has no national ambitions right now," said the political commentator. "His focus is squarely on Maharashtra, so there is a chance he will consider the proposal."
MNS legislator Bala Nandgaonkar said party workers were all set to fight the Lok Sabha election but would obviously follow orders from the high command if they were told otherwise. "People say that the Marathi vote will be split if the MNS contests the election, but the Shiv Sena had the field all to itself before the MNS came into being, but it has never been able to win on its own steam. So that's not a correct argument. But the cadres will follow what the high command says."
Even in 1995, when the BJP and Shiv Sena combine came to power in the state, it needed the support of independent legislators, he said.
When asked whether the Shiv Sena was worried about the BJP playing a double game, Narverkar said, "Although it is the BJP's prerogative to do what it wants, our alliance is one of the oldest, and we have no such fears."
But the Shiv Sena's seats in the Lok Sabha have fallen over the past two elections. From 15 in 1999, it is now at 11. The death of Bal Thackeray, its founder, in November 2012, has proven to be a big setback. His son Uddhav Thackeray, say critics, has not been able to keep up the momentum and has alienated some senior leaders.
Given this, the BJP perhaps believes that it must hedge its bets.
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Raj Thackeray has not yet said whether he will accede to this request, but the meeting piqued Uddhav Thackeray, Raj Thackeray's cousin and the head of the Shiv Sena, with whom the BJP already has an alliance and seat-sharing arrangement for the 48 Lok Sabha constituencies in Maharashtra. Ramdas Athavale's Republican Party of India is also part of the alliance.
In the Shiv Sena-run newspaper, Saamna, Uddhav said that there were communication problems within the BJP, while Sanjay Raut, a party MP, said Gadkari's meeting with Raj threatened the alliance. The MNS broke away from the Shiv Sena in 2006, and the two nativist parties compete for a similar base of Marathi-speaking voters.
"What the BJP did is not in the interest of the alliance," said Rahul Narvekar, a spokesman for the Shiv Sena. "Before you talk to an entity beyond the alliance you must consult all your partners." As for the possibility of the MNS joining the alliance, Raut, who is also executive editor of Saamna, said there was no question of that. "Enough is enough," he said.
Why is the BJP playing this game? After all, earlier this year, it decisively chose the Shiv Sena over Raj, after keeping things open for months. It is well known that Raj Thackeray has a good personal rapport with Narendra Modi, the BJP's prime ministerial candidate, in contrast with Uddhav, whose relations with Gujarat's chief minister have been distinctly frosty.
Observers say that this is an indication that the BJP, which believes it has a fighting chance to form the next government in Delhi, wants to maximise its chances in every Lok Sabha constituency. As a result, it is playing a delicate and possibly dangerous game of carrying both Thackerays along.
"The BJP's alliance with Shiv Sena is not out of love and affection, but obligation," said a commentator who did not wish to be named. "All its leaders in Maharashtra have a greater affinity for Raj."
Yet the BJP stuck with the Shiv Sena because the much newer MNS cannot deliver seats in a general election. At the same time, it can eat into the Shiv Sena's vote base. Moreover, Raj Thackeray launched his party on a strong anti-north Indian plank, chastising migrants from Bihar and Uttar Pradesh for taking away jobs from locals. An outright alliance with Raj Thackeray could therefore be a problem for the BJP in those north Indian states.
But everyone knows that if the BJP asks Raj Thackeray to do it a favour, he will surely want something in return. That would probably be support during the state election due in October. So the BJP will stick with the Shiv Sena for the general election, and depending on the results, decide what to do subsequently.
"Raj Thackeray has no national ambitions right now," said the political commentator. "His focus is squarely on Maharashtra, so there is a chance he will consider the proposal."
MNS legislator Bala Nandgaonkar said party workers were all set to fight the Lok Sabha election but would obviously follow orders from the high command if they were told otherwise. "People say that the Marathi vote will be split if the MNS contests the election, but the Shiv Sena had the field all to itself before the MNS came into being, but it has never been able to win on its own steam. So that's not a correct argument. But the cadres will follow what the high command says."
Even in 1995, when the BJP and Shiv Sena combine came to power in the state, it needed the support of independent legislators, he said.
When asked whether the Shiv Sena was worried about the BJP playing a double game, Narverkar said, "Although it is the BJP's prerogative to do what it wants, our alliance is one of the oldest, and we have no such fears."
But the Shiv Sena's seats in the Lok Sabha have fallen over the past two elections. From 15 in 1999, it is now at 11. The death of Bal Thackeray, its founder, in November 2012, has proven to be a big setback. His son Uddhav Thackeray, say critics, has not been able to keep up the momentum and has alienated some senior leaders.
Given this, the BJP perhaps believes that it must hedge its bets.
