Since 1985, the party that has won the greatest share of Karnataka's 28 Lok Sabha seats has sat in the opposition in Delhi. Even in the 1977 general elections held just after Emergency, when Indians kicked Indira Gandhi out, Karnataka had voted overwhelmingly in favour of the Congress.
It may be dangerous to make a prediction based on this historical fact but the Congress does fancy its chances in Karnataka in these elections. Congress leaders openly admit that among states where they are in direct contest with the Bharatiya Janata Party, it is Karnataka where they see their best chances. Perhaps that's why Nandan Nilekani has decided to make his political debut for the Congress from there, even in a tough election.
The founder of Infosys and chairman of the Unique Identification Authority of India will contest as a Congress candidate for the Bangalore South seat. Having been directly chosen by the Congress leadership to head the UID programme, Nilekani does not have the experience of grassroots politics. As someone who formally joined the Congress only on Sunday 9 March, he hasn't yet been part of the Congress' internal politics in Karnataka. Put simply, he's a fresher.
Nilekani could simply have taken a Rajya Sabha seat. Why is he gambling on a tough election? Nandan himself refused answer that question. But people close to him say he thinks it will help him understand India better. He also believes, in the words of one confidant, that being with one of the big parties is “essential to do work that matters and does not believe in the AAP route for change”.
Nilekani has a tough adversary in BJP member HN Ananth Kumar, who has won five elections since 1996. He has been Bangalore South's representative in the Lok Sabha for two terms. Even strong local Congress leaders like state minister Krishna Byre Gowda failed to unseat him. Compounding the challenge for Nilekani, BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi himself has visited Bangalore frequently and is said to have a strong appeal in Bangalore South.
Yet, it is not going to be smooth sailing for Ananth Kumar. Observers predict that this will be a close battle. “Nandan’s campaign is focused on his persona and that could negate a Modi effect in an urban pocket like Bangalore South,” said psephologist Sandeep Shastri.
One disadvantage for Ananth Kumar is anti-incumbency at the local level, though that may not be strong enough to unseat him.
Nilekani is seen as a high profile local, yet global, corporate face backed by a major political party and yet not consumed by it. “When you think Nandan you do not think politician: you see a clean and successful Bangalorean backed by a party," said Prashanth Rao, a resident of Bangalore South and director of a think tank called Catalytic. "With Nandan people associate the same sentiment they associate with the Aam Aadmi Party or Lok Satta, not the one they attach for Congress."
The contest also highlights the need for big parties to have strong local faces. The BJP needs Ananth Kumar despite Narendra Modi, and the Congress needs Nandan Nilekani despite the Gandhi family.
Nandan Nilekani's unique identity will have to deal with the identity issues of the region. “You have to extend the southern regional party feeling to Karnataka and Kerala," said Shastri. "National parties matter here because of the strong regional faces they have. That is what makes Siddaramaiah [of the Congress] or Yeddurappa [of the BJP] important.”
Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah of the Congress rose from the ranks of a fiercely anti-Congress Janata movement. He served with Janata Party stalwarts like the late Ramakrishna Hegde and shifted to his present party only in 2005. He walked out of former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda’s Janata Dal (Secular) after Gowda chose his son H.D. Kumaraswamy as the leader.
Siddaramiah belongs to the Kuruba backward community, listed as one of the Other Backward Classes in Karnataka. Under his leadership, the Congress forged an alliance of OBCs, Dalits and Muslims to defeat the corruption-struck BJP in the 2013 assembly elections. That he was chosen as chief minister was a departure from the Congress Party's usual practice of rewarding those long-term loyalists over newcomers.
It is believed that he was given the chief minister’s post along with the responsibility of delivering at least 20 of the 28 seats from Karnataka in the Lok Sabha election. Can he measure up to the task?
To combat a regional figure of a national party like Siddaramiah, Modi ensured the return of former chief minister B.S. Yeddyurappa to the BJP. Yeddyurappa grew from the ranks of the RSS. He led the BJP to its first victory in a southern state in 2008 but had to step down as chief minister after serious corruption charges. The belligerent satrap rebelled and walked out, splitting the BJP. Yeddyurappa belongs to the Lingayat sect, which accounts for 15% of Karnataka's voters. Yeddyurappa had consolidated the Lingayat vote for the BJP; his departure split that vote, resulting in a defeat against the Congress in the 2013 assembly polls.
The political future of Siddaramiah and Yeddyurappa will depends on the election results this May. Siddaramiah hopes his caste alliance, similar to the one forged by former chief minister Devraj Urs in 1977, will help the Congress avoid the image of a party whose national image is on a decline. Yeddyurappa hopes he can prove that his presence in the BJP is the only way the party can win in Karnataka.
Yeddyurappa versus Siddaramiah will be the battle for the masses. However, for the classes in Bangalore, the most interesting battle of this election is Nandan Nilekani versus Ananth Kumar.
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It may be dangerous to make a prediction based on this historical fact but the Congress does fancy its chances in Karnataka in these elections. Congress leaders openly admit that among states where they are in direct contest with the Bharatiya Janata Party, it is Karnataka where they see their best chances. Perhaps that's why Nandan Nilekani has decided to make his political debut for the Congress from there, even in a tough election.
The founder of Infosys and chairman of the Unique Identification Authority of India will contest as a Congress candidate for the Bangalore South seat. Having been directly chosen by the Congress leadership to head the UID programme, Nilekani does not have the experience of grassroots politics. As someone who formally joined the Congress only on Sunday 9 March, he hasn't yet been part of the Congress' internal politics in Karnataka. Put simply, he's a fresher.
Nilekani could simply have taken a Rajya Sabha seat. Why is he gambling on a tough election? Nandan himself refused answer that question. But people close to him say he thinks it will help him understand India better. He also believes, in the words of one confidant, that being with one of the big parties is “essential to do work that matters and does not believe in the AAP route for change”.
Nilekani has a tough adversary in BJP member HN Ananth Kumar, who has won five elections since 1996. He has been Bangalore South's representative in the Lok Sabha for two terms. Even strong local Congress leaders like state minister Krishna Byre Gowda failed to unseat him. Compounding the challenge for Nilekani, BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi himself has visited Bangalore frequently and is said to have a strong appeal in Bangalore South.
Yet, it is not going to be smooth sailing for Ananth Kumar. Observers predict that this will be a close battle. “Nandan’s campaign is focused on his persona and that could negate a Modi effect in an urban pocket like Bangalore South,” said psephologist Sandeep Shastri.
One disadvantage for Ananth Kumar is anti-incumbency at the local level, though that may not be strong enough to unseat him.
Nilekani is seen as a high profile local, yet global, corporate face backed by a major political party and yet not consumed by it. “When you think Nandan you do not think politician: you see a clean and successful Bangalorean backed by a party," said Prashanth Rao, a resident of Bangalore South and director of a think tank called Catalytic. "With Nandan people associate the same sentiment they associate with the Aam Aadmi Party or Lok Satta, not the one they attach for Congress."
The contest also highlights the need for big parties to have strong local faces. The BJP needs Ananth Kumar despite Narendra Modi, and the Congress needs Nandan Nilekani despite the Gandhi family.
Nandan Nilekani's unique identity will have to deal with the identity issues of the region. “You have to extend the southern regional party feeling to Karnataka and Kerala," said Shastri. "National parties matter here because of the strong regional faces they have. That is what makes Siddaramaiah [of the Congress] or Yeddurappa [of the BJP] important.”
Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah of the Congress rose from the ranks of a fiercely anti-Congress Janata movement. He served with Janata Party stalwarts like the late Ramakrishna Hegde and shifted to his present party only in 2005. He walked out of former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda’s Janata Dal (Secular) after Gowda chose his son H.D. Kumaraswamy as the leader.
Siddaramiah belongs to the Kuruba backward community, listed as one of the Other Backward Classes in Karnataka. Under his leadership, the Congress forged an alliance of OBCs, Dalits and Muslims to defeat the corruption-struck BJP in the 2013 assembly elections. That he was chosen as chief minister was a departure from the Congress Party's usual practice of rewarding those long-term loyalists over newcomers.
It is believed that he was given the chief minister’s post along with the responsibility of delivering at least 20 of the 28 seats from Karnataka in the Lok Sabha election. Can he measure up to the task?
To combat a regional figure of a national party like Siddaramiah, Modi ensured the return of former chief minister B.S. Yeddyurappa to the BJP. Yeddyurappa grew from the ranks of the RSS. He led the BJP to its first victory in a southern state in 2008 but had to step down as chief minister after serious corruption charges. The belligerent satrap rebelled and walked out, splitting the BJP. Yeddyurappa belongs to the Lingayat sect, which accounts for 15% of Karnataka's voters. Yeddyurappa had consolidated the Lingayat vote for the BJP; his departure split that vote, resulting in a defeat against the Congress in the 2013 assembly polls.
The political future of Siddaramiah and Yeddyurappa will depends on the election results this May. Siddaramiah hopes his caste alliance, similar to the one forged by former chief minister Devraj Urs in 1977, will help the Congress avoid the image of a party whose national image is on a decline. Yeddyurappa hopes he can prove that his presence in the BJP is the only way the party can win in Karnataka.
Yeddyurappa versus Siddaramiah will be the battle for the masses. However, for the classes in Bangalore, the most interesting battle of this election is Nandan Nilekani versus Ananth Kumar.
