The first few weeks of Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa’s campaign for the 2014 elections was marked by a conspicuous absence of criticism of Narendra Modi or the Bharatiya Janata Party. Her attacks were focused on her arch rival in the state, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, and the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance at the Centre. Though the BJP had forged an alliance in Tamil Nadu with smaller parties, including actor-turned-politician Vijayakanth’s Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam, this did not seem to bother the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam general secretary.
But in the last two weeks, her rhetoric has seen a change. Suddenly, there is a strong dose of disapproval of Modi and the BJP in her speeches. Speaking in the Cauvery river delta district of Karur on April 14, Jayalalithaa accused the BJP and the Congress of siding with the state of Karnataka in its refusal to release water to Tamil Nadu’s farmers. Soon after, at a meeting in minority-dominated Vellore constituency, she questioned Modi’s politics and the so-called Gujarat model. “Tamil Nadu has seen far better governance than Gujarat,” she declared.
Jayalalithaa’s change of tone, said a member of her party, is a reaction to the BJP’s vigorous activity in the state. “She did not expect Modi to campaign aggressively in Tamil Nadu and since he started doing so, she has decided to take him on,” said an AIADMK leader on condition of anonymity. Party leaders suggest the Tamil Nadu chief minister was irked by Modi’s meeting with Tamil superstar Rajnikanth and his statements that the DMK and the AIADMK are only focused on vendetta politics.
For their part, BJP leaders claim that Jayalalithaa’s criticism demonstrates that their alliance is emerging as a significant force in the state.
However, it may not be quite so cut-and-dried. There seems to be a much deeper calculation in Jayalalithaa’s strategy.
Over the last five years, Modi and Jayalalithaa have shared a good personal rapport. She attended his swearing-in ceremony as chief minister of Gujarat in 2013 and Modi has made several courtesy calls on her in Chennai. Given this history, many political observers believed that a pre-poll alliance between the two parties was likely. But that did not happen.
The main reason for this is believed to be Jayalalithaa’s reluctance to part with too many seats to a pre-poll ally. The BJP is a marginal player in the state and would gain more by such an alliance than the AIADMK. Jayalalithaa was keen to have her party contest most of the seats to ensure that she has sufficient numbers to leverage her position after the election. Besides, she has projected herself as a prime ministerial candidate and did not want her image diluted by sharing a stage with Modi.
Jayalalithaa is said to believe that there are other disadvantages in entering an alliance with the BJP. Such a move could have led to the formation of a strong secular front against her in the state, something that has proved damaging in the past. “She also felt that it would alienate the minority vote and that could be a huge disadvantage in the state,” said a senior journalist who mediated between the two sides and requested anonymity.
Though the BJP went ahead and formed a third front, Modi and Jayalalithaa did not make any critical statements about each other. In fact, many voters believe that Jayalalithaa will end up supporting a BJP-led formation once the elections are over. With her strong statements against Modi, she seems to be sending out a message that she cannot be taken for granted.
Jayalalithaa may also be making another calculation. She is still facing corruption cases that were filed against her after her first stint as chief minister between 1991 and 1996. Observers believe that she will need support from the central government to navigate these cases and so will support whichever party leads the ruling alliance.
To be sure, Jayalalithaa does not have the reputation of being the most steady ally. In 1999, the first National Democratic Alliance government fell when Jayalalithaa shifted sides to the Congress after merely 13 days. Even in these elections, she walked out of a pre-poll alliance with the Left after initially agreeing to it. Many observers point to these instances as proof that she may not be a dependable post-poll ally.
However, AIADMK leaders say that she is keen to play a major role in Delhi and has been waiting for her chance. Since 1999, her rival, DMK President M Karunanidhi, has been part of the ruling coalition in Delhi, first as part of the NDA and later with the UPA. While the AIADMK chief wants to change that, ”her statements taking on Modi show that she is keeping all options open and will most certainly drive a very hard bargain if she has the numbers”, said a leader of her party.
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But in the last two weeks, her rhetoric has seen a change. Suddenly, there is a strong dose of disapproval of Modi and the BJP in her speeches. Speaking in the Cauvery river delta district of Karur on April 14, Jayalalithaa accused the BJP and the Congress of siding with the state of Karnataka in its refusal to release water to Tamil Nadu’s farmers. Soon after, at a meeting in minority-dominated Vellore constituency, she questioned Modi’s politics and the so-called Gujarat model. “Tamil Nadu has seen far better governance than Gujarat,” she declared.
Jayalalithaa’s change of tone, said a member of her party, is a reaction to the BJP’s vigorous activity in the state. “She did not expect Modi to campaign aggressively in Tamil Nadu and since he started doing so, she has decided to take him on,” said an AIADMK leader on condition of anonymity. Party leaders suggest the Tamil Nadu chief minister was irked by Modi’s meeting with Tamil superstar Rajnikanth and his statements that the DMK and the AIADMK are only focused on vendetta politics.
For their part, BJP leaders claim that Jayalalithaa’s criticism demonstrates that their alliance is emerging as a significant force in the state.
However, it may not be quite so cut-and-dried. There seems to be a much deeper calculation in Jayalalithaa’s strategy.
Over the last five years, Modi and Jayalalithaa have shared a good personal rapport. She attended his swearing-in ceremony as chief minister of Gujarat in 2013 and Modi has made several courtesy calls on her in Chennai. Given this history, many political observers believed that a pre-poll alliance between the two parties was likely. But that did not happen.
The main reason for this is believed to be Jayalalithaa’s reluctance to part with too many seats to a pre-poll ally. The BJP is a marginal player in the state and would gain more by such an alliance than the AIADMK. Jayalalithaa was keen to have her party contest most of the seats to ensure that she has sufficient numbers to leverage her position after the election. Besides, she has projected herself as a prime ministerial candidate and did not want her image diluted by sharing a stage with Modi.
Jayalalithaa is said to believe that there are other disadvantages in entering an alliance with the BJP. Such a move could have led to the formation of a strong secular front against her in the state, something that has proved damaging in the past. “She also felt that it would alienate the minority vote and that could be a huge disadvantage in the state,” said a senior journalist who mediated between the two sides and requested anonymity.
Though the BJP went ahead and formed a third front, Modi and Jayalalithaa did not make any critical statements about each other. In fact, many voters believe that Jayalalithaa will end up supporting a BJP-led formation once the elections are over. With her strong statements against Modi, she seems to be sending out a message that she cannot be taken for granted.
Jayalalithaa may also be making another calculation. She is still facing corruption cases that were filed against her after her first stint as chief minister between 1991 and 1996. Observers believe that she will need support from the central government to navigate these cases and so will support whichever party leads the ruling alliance.
To be sure, Jayalalithaa does not have the reputation of being the most steady ally. In 1999, the first National Democratic Alliance government fell when Jayalalithaa shifted sides to the Congress after merely 13 days. Even in these elections, she walked out of a pre-poll alliance with the Left after initially agreeing to it. Many observers point to these instances as proof that she may not be a dependable post-poll ally.
However, AIADMK leaders say that she is keen to play a major role in Delhi and has been waiting for her chance. Since 1999, her rival, DMK President M Karunanidhi, has been part of the ruling coalition in Delhi, first as part of the NDA and later with the UPA. While the AIADMK chief wants to change that, ”her statements taking on Modi show that she is keeping all options open and will most certainly drive a very hard bargain if she has the numbers”, said a leader of her party.
