“People in this constituency have been voting for the Congress for years because candidates like Sunil Dutt were good men,” said Vyas. Now, he is tired of the civic chaos that the nearly-complete Mumbai Metro has caused in Andheri, and wants change. “Everyone’s talking about a Modi sarkar," said Vyas. "He’s on Whatsapp, the media, everywhere. Of course I will vote for him.”
Vyas is not the only one. The Bharatiya Janata Party’s blitzkrieg publicity campaign to sell Narendra Modi as the next prime minister has evidently found an appeal in Mumbai, which has been a Congress stronghold for the past ten years.
In 2004, five of Mumbai’s six Lok Sabha constituencies voted for the Congress (Mumbai South Central elected a Shiv Sena MP that year). In 2009, partly because of the newly-formed Maharashtra Navnirman Sena eating into Shiv Sena-BJP votes, all six seats went to the Congress and its ally, the Nationalist Congress Party.
But the 2014 election could possibly bring on the “Modi wave” for which the BJP is hoping. In almost every constituency of the city, voters claim they are tired of the United Progressive Alliance and don’t want it in power anymore; for many of those voters, Brand Modi seems to have filled the void because of its sheer ubiquity.
In the Mumbai North constituency, which includes Gujarati-dominated areas like Malad, Kandivli and Borivli, the brand has a special appeal for Gujaratis, who are perhaps for the first time likely to cast their votes as a separate vote bank.
“It’s not that [sitting Congress MP] Sanjay Nirupam has not done any good work in this area, but I would still vote for BJP,” said 60-year-old NC Mehta, a manager at a cyber café in Kandivli. “Iss baar Modi ka hi naam chal raha hai, so we are going to give him a chance.”
For Mehta and many others like him, the claimed development of Gujarat is a frequent point of reference to justify a Modi government. “Eight years ago, I moved to Mumbai because my village in Gujarat was very poor, but today it has improved dramatically,” he said.
Champakbhai Nandu, a businessman from a housing colony of Gujarati Jains in Malad, says that the community would vote for the “least corrupt” candidate, even though “not a single politician is clean”. So which are the most corrupt parties that will not get his vote? “Well, the Congress is not the only one mired in corruption," he said. "Look at Sharad Pawar from the NCP. Look at what Veerappa Moily [also from the Congress] has done with gas prices. And where is Arvind Kejriwal getting all his money from?” Conspicuously, BJP’s politicians were missing from his litany.
In the North West, it’s a similar story, even though the population is more diverse. Lower-income neighbourhoods with largely Maharashtrian demographics have traditionally voted for saffron parties like Shiv Sena or, more recently, the MNS. The MP’s seat, however, has belonged to the Congress since 1999, first with Sunil Dutt, then his daughter Priya Dutt and, in 2009, Gurudas Kamat. Last month, Versova’s Koli population had almost swung its allegiance to the Congress, when Rahul Gandhi visited the fishing community on his two-day trip.
“We had seen him talking nicely with the poor on TV, so we were hopeful that he would meet us and help us,” said Sarika Tare, a young Koli woman who has taken up a job at a jewellery company to boost her family income. Their biggest concern, she said, was the lack of secure government jobs for unemployed youth.
“But Rahul Gandhi never really met us ordinary people – he only interacted with a few select people and we were not even allowed near the venue,” said Tare. A new government at the Centre, she believes, could change everything.
The North Central constituency, comprising areas from the slums along River Mithi to the affluent residents of Bandra West, has glaring socioeconomic diversity. But there seems to be a uniform apprehension about the return of a Congress government. While political analysts believe that sitting Congress MP Priya Dutt is a strong candidate who is likely to retain her seat, a number of residents plan to vote with a stable central government in mind.
“If we have a prime minister who is pro-development, Mumbai, as the financial capital of India, will benefit the most,” said Tejas Mehta, an architect from Bandra. Mehta believes that the corruption prevalent under the Congress has made it difficult for architects and builders to get basic approvals for their projects. Gujarat, on the other hand, has been much less corrupt under Modi and has seen businesses flourish, says Mehta. “The Congress will not change anything, so why not try the BJP?”
Far away from Mehta’s world, Sultana Shaikh, a resident of a slum in Santacruz, knows she will vote for the Congress only to keep Hindutva elements out. But she has been rapidly losing faith in the Congress party. “My children have not gone to school for a year because I cannot afford the fees in private schools,” said Shaikh. “But every time I have asked our Congress representatives to improve government schools instead, I have been turned away.”
In Mumbai South Central, if Congress candidate Eknath Gaikwad managed a win in 2009, it was only because the MNS usurped half the votes that would have gone to the BJP-Shiv Sena combine. Now, even in Maharashtrian-dominated areas like Dadar and Mahim, residents are vociferously pro-Modi irrespective of their local allegiance to either the MNS or Shiv Sena.
Saroj Shivalkar, a chawl resident from Dadar, blames the Congress for everything from price rises to increasing instances of rape and molestation. “We may not have seen what Modi has done in Gujarat with our own eyes, but we have faith that he can do anything,” said Shivalkar.
At the other end of the constituency, some voters are more cautious. Ravi, a Chembur resident who only gave his first name, has been keeping track of both leading parties for their stance on national policies on education, industry, defence and more. “Today, our Parliament hardly functions, so we do need a stable government,” said Ravi, choosing his words carefully. “But we must not have a government that can create fear in the mind of any community.”
Mumbai South – where Congress’ Milind Deora has been the MP since 2004 and his father, Murli Deora, had held the seat for four times since 1984 – is the only constituency that Congress can expect to retain with confidence this election. This is, in part, due to the goodwill created by the Deoras, as well as the large population of Muslims in the more congested neighbourhoods like Dongri, Bhendi Bazar and Mohammed Ali Road.
“I believe the ideology of the BJP is wrong, so even though Modi is very likely to win, I will not be an instrument in making him the prime minister,” said Hashim Roopawalla, a businessman from Fort. “I have travelled extensively through Gujarat and find that even the development he brought there is along communal lines.”
In Sewri, at the northern edge of the constituency, residents claim they are now leaning towards Modi. “He is a hit on social networks, so everyone wants to vote for Modi sarkar,” said Nikesh Atkare, a 21-year-old commerce graduate looking for a job in a government bank. Atkare supports Modi too, and believes the allegations about Modi’s involvement in the 2002 Gujarat riots are “wrong”. “But at the local level, Shiv Sena, MNS or BJP representatives have never been helpful, and they try to buy votes with money,” he said. “I would rather exercise my right to reject all candidates.”
Meanwhile, the Aam Aadmi Party is clearly a flop show in Mumbai, with most voters dismissing the “Delhi deserters” as a passing phase.
In the North East constituency, where AAP’s candidate Medha Patkar was expected to draw a lot of low-income voters from the slums where she has worked, residents don't seem to be giving her much thought.
“Medha Patkar never really came to our area to campaign, though I’ve heard she has done good work,” said Indu Upadhyay, a social worker from Ghatkopar. For Upadhyay and her neighbours, women’s safety is the biggest concern while voting, and they are convinced a Modi government will be able to ensure more security for women. “Everyone in my colony has together decided to vote for Modi.”
Sunanda Kadam, an anganwadi teacher from Vikhroli, is one of the few voters from the constituency who has strong reasons for not wanting Modi at the centre. Her salary has remained a meagre Rs 4,000 a month for the past six years, but she is proud of her work and would rather have the government take responsibility for better pay than look for a private sector job. “Every politician makes false promises, but Modi intends to privatise jobs,” said Kadam. “Besides, I’ve spoken to many women who have migrated from Gujarat about the ‘development’ there. If it is so developed, why do they come to Mumbai?”