Across most of India, the much-touted "Modi wave" is expected to give the final surge to the Bharatiya Janata Party, adding votes to local candidates to ensure victories even in unlikely seats. In parts of Madhya Pradesh, though, it might have the opposite effect.
If you look at it carefully, the Modi wave is more likely to end up being a "Modi layer". A wave would mean any candidate who professes support to Narendra Modi, no matter their caste or background, should expect a sweeping victory. This would be akin to the Congress’ 404-seat victory in the 1984 elections after Indira Gandhi’s assassination.
In this case, however, the BJP has done its caste and alliance arithmetic as carefully as before, shunting aside candidates who don’t have winnability and focusing on mobilising the right communities. Modi, with his appeals to vote directly for him rather than for the party, is then added as the final push.
So, for example, a Jat candidate in Rajasthan, a state that is known to vote on caste lines, might end up getting most of the votes from his community and other traditional BJP voters. Over and above this, he might also get enough votes from Rajputs and Gujjars who have been won over by the Modi campaign to push the BJP over the edge: the Modi layer. (See how this strategy is playing out in Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Tamil Nadu and Bihar)
But Madhya Pradesh is going to be different. The BJP has been in power here for more than a decade, and chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan is a major leader in his own right. In fact, Chouhan’s appeal is broader than that of the prime ministerial candidate: substantial numbers of Muslims in Madhya Pradesh — between 30% to 35% — voted for the BJP in last year’s assembly elections.
“We all know what Chouhan has done for Muslims here in Madhya Pradesh,” said Mohd Mahir, state president of the Madhya Pradesh Muslim Vikas Parishad. “He is a liberal face, has a soft corner for the community, and his programmes, scholarships and schemes have all been very beneficial for Muslims.”
The same, of course, cannot be said for Modi. In fact, Modi’s projection as prime ministerial candidate — unlike the effect he is having on the BJP in most of the country — will end up losing the party votes here. The Modi layer here will be one without Muslims.
“People know that Chouhan works for everyone here," said Dabir Ahmad, a resident of Bhopal who campaigned for the BJP last year. “They don’t think the same about Modi. There is plenty of anger against Modi. Even those Muslims who have joined the BJP or who support Chouhan, will not vote for the party in the Lok Sabha elections. There is no question of strengthening Chouhan even further, which is what he says in his campaigning. It is very clear that every vote for the BJP is now a vote for Modi.”
This doesn’t mean that those Muslim votes will naturally end up in the kitty of another party. The result might just mean a smaller turnout, with the Modi layer in this case being the missing votes that had gone to the BJP during the assembly elections.
Take the capital city of Bhopal, which is 25% Muslim, according to the 2011 census. Across the seven assembly seats that comprise the Bhopal Lok Sabha seat, turnout was 63.5% on average. During the recently concluded Lok Sabha polls, that number came down to 58%.
The missing votes are not necessarily just Muslims choosing not to vote for the BJP, since voter turnout has been lower in the Lok Sabha elections when compared to the assembly polls across the state, even in seats without significant Muslim populations. But Mahir believes the booth-level numbers will eventually bear this out.
“It’s not only a question of voting tactically, although in the border areas of Madhya Pradesh, you’ll see votes for candidates from the Samajwadi Party or the Bahujan Samaj Party getting boosted,” Mahir said. “But from what we have already heard, I think the booth-level numbers will show that in many places fewer Muslims have gone out to vote this time.”
Having swept the assembly elections, winning 165 of 230 seats, the BJP is unlikely to be too perturbed. All of the opinion polls give the party more than 22 of the 29 Lok Sabha seats, and a drop in Muslim votes might be made up elsewhere with numbers from other communities.
But with Madhya Pradesh being one of the few places where the BJP’s engagement with the Muslim community has grown — more than 100 Muslims represent the party in local bodies across the state — this rejigging of equations could have a significant impact on the BJP’s approach to minorities under a prospective Modi government.
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If you look at it carefully, the Modi wave is more likely to end up being a "Modi layer". A wave would mean any candidate who professes support to Narendra Modi, no matter their caste or background, should expect a sweeping victory. This would be akin to the Congress’ 404-seat victory in the 1984 elections after Indira Gandhi’s assassination.
In this case, however, the BJP has done its caste and alliance arithmetic as carefully as before, shunting aside candidates who don’t have winnability and focusing on mobilising the right communities. Modi, with his appeals to vote directly for him rather than for the party, is then added as the final push.
So, for example, a Jat candidate in Rajasthan, a state that is known to vote on caste lines, might end up getting most of the votes from his community and other traditional BJP voters. Over and above this, he might also get enough votes from Rajputs and Gujjars who have been won over by the Modi campaign to push the BJP over the edge: the Modi layer. (See how this strategy is playing out in Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Tamil Nadu and Bihar)
But Madhya Pradesh is going to be different. The BJP has been in power here for more than a decade, and chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan is a major leader in his own right. In fact, Chouhan’s appeal is broader than that of the prime ministerial candidate: substantial numbers of Muslims in Madhya Pradesh — between 30% to 35% — voted for the BJP in last year’s assembly elections.
“We all know what Chouhan has done for Muslims here in Madhya Pradesh,” said Mohd Mahir, state president of the Madhya Pradesh Muslim Vikas Parishad. “He is a liberal face, has a soft corner for the community, and his programmes, scholarships and schemes have all been very beneficial for Muslims.”
The same, of course, cannot be said for Modi. In fact, Modi’s projection as prime ministerial candidate — unlike the effect he is having on the BJP in most of the country — will end up losing the party votes here. The Modi layer here will be one without Muslims.
“People know that Chouhan works for everyone here," said Dabir Ahmad, a resident of Bhopal who campaigned for the BJP last year. “They don’t think the same about Modi. There is plenty of anger against Modi. Even those Muslims who have joined the BJP or who support Chouhan, will not vote for the party in the Lok Sabha elections. There is no question of strengthening Chouhan even further, which is what he says in his campaigning. It is very clear that every vote for the BJP is now a vote for Modi.”
This doesn’t mean that those Muslim votes will naturally end up in the kitty of another party. The result might just mean a smaller turnout, with the Modi layer in this case being the missing votes that had gone to the BJP during the assembly elections.
Take the capital city of Bhopal, which is 25% Muslim, according to the 2011 census. Across the seven assembly seats that comprise the Bhopal Lok Sabha seat, turnout was 63.5% on average. During the recently concluded Lok Sabha polls, that number came down to 58%.
The missing votes are not necessarily just Muslims choosing not to vote for the BJP, since voter turnout has been lower in the Lok Sabha elections when compared to the assembly polls across the state, even in seats without significant Muslim populations. But Mahir believes the booth-level numbers will eventually bear this out.
“It’s not only a question of voting tactically, although in the border areas of Madhya Pradesh, you’ll see votes for candidates from the Samajwadi Party or the Bahujan Samaj Party getting boosted,” Mahir said. “But from what we have already heard, I think the booth-level numbers will show that in many places fewer Muslims have gone out to vote this time.”
Having swept the assembly elections, winning 165 of 230 seats, the BJP is unlikely to be too perturbed. All of the opinion polls give the party more than 22 of the 29 Lok Sabha seats, and a drop in Muslim votes might be made up elsewhere with numbers from other communities.
But with Madhya Pradesh being one of the few places where the BJP’s engagement with the Muslim community has grown — more than 100 Muslims represent the party in local bodies across the state — this rejigging of equations could have a significant impact on the BJP’s approach to minorities under a prospective Modi government.