It has already hit Bihar, throwing local politics in a churn. It’s sweep through Uttar Pradesh has left most stunned, not least the regional politicians who have become used to somewhat ignoring national parties.
But the aftershocks of the Narendra Modi wave aren’t being felt only in the Hindi heartland. States all over the country are coming to terms with the re-charting of the electoral map – especially since many will face assembly elections in the coming months.
1) Things fall apart: Maharashtra
You know that things are bad when the Congress wins only two seats in the state in which it was founded. But when one of those two winners, tainted former chief minister Ashok Chavan, is at risk of disqualification because he allegedly paid newspapers to print favourable items about him, that’s when you know things are downright ugly.
The Congress-Nationalist Congress Party combine runs the state for now, but things aren’t looking good for them: they’ve been reduced to six Lok Sabha seats in a state that elects 48 representatives. A whopping 42 seats went to the the National Democratic Alliance – the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Shiv Sena and the Swabhiman Paksha – which have together garnered more than 50% vote share. For some time on counting day, there was even concern that NCP supremo Sharad Pawar’s daughter, Supriya Sule, would lose her seat.
And things are about to get worse: assembly elections are due later this year. If Lok Sabha trends hold, the NCP-Congress reign, which has lasted 15 years, is set to end.
2) A break in the road: Haryana
Another Congress-ruled state, another overwhelming NDA victory, another expected rout in upcoming assembly elections. The Congress held nine of the 10 seats in the state after a strong showing in the 2009 elections. They now have just one: Rohtak, where Deepender Singh Hooda, son of the current chief minister, contested. Everywhere else the party was routed, with the BJP picking up seven seats.
The exact implication of the Modi wave for assembly elections, expected later this year, remains unclear because of the third force in the state: the Indian National Lok Dal, which picked up the remaining two Lok Sabha seats. The general elections were seen as just a semi-final for the assembly polls, which the INLD – which was in power before Hooda took over – was hoping to win.
The INLD had initially opened talks with the BJP to join the NDA, but those broke down and they fought each other, even though the INLD was supporting Narendra Modi as prime minister. Now, the BJP, which only has four of 90 seats in the assembly, might have more leverage over local calculations. This means that the Chautala-led INLD’s path to regaining power isn’t so straightforward.
3) Conference call: Jammu & Kashmir
It has become one of those simple ways of demonstrating the BJP’s relative pan-Indian appeal: it picked up the southernmost Lok Sabha seat, Kanyakumari, as well as the northernmost, Ladakh. In fact, in J&K, the saffron party won all three non-Valley seats, with those going to the state opposition People’s Democratic Party.
This leaves the PDP in a strong position for assembly polls expected in January, and suggests this will be yet another state where a United Progressive Alliance government – in this case a coalition between the National Conference and the Congress – is set to be defeated.
The PDP garnered the most votes in 41 of the 87 assembly seats in the state, while the ruling National Conference only came in first place in five assembly seats. With 44 being the necessary number to form the government in the state, the Omar Abdullah-led National Conference appears to be staring down the barrel.
4) No-Confidence Building Moves: Jharkhand
The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha is in charge in the state, but only just barely. The JMM, in an alliance with the Congress, got only four more state legislators than required to stay in power after a no-confidence motion last year. Now, it is down to just two Lok Sabha seats, with the other 12 having been picked up by the BJP.
Chief minister Hemant Soren appears to have the numbers for now, but only just about: calculations put his support at 40 MLAs, the exact number to form the government. There have been indications that the BJP won’t rock the boat just yet, since elections are expected by January. But party leaders have made excited noises about their impressive 40.1% vote share, which suggest that the BJP might have a chance of giving Jharkhand its first properly stable government since it was carved out of Bihar the last time the NDA government was in power.
5) Capital confusion: Delhi
The capital is confused. It’s been through a lot in recent times. Fifteen years of Congress rule. Then 49 days being run by the Aam Aadmi Party, the most successful new party since NT Rama Rao’s Telugu Desam Party in the 1980s. And yet, after AAP’s abrupt resignation from government, all seven of the capital’s seats have gone straight from the Congress to the BJP, albeit with AAP runner-up in every one of them.
With the assembly currently suspended by the Lt Governor, it looks like the most likely option is for Delhi to go to the polls later this year – although there have been suggestions that either the BJP, which has the most MLAs, or AAP might try to cobble something together again. If elections were held today, they’d be expected to return the same verdict as in the Lok Sabha polls, giving the BJP charge of the capital after a decade and a half.
6) It's all downhill: Uttarakhand
Soon after counting began, Uttarakhand chief minister Harish Rawat began doling out positions to even more leaders in his state Congress unit. He nominated seven to parliamentary secretary roles, and then after results, gave 10 others important designations. The reason? Rawat’s government is four short of a majority, relying on independents to make up the numbers in the state assembly, and the BJP has already been getting in touch with the Congress MLAs to see if they might jump ship.
The BJP ended up getting more votes in 63 of the 70 assembly seats in the state, and swept all five Lok Sabha seats, earning a whopping 55.3 per cent vote share in the process. The state has a few years before it goes to the polls, but if the Congress hopes to retain its government it will have to ensure that there are no defections under a Modi sarkar.
Source for graphs: Election Commission of India
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But the aftershocks of the Narendra Modi wave aren’t being felt only in the Hindi heartland. States all over the country are coming to terms with the re-charting of the electoral map – especially since many will face assembly elections in the coming months.
1) Things fall apart: Maharashtra
You know that things are bad when the Congress wins only two seats in the state in which it was founded. But when one of those two winners, tainted former chief minister Ashok Chavan, is at risk of disqualification because he allegedly paid newspapers to print favourable items about him, that’s when you know things are downright ugly.
The Congress-Nationalist Congress Party combine runs the state for now, but things aren’t looking good for them: they’ve been reduced to six Lok Sabha seats in a state that elects 48 representatives. A whopping 42 seats went to the the National Democratic Alliance – the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Shiv Sena and the Swabhiman Paksha – which have together garnered more than 50% vote share. For some time on counting day, there was even concern that NCP supremo Sharad Pawar’s daughter, Supriya Sule, would lose her seat.
And things are about to get worse: assembly elections are due later this year. If Lok Sabha trends hold, the NCP-Congress reign, which has lasted 15 years, is set to end.
2) A break in the road: Haryana
Another Congress-ruled state, another overwhelming NDA victory, another expected rout in upcoming assembly elections. The Congress held nine of the 10 seats in the state after a strong showing in the 2009 elections. They now have just one: Rohtak, where Deepender Singh Hooda, son of the current chief minister, contested. Everywhere else the party was routed, with the BJP picking up seven seats.
The exact implication of the Modi wave for assembly elections, expected later this year, remains unclear because of the third force in the state: the Indian National Lok Dal, which picked up the remaining two Lok Sabha seats. The general elections were seen as just a semi-final for the assembly polls, which the INLD – which was in power before Hooda took over – was hoping to win.
The INLD had initially opened talks with the BJP to join the NDA, but those broke down and they fought each other, even though the INLD was supporting Narendra Modi as prime minister. Now, the BJP, which only has four of 90 seats in the assembly, might have more leverage over local calculations. This means that the Chautala-led INLD’s path to regaining power isn’t so straightforward.
3) Conference call: Jammu & Kashmir
It has become one of those simple ways of demonstrating the BJP’s relative pan-Indian appeal: it picked up the southernmost Lok Sabha seat, Kanyakumari, as well as the northernmost, Ladakh. In fact, in J&K, the saffron party won all three non-Valley seats, with those going to the state opposition People’s Democratic Party.
This leaves the PDP in a strong position for assembly polls expected in January, and suggests this will be yet another state where a United Progressive Alliance government – in this case a coalition between the National Conference and the Congress – is set to be defeated.
The PDP garnered the most votes in 41 of the 87 assembly seats in the state, while the ruling National Conference only came in first place in five assembly seats. With 44 being the necessary number to form the government in the state, the Omar Abdullah-led National Conference appears to be staring down the barrel.
4) No-Confidence Building Moves: Jharkhand
The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha is in charge in the state, but only just barely. The JMM, in an alliance with the Congress, got only four more state legislators than required to stay in power after a no-confidence motion last year. Now, it is down to just two Lok Sabha seats, with the other 12 having been picked up by the BJP.
Chief minister Hemant Soren appears to have the numbers for now, but only just about: calculations put his support at 40 MLAs, the exact number to form the government. There have been indications that the BJP won’t rock the boat just yet, since elections are expected by January. But party leaders have made excited noises about their impressive 40.1% vote share, which suggest that the BJP might have a chance of giving Jharkhand its first properly stable government since it was carved out of Bihar the last time the NDA government was in power.
5) Capital confusion: Delhi
The capital is confused. It’s been through a lot in recent times. Fifteen years of Congress rule. Then 49 days being run by the Aam Aadmi Party, the most successful new party since NT Rama Rao’s Telugu Desam Party in the 1980s. And yet, after AAP’s abrupt resignation from government, all seven of the capital’s seats have gone straight from the Congress to the BJP, albeit with AAP runner-up in every one of them.
With the assembly currently suspended by the Lt Governor, it looks like the most likely option is for Delhi to go to the polls later this year – although there have been suggestions that either the BJP, which has the most MLAs, or AAP might try to cobble something together again. If elections were held today, they’d be expected to return the same verdict as in the Lok Sabha polls, giving the BJP charge of the capital after a decade and a half.
6) It's all downhill: Uttarakhand
Soon after counting began, Uttarakhand chief minister Harish Rawat began doling out positions to even more leaders in his state Congress unit. He nominated seven to parliamentary secretary roles, and then after results, gave 10 others important designations. The reason? Rawat’s government is four short of a majority, relying on independents to make up the numbers in the state assembly, and the BJP has already been getting in touch with the Congress MLAs to see if they might jump ship.
The BJP ended up getting more votes in 63 of the 70 assembly seats in the state, and swept all five Lok Sabha seats, earning a whopping 55.3 per cent vote share in the process. The state has a few years before it goes to the polls, but if the Congress hopes to retain its government it will have to ensure that there are no defections under a Modi sarkar.
Source for graphs: Election Commission of India
