It’s rather odd for a union finance minister to be tabling a local budget in Parliament, but that’s what Arun Jaitley had to do on Friday – a reminder, if it were needed, that Delhi has been running without a government for months now.
Ever since Aam Aadmi Party leader Arvind Kejriwal stepped down from the chief minister’s chair in February, Delhi’s legislative assembly has been in suspended animation and president’s rule has been in place. That may soon come to an end.
The Bharatiya Janata Party, the single-largest party in the assembly, does not have the numbers to form a government by itself. It now faces a simple choice: push for elections or lure rival legislators to its side. Despite public statements to the contrary from the party’s new state president, Satish Upadhyay, backroom machinations are reportedly on, with the party hoping to pursue the latter option.
Many forget that the saffron party actually had the most legislators and the highest vote share after the assembly election last December. AAP capitalised on the BJP's decision not to form a government by forming a short-lived administration of its own.
The Lok Sabha election was even more encouraging: the BJP managed to win all seven seats in the capital with handy margins and an overall vote share of 46%, delivering a body blow to its only real opposition, the AAP. The Congress candidates, including stalwarts like Kapil Sibal and Ajay Maken, were a distant third in every seat.
Election fatigue
Yet, the Delhi BJP did not want to push for fresh polls right away. “There has been clamour amongst the political parties of Delhi – and this runs across party lines – that we shouldn’t be forced to have another round of elections,” said Devesh Kumar, a journalist who has covered the BJP for more than a decade. “A number of BJP MLAs have also told the new Delhi BJP president that they would not like to face elections.”
This is being sold as a way of alleviating the burden on the taxpayer: if held, this would be the third election in the past 12 months in the capital. But there are other considerations too. The local units of every party, having just fought two extremely competitive elections, aren’t prepared financially to run yet another campaign.
The BJP is also worried that the voter now sees it as the ruling party, and its legislators would be held accountable for the perennial power cuts, water deficiency and, cost of vegetables and basic amenities.
Jumping ship
The other option for the saffron party is to form the government by drawing in MLAs from other parties. Congress MLAs are particularly vulnerable, due to a sense of drift within their party after the general elections: they have no local impetus and the central leadership seems stuck in introspection mode.
“The Congress MLAs are sitting ducks,” said Kay Benedict, a political analyst. “They are highly demoralised and don’t see any future within the party. It was generally expected that either AAP or BJP would try to do this to form a government. But it was because of the confusion within the BJP that it hasn’t happened yet.”
Reports suggest there is plenty of money floating around hoping to lure six of the eight Congress MLAs. Kejriwal has made official statements saying the BJP had tried to lure his party’s MLAs and have now trained its sights on Congress legislators.
Yet the party – and the RSS – also has concerns that attempts to lure rival legislators will reflect badly on them. A cobbled-together government would also be prone to instability. “It’s obviously a difficult choice for the BJP,” Kumar said.
Akali aid
Sources suggest they have two possible ways of getting around this roadblock. Some Congress legislators are unwilling to shift sides because joining the BJP will lose them minority votes. The BJP has allegedly already mooted the option of these MLAs joining BJP ally Shiromani Akali Dal instead of its own party.
The other trump card, quite simply, is Narendra Modi. “You have to understand, it’s been a long time since the state and the Centre were both ruled by the BJP. The party will know that it will get funds from the Centre, and that it will have four years. If the economy starts to look up, it can always claim it did a lot,” Kumar said. “My feeling is that the BJP will be at the helm of a new government.”
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Ever since Aam Aadmi Party leader Arvind Kejriwal stepped down from the chief minister’s chair in February, Delhi’s legislative assembly has been in suspended animation and president’s rule has been in place. That may soon come to an end.
The Bharatiya Janata Party, the single-largest party in the assembly, does not have the numbers to form a government by itself. It now faces a simple choice: push for elections or lure rival legislators to its side. Despite public statements to the contrary from the party’s new state president, Satish Upadhyay, backroom machinations are reportedly on, with the party hoping to pursue the latter option.
Many forget that the saffron party actually had the most legislators and the highest vote share after the assembly election last December. AAP capitalised on the BJP's decision not to form a government by forming a short-lived administration of its own.
The Lok Sabha election was even more encouraging: the BJP managed to win all seven seats in the capital with handy margins and an overall vote share of 46%, delivering a body blow to its only real opposition, the AAP. The Congress candidates, including stalwarts like Kapil Sibal and Ajay Maken, were a distant third in every seat.
Election fatigue
Yet, the Delhi BJP did not want to push for fresh polls right away. “There has been clamour amongst the political parties of Delhi – and this runs across party lines – that we shouldn’t be forced to have another round of elections,” said Devesh Kumar, a journalist who has covered the BJP for more than a decade. “A number of BJP MLAs have also told the new Delhi BJP president that they would not like to face elections.”
This is being sold as a way of alleviating the burden on the taxpayer: if held, this would be the third election in the past 12 months in the capital. But there are other considerations too. The local units of every party, having just fought two extremely competitive elections, aren’t prepared financially to run yet another campaign.
The BJP is also worried that the voter now sees it as the ruling party, and its legislators would be held accountable for the perennial power cuts, water deficiency and, cost of vegetables and basic amenities.
Jumping ship
The other option for the saffron party is to form the government by drawing in MLAs from other parties. Congress MLAs are particularly vulnerable, due to a sense of drift within their party after the general elections: they have no local impetus and the central leadership seems stuck in introspection mode.
“The Congress MLAs are sitting ducks,” said Kay Benedict, a political analyst. “They are highly demoralised and don’t see any future within the party. It was generally expected that either AAP or BJP would try to do this to form a government. But it was because of the confusion within the BJP that it hasn’t happened yet.”
Reports suggest there is plenty of money floating around hoping to lure six of the eight Congress MLAs. Kejriwal has made official statements saying the BJP had tried to lure his party’s MLAs and have now trained its sights on Congress legislators.
Yet the party – and the RSS – also has concerns that attempts to lure rival legislators will reflect badly on them. A cobbled-together government would also be prone to instability. “It’s obviously a difficult choice for the BJP,” Kumar said.
Akali aid
Sources suggest they have two possible ways of getting around this roadblock. Some Congress legislators are unwilling to shift sides because joining the BJP will lose them minority votes. The BJP has allegedly already mooted the option of these MLAs joining BJP ally Shiromani Akali Dal instead of its own party.
The other trump card, quite simply, is Narendra Modi. “You have to understand, it’s been a long time since the state and the Centre were both ruled by the BJP. The party will know that it will get funds from the Centre, and that it will have four years. If the economy starts to look up, it can always claim it did a lot,” Kumar said. “My feeling is that the BJP will be at the helm of a new government.”
