Voting has just ended in both Maharashtra and Haryana and one things stands out from most of the exit polls that have been released so far: the Bharatiya Janata Party hasn’t crossed the halfway mark in Maharashtra.
The massive victories in this year’s general elections had prompted the BJP, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, to go into polls in both states nearly alone. In Maharashtra, this meant ending a 25-year-old alliance with the Shiv Sena and instead allying with a clutch of smaller parties that it had worked with before. In Haryana, the BJP decided to cut ties with the party that it had allied with during the Lok Sabha elections, the Haryana Janhit Congress, while also staying away from another former alliance partner, the Indian National Lok Dal.
Both decisions were based on what seemed like the continued popularity of Prime Minister Modi, whose face anchored the campaigns in both the states, towering over the leaders from those states. The idea was that the BJP would leverage Modi’s immense popularity while also expanding into territories where it previously had to depend on allies.
Instead, the splintering alliances seem to have fragmented the electorate somewhat. None of the exit polls that are out so far, the ABP-Nielsen Poll, the NewsX-AxisAPM poll or the TimesNow-CVoter poll, has suggested that the BJP will cross the halfway mark in either state. Only Today'sChanakya-News24's poll predicts 151 seats for the BJP in Maharashtra, with a 9 seat margin of error on either side.
Both the ABP and TImesNow polls make it seem like the BJP will come close in Maharashtra: they have projected, respectively, 127 and 129 seats for the BJP in the 288-strong house, with 145 being the halfway mark. NewsX is a lot less bullish on the BJP’s chances, giving it just 103 seats in Maharashtra, and giving a much bigger share of the pie to its erstwhile ally, the Shiv Sena. The poll predicts the Sena will win 89 seats, as compared to TimesNow’s 56-seat prediction and ABP’s 77-seat projection. Today's Chanakya, which came in a little later,
In Haryana, meanwhile, the TimesNow poll is expecting just 37 seats for the BJP in a 90-strong house. The BJP’s erstwhile ally, the INLD, should expect to get 26 seats according to this poll, while the incumbent Congress has been projected to get 15. Today's Chanakya, however, is more optimistic about the BJP's changes in the northern state. It's predictions see the saffron party gaining a simple majority, with 52 seats, while the INLD gets just 23 and the Congress is down to 10.
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The massive victories in this year’s general elections had prompted the BJP, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, to go into polls in both states nearly alone. In Maharashtra, this meant ending a 25-year-old alliance with the Shiv Sena and instead allying with a clutch of smaller parties that it had worked with before. In Haryana, the BJP decided to cut ties with the party that it had allied with during the Lok Sabha elections, the Haryana Janhit Congress, while also staying away from another former alliance partner, the Indian National Lok Dal.
Both decisions were based on what seemed like the continued popularity of Prime Minister Modi, whose face anchored the campaigns in both the states, towering over the leaders from those states. The idea was that the BJP would leverage Modi’s immense popularity while also expanding into territories where it previously had to depend on allies.
Instead, the splintering alliances seem to have fragmented the electorate somewhat. None of the exit polls that are out so far, the ABP-Nielsen Poll, the NewsX-AxisAPM poll or the TimesNow-CVoter poll, has suggested that the BJP will cross the halfway mark in either state. Only Today'sChanakya-News24's poll predicts 151 seats for the BJP in Maharashtra, with a 9 seat margin of error on either side.
Both the ABP and TImesNow polls make it seem like the BJP will come close in Maharashtra: they have projected, respectively, 127 and 129 seats for the BJP in the 288-strong house, with 145 being the halfway mark. NewsX is a lot less bullish on the BJP’s chances, giving it just 103 seats in Maharashtra, and giving a much bigger share of the pie to its erstwhile ally, the Shiv Sena. The poll predicts the Sena will win 89 seats, as compared to TimesNow’s 56-seat prediction and ABP’s 77-seat projection. Today's Chanakya, which came in a little later,
In Haryana, meanwhile, the TimesNow poll is expecting just 37 seats for the BJP in a 90-strong house. The BJP’s erstwhile ally, the INLD, should expect to get 26 seats according to this poll, while the incumbent Congress has been projected to get 15. Today's Chanakya, however, is more optimistic about the BJP's changes in the northern state. It's predictions see the saffron party gaining a simple majority, with 52 seats, while the INLD gets just 23 and the Congress is down to 10.