It is yet to be seen whether the Bharatiya Janata Party joins the government in Jammu and Kashmir or remains in the opposition, but its emergence as the second-largest party in the legislature after the Peoples Democratic Party will certainly have significant implications. As a party that has always projected itself as a protector of the interests of Jammu region, its role in the sharpening the politics of regional assertion will have to be watched.
This has been an unprecedented performance by the BJP, which has finally emerged as a powerful political force in the state. It has been making its presence felt since its origins in the Bharatiya Jana Sangh in the 1960s and even before that when it worked through Praja Parishad. But till the onset of militancy in the 1980s, the party’s visibility was limited to protest politics.
Every year, when the state government moved to the winter capital of Jammu, the BJP followed a ritual of calling for a Jammu bandh and sitting on dharna outside the assembly hall to protest against what it described as the state’s “Kashmir-dominated” power politics. From time to time, it launched agitations against what it believed was the regional discrimination against Jammu.
However, within the assembly, it had an insignificant presence. It was only in the 1990s that the BJP slowly started gaining strength. In 1996, it won eight assembly seats. Just over a decade later in 2008, it won 11 seats in the wake of the political mobilisation in Jammu region during the Amarnath agitation relating to the transfer of forest land to Amarnath Shrine trust to build facilities for Hindu pilgrims. However, few imagined that it could do better than that number. The post-2008 phase saw the party’s popularity drop as eight of its MLAs were suspended by the party for cross-voting during the Legislative Council elections.
Modi wave
Before the Modi wave swept the electoral politics of India, there was a general feeling that BJP would lose to Congress in the assembly election. However, the BJP’s victory in the Parliamentary election changed the scenario. The party won both Lok Sabha constituencies in Jammu region and the single seat in Ladakh. With Congress losing out at the national level and its leader Ghulam Nabi Azad being defeated at the local level, the BJP rewrote its script for the state.
Despite the absence of effective local leadership, the election was contested in the name of Modi. The party’s “Mission 44-plus”, marking its intention to get a majority in the 87-member house, further boosted morale, especially in Jammu. The result was spectacular. It ended up being the largest party in terms of its vote share. From 15.22% vote share in 2008, it rose to 23% and bagged 25 seats.
Certainly, the BJP failed in its Mission 44-plus and failed to capture even a single seat in the Valley. However, that does not in any case diminish the success of this party because its entry in the politics of Kashmir was largely of symbolic nature. It did not have any base in the Valley and its only chance of winning was based on Muslim voters boycotting the election in the constituencies where there were significant number of Kashmiri Pandit voters. However, the high voter turnout in those segments put paid to the BJP’s chances.
Ladakh loss
What is significant though is, the BJP’s loss in Ladakh. After winning the region’s sole Parliamentary seat in May, it had expected to do well, especially in the Buddhist-dominated district of Leh. The party had invested enough energy in this area, and expected victory on at least two assembly seats. However, the Congress won three of the four seats in this region.
Within Jammu, however, the BJP’s dominance was clearly reflected as it won almost all but three seats of the four contiguous districts in the Hindu-dominated belt. The BJP was also able to make a dent in the Congress stronghold in the more plural Doda-belt. Of the six constituencies here, the BJP won four. Similarly, in the Rajouri district with its mixed population, BJP has won two of the four seats.
By winning 25 of the 37 seats in Jammu, the BJP has been able to consolidate the Hindu votes, not only at the cost of the Congress, but also the National Conference and the Panthers Party. These parties together had held 22 seats (Congress 13, NC six, Panthers three) and now hold only eight seats.
Altered political landscape
With the BJP making a dent in the electoral politics of the state, the relative position of all parties has significantly changed. The ruling National Conference, which had emerged as the largest party both in 2002 and 2008 election, was placed at third position after the BJP and the PDP. Being in power, it certainly faced the anti-incumbency factor but its problems were exacerbated by its inability to provide help and direction during September’s devastating floods in the region.
However, given that the NC was wiped out during the Parliamentary election, its performance in the assembly on the whole has not been as bad as many political pundits had been proclaiming. It attained a vote share of more than 20% and had some unexpected victories.
The PDP has emerged as the largest party in the state but with its morale having being boosted after the Parliamentary election when it captured all the three seats in Kashmir valley, it was expecting to perform much better. Its share of votes is comparable to that of BJP (22.7%). As expected, it has retained its hold in the South Kashmir. More interestingly, it has gained entry into NC strongholds in central Kashmir. Its most spectacular victories in the NC stronghold were Sonwar from where Omar Abdullah was defeated (though he won a second seat he had contested in Beerwah) and Chrari Sharief, where it beat the finance minister Abdul Rahim Rather.
Significant also was the performance of the People’s Conference. This party returned two of its candidates including the party chief, Sajjad Gani Lone. The separatist who took the bold decision to enter the electoral space, did not succeed in the 2009 Parliamentary election. But this time, he not only won his own seat from Handwara constituency but also got a seat for the party in Kupwara.
We welcome your comments at
letters@scroll.in.
This has been an unprecedented performance by the BJP, which has finally emerged as a powerful political force in the state. It has been making its presence felt since its origins in the Bharatiya Jana Sangh in the 1960s and even before that when it worked through Praja Parishad. But till the onset of militancy in the 1980s, the party’s visibility was limited to protest politics.
Every year, when the state government moved to the winter capital of Jammu, the BJP followed a ritual of calling for a Jammu bandh and sitting on dharna outside the assembly hall to protest against what it described as the state’s “Kashmir-dominated” power politics. From time to time, it launched agitations against what it believed was the regional discrimination against Jammu.
However, within the assembly, it had an insignificant presence. It was only in the 1990s that the BJP slowly started gaining strength. In 1996, it won eight assembly seats. Just over a decade later in 2008, it won 11 seats in the wake of the political mobilisation in Jammu region during the Amarnath agitation relating to the transfer of forest land to Amarnath Shrine trust to build facilities for Hindu pilgrims. However, few imagined that it could do better than that number. The post-2008 phase saw the party’s popularity drop as eight of its MLAs were suspended by the party for cross-voting during the Legislative Council elections.
Modi wave
Before the Modi wave swept the electoral politics of India, there was a general feeling that BJP would lose to Congress in the assembly election. However, the BJP’s victory in the Parliamentary election changed the scenario. The party won both Lok Sabha constituencies in Jammu region and the single seat in Ladakh. With Congress losing out at the national level and its leader Ghulam Nabi Azad being defeated at the local level, the BJP rewrote its script for the state.
Despite the absence of effective local leadership, the election was contested in the name of Modi. The party’s “Mission 44-plus”, marking its intention to get a majority in the 87-member house, further boosted morale, especially in Jammu. The result was spectacular. It ended up being the largest party in terms of its vote share. From 15.22% vote share in 2008, it rose to 23% and bagged 25 seats.
Certainly, the BJP failed in its Mission 44-plus and failed to capture even a single seat in the Valley. However, that does not in any case diminish the success of this party because its entry in the politics of Kashmir was largely of symbolic nature. It did not have any base in the Valley and its only chance of winning was based on Muslim voters boycotting the election in the constituencies where there were significant number of Kashmiri Pandit voters. However, the high voter turnout in those segments put paid to the BJP’s chances.
Ladakh loss
What is significant though is, the BJP’s loss in Ladakh. After winning the region’s sole Parliamentary seat in May, it had expected to do well, especially in the Buddhist-dominated district of Leh. The party had invested enough energy in this area, and expected victory on at least two assembly seats. However, the Congress won three of the four seats in this region.
Within Jammu, however, the BJP’s dominance was clearly reflected as it won almost all but three seats of the four contiguous districts in the Hindu-dominated belt. The BJP was also able to make a dent in the Congress stronghold in the more plural Doda-belt. Of the six constituencies here, the BJP won four. Similarly, in the Rajouri district with its mixed population, BJP has won two of the four seats.
By winning 25 of the 37 seats in Jammu, the BJP has been able to consolidate the Hindu votes, not only at the cost of the Congress, but also the National Conference and the Panthers Party. These parties together had held 22 seats (Congress 13, NC six, Panthers three) and now hold only eight seats.
Altered political landscape
With the BJP making a dent in the electoral politics of the state, the relative position of all parties has significantly changed. The ruling National Conference, which had emerged as the largest party both in 2002 and 2008 election, was placed at third position after the BJP and the PDP. Being in power, it certainly faced the anti-incumbency factor but its problems were exacerbated by its inability to provide help and direction during September’s devastating floods in the region.
However, given that the NC was wiped out during the Parliamentary election, its performance in the assembly on the whole has not been as bad as many political pundits had been proclaiming. It attained a vote share of more than 20% and had some unexpected victories.
The PDP has emerged as the largest party in the state but with its morale having being boosted after the Parliamentary election when it captured all the three seats in Kashmir valley, it was expecting to perform much better. Its share of votes is comparable to that of BJP (22.7%). As expected, it has retained its hold in the South Kashmir. More interestingly, it has gained entry into NC strongholds in central Kashmir. Its most spectacular victories in the NC stronghold were Sonwar from where Omar Abdullah was defeated (though he won a second seat he had contested in Beerwah) and Chrari Sharief, where it beat the finance minister Abdul Rahim Rather.
Significant also was the performance of the People’s Conference. This party returned two of its candidates including the party chief, Sajjad Gani Lone. The separatist who took the bold decision to enter the electoral space, did not succeed in the 2009 Parliamentary election. But this time, he not only won his own seat from Handwara constituency but also got a seat for the party in Kupwara.