It has been called Jammu and Kashmir’s Black Swan moment, a historic opportunity to heal divisions in the deeply polarised state, and a test of sagacity for Narendra Modi and the People’s Democratic Party’s Mufti Muhammad Sayeed.
The idea that the PDP should reach out to the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress to form some kind of grand alliance government is being vigorously promoted and avidly debated in J&K. Its supporters claim it would be the best way of reconciling the state’s three different regions ‒ the Kashmir Valley, Jammu and Ladakh ‒ which voted radically differently in the just-concluded elections to the 87-member legislative assembly.
Jammu overwhelmingly backed the BJP, giving it 25 (or two-thirds) of the region’s 37 seats. The Valley (46 seats) rejected the BJP altogether, and strongly favoured the PDP with 25 seats, to the National Conference’s 11 and Congress’s four. The Congress won three of Ladakh’s four seats.
Message of unity
Although there are variants of the alliance theme, including one which includes the NC, and another that lays emphasis on roping in some of the seven MLAs who are independent or come from small parties, the core idea is that the two extreme opposites, the PDP (28 seats) and the BJP (25), should come together. If they win the support of a few more MLAs, they can form a potentially stable majority government; this in turn can send a strong message of unity to Pakistan, domestically generate a momentum for peace and reconciliation, and eventually facilitate a solution to the long-festering Kashmir situation.
My discussions with a number of MLAs from the PDP and other parties suggest that Mufti is inclined, with some reservations, to pursue this strategy and is discussing it in one-on-one meetings with individual MLAs. But some of them oppose it – not least because, as one of them put it, “We presented ourselves during the election campaign as a bulwark against the BJP-RSS in the Valley… Even Governor’s Rule or a BJP-NC alliance would be better than a PDP-BJP coalition.”
As the PDP vacillates, the local BJP unit is pushing for a Hindu from Jammu to be made the Chief Minister of India’s only Muslim-majority state. There are also sharp differences between the two parties on Article 370 of the Constitution (which guarantees special status to J&K), the Armed Forces Special Powers Act, porous borders and dialogue with Pakistan and the release of political prisoners, among other things.
The PDP’s fairly strong stand on these issues, which the BJP condemns as “soft-separatist”, marks its distinct identity vis-a-vis the NC and Congress. It has powered the PDP’s steady rise in the Valley over 15 years, and is considered by many as key to the party’s future success. If, despite this, the PDP still countenances some dilution of this identity, that’s because it has no base whatever in Jammu.
Dangling carrots
This has given the BJP unprecedented leverage over the PDP. The saffron party has also offered the PDP the lure of special Central funds and favourable treatment for the flood-affected Valley. Others in the party have spoken of the virtues of a “grand embrace” between the two regions.
But this is a proposition that reduces people to their religious affiliations alone and negates the tremendous diversity that exists within each of J&K’s regions and sub-regions. This diversity, with generous federalism, can accommodate Jammu’s legitimate regional concerns – without bestowing on the BJP the status of Jammu’s sole representative.
No party has a full mandate to rule J&K. It would be delusional for the PDP to act as if it did – and utterly suicidal to ally with the BJP in a “grand embrace” even if it concedes all of the PDP’s demands.
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The idea that the PDP should reach out to the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress to form some kind of grand alliance government is being vigorously promoted and avidly debated in J&K. Its supporters claim it would be the best way of reconciling the state’s three different regions ‒ the Kashmir Valley, Jammu and Ladakh ‒ which voted radically differently in the just-concluded elections to the 87-member legislative assembly.
Jammu overwhelmingly backed the BJP, giving it 25 (or two-thirds) of the region’s 37 seats. The Valley (46 seats) rejected the BJP altogether, and strongly favoured the PDP with 25 seats, to the National Conference’s 11 and Congress’s four. The Congress won three of Ladakh’s four seats.
Message of unity
Although there are variants of the alliance theme, including one which includes the NC, and another that lays emphasis on roping in some of the seven MLAs who are independent or come from small parties, the core idea is that the two extreme opposites, the PDP (28 seats) and the BJP (25), should come together. If they win the support of a few more MLAs, they can form a potentially stable majority government; this in turn can send a strong message of unity to Pakistan, domestically generate a momentum for peace and reconciliation, and eventually facilitate a solution to the long-festering Kashmir situation.
My discussions with a number of MLAs from the PDP and other parties suggest that Mufti is inclined, with some reservations, to pursue this strategy and is discussing it in one-on-one meetings with individual MLAs. But some of them oppose it – not least because, as one of them put it, “We presented ourselves during the election campaign as a bulwark against the BJP-RSS in the Valley… Even Governor’s Rule or a BJP-NC alliance would be better than a PDP-BJP coalition.”
As the PDP vacillates, the local BJP unit is pushing for a Hindu from Jammu to be made the Chief Minister of India’s only Muslim-majority state. There are also sharp differences between the two parties on Article 370 of the Constitution (which guarantees special status to J&K), the Armed Forces Special Powers Act, porous borders and dialogue with Pakistan and the release of political prisoners, among other things.
The PDP’s fairly strong stand on these issues, which the BJP condemns as “soft-separatist”, marks its distinct identity vis-a-vis the NC and Congress. It has powered the PDP’s steady rise in the Valley over 15 years, and is considered by many as key to the party’s future success. If, despite this, the PDP still countenances some dilution of this identity, that’s because it has no base whatever in Jammu.
Dangling carrots
This has given the BJP unprecedented leverage over the PDP. The saffron party has also offered the PDP the lure of special Central funds and favourable treatment for the flood-affected Valley. Others in the party have spoken of the virtues of a “grand embrace” between the two regions.
But this is a proposition that reduces people to their religious affiliations alone and negates the tremendous diversity that exists within each of J&K’s regions and sub-regions. This diversity, with generous federalism, can accommodate Jammu’s legitimate regional concerns – without bestowing on the BJP the status of Jammu’s sole representative.
No party has a full mandate to rule J&K. It would be delusional for the PDP to act as if it did – and utterly suicidal to ally with the BJP in a “grand embrace” even if it concedes all of the PDP’s demands.