Recent statements made by Rashtriya Janata Dal leders suggesting that their party is not interested in a tie-up with the Janata Dal (United) in the forthcoming Bihar assembly elections have spurred suspicion in the capital that the Bharatiya Janata Party is working on RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav to back off from this alliance.
It is well acknowledged that the BJP does not want the RJD and JD(U) to have a poll pact since their combined strength and estimated vote share of 42% could make it difficult for the saffron outfit to dislodge the Nitish Kumar government in Bihar.
For the BJP, the coming election is crucial for more than one reason. After its wipe-out in the Delhi assembly poll, the BJP needs to win Bihar to re-establish its image as the dominant political force in the country and to underline that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s magic has not waned.
A victory in Bihar will be a stepping stone for the BJP to spread its wings in the eastern states, where it has virtually no presence at present. In addition, it will demoralise the opposition, making it easier for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance government to deal with the opposition in Parliament, especially the Rajya Sabha, where it is in a minority. Above all, the BJP wants to settle scores with Kumar, whose antipathy towards Modi is well known.
Buying some time
Given the stakes in this election, BJP president Amit Shah is said to be working through Lalu Yadav’s close associate Premchand Gupta to make sure that the RJD-JD(U) alliance does not materialise. Gupta’s son is alleged to be involved in a coal scam and the BJP is reported to have assured him assistance, provided Gupta can use his influence with Lalu Yadav to scuttle the electoral pact with Nitish Kumar.
To create friction, Lalu Yadav is being reminded about how Nitish Kumar had attacked him after the two parted ways nearly two decades ago. The RJD leader is also aware that his Yadav-Muslim support base is larger than what the Janata Dal (United) leader brings to the table.
The JD(U) and the Congress, which is hoping to be part of this alliance, are convinced of the BJP’s role in wrecking the proposed partnership.
According to a Congress leader, the RJD may be willing to concede victory to the BJP to marginalise Nitish Kumar and establish itself as the main opposition party in Bihar. “In any case, Lalu Yadav is not eligible to contest the forthcoming elections because of the criminal cases pending against him,” explained a Bihar Congress leader. “He needs the next five years to come out of this legal mess and groom his children to take charge of the party.”
It was pointed out that Yadav had deliberately derailed his alliance with Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party in the run-up to the last Lok Sabha elections. On one hand, the RJD doled out losing seats to the Congress and, on the other hand, it played tough with Paswan, virtually pushing him out of the United Progressive Alliance. As a result of this, the RJD, JD(U) and Congress were decimated by the BJP in Bihar.
Open challenges
With contradictory signals emanating from the RJD camp, the JD(U) and Congress believe that Lalu Yadav is travelling down the same road again.
The RJD chief has extended an open invitation to Nitish Kumar bete noire Jitan Ram Manjhi to join hands with his party to defeat the BJP. At the same time, he has expelled RJD Lok Sabha member Rajesh Ranjan, alias Pappu Yadav, from the party a few months before a crucial assembly poll although Lalu Yadav realises the need to keep his Yadav supporters intact at a time when they are veering towards the BJP. Pappu Yadav has since launched a new political outfit, Jan Kranti Adhikar Morcha, and is not averse to helping out the BJP.
“Lalu Yadav is under the mistaken impression that his party stands to benefit if he does not tie-up with Nitish Kumar but, in the end, the RJD could end up a poor loser if the anti-BJP vote is fragmented,” said a senior Congress leader.
The JD(U) is perplexed at the sudden change in the RJD’s stance. Lalu Yadav had been more than willing to patch up with his old friend-turned-foe Nitish Kumar after the last Lok Sabha election when both realised that they needed each other to take on a resurgent BJP.
Solo act
However, after his initial enthusiasm in pushing for a merger of all the Janata Dal offshoots, the recent statements of Lalu Yadav and his party members have sent out conflicting signals. Senior RJD leader Raghuvansh Prasad Singh publicly said that the two parties should share seats on the basis of the results of the Lok Sabha election, when the RJD had fared better that the JD(U). He also said his party was not in favour of projecting Nitish Kumar as the alliance’s chief ministerial candidate.
Nitish Kumar hit back, saying his party is willing to contest the election on its own and asked his cadres to get ready to go solo. At the same time, the Congress said it would prefer to go with the JD(U) if its tie-up with the RJD did not work out in an attempt Lalu Yadav to firm up the pact. On his part, the RJD chief struck a conciliatory note in his latest public statements, saying their partnership was on course. He also sent an emissary on Wednesday to talk to Nitish Kumar.
It is now to be seen if Lalu Yadav goes with Nitish Kumar, or if the BJP succeeds in its mission to keep the RJD and JD(U) apart.
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It is well acknowledged that the BJP does not want the RJD and JD(U) to have a poll pact since their combined strength and estimated vote share of 42% could make it difficult for the saffron outfit to dislodge the Nitish Kumar government in Bihar.
For the BJP, the coming election is crucial for more than one reason. After its wipe-out in the Delhi assembly poll, the BJP needs to win Bihar to re-establish its image as the dominant political force in the country and to underline that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s magic has not waned.
A victory in Bihar will be a stepping stone for the BJP to spread its wings in the eastern states, where it has virtually no presence at present. In addition, it will demoralise the opposition, making it easier for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance government to deal with the opposition in Parliament, especially the Rajya Sabha, where it is in a minority. Above all, the BJP wants to settle scores with Kumar, whose antipathy towards Modi is well known.
Buying some time
Given the stakes in this election, BJP president Amit Shah is said to be working through Lalu Yadav’s close associate Premchand Gupta to make sure that the RJD-JD(U) alliance does not materialise. Gupta’s son is alleged to be involved in a coal scam and the BJP is reported to have assured him assistance, provided Gupta can use his influence with Lalu Yadav to scuttle the electoral pact with Nitish Kumar.
To create friction, Lalu Yadav is being reminded about how Nitish Kumar had attacked him after the two parted ways nearly two decades ago. The RJD leader is also aware that his Yadav-Muslim support base is larger than what the Janata Dal (United) leader brings to the table.
The JD(U) and the Congress, which is hoping to be part of this alliance, are convinced of the BJP’s role in wrecking the proposed partnership.
According to a Congress leader, the RJD may be willing to concede victory to the BJP to marginalise Nitish Kumar and establish itself as the main opposition party in Bihar. “In any case, Lalu Yadav is not eligible to contest the forthcoming elections because of the criminal cases pending against him,” explained a Bihar Congress leader. “He needs the next five years to come out of this legal mess and groom his children to take charge of the party.”
It was pointed out that Yadav had deliberately derailed his alliance with Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party in the run-up to the last Lok Sabha elections. On one hand, the RJD doled out losing seats to the Congress and, on the other hand, it played tough with Paswan, virtually pushing him out of the United Progressive Alliance. As a result of this, the RJD, JD(U) and Congress were decimated by the BJP in Bihar.
Open challenges
With contradictory signals emanating from the RJD camp, the JD(U) and Congress believe that Lalu Yadav is travelling down the same road again.
The RJD chief has extended an open invitation to Nitish Kumar bete noire Jitan Ram Manjhi to join hands with his party to defeat the BJP. At the same time, he has expelled RJD Lok Sabha member Rajesh Ranjan, alias Pappu Yadav, from the party a few months before a crucial assembly poll although Lalu Yadav realises the need to keep his Yadav supporters intact at a time when they are veering towards the BJP. Pappu Yadav has since launched a new political outfit, Jan Kranti Adhikar Morcha, and is not averse to helping out the BJP.
“Lalu Yadav is under the mistaken impression that his party stands to benefit if he does not tie-up with Nitish Kumar but, in the end, the RJD could end up a poor loser if the anti-BJP vote is fragmented,” said a senior Congress leader.
The JD(U) is perplexed at the sudden change in the RJD’s stance. Lalu Yadav had been more than willing to patch up with his old friend-turned-foe Nitish Kumar after the last Lok Sabha election when both realised that they needed each other to take on a resurgent BJP.
Solo act
However, after his initial enthusiasm in pushing for a merger of all the Janata Dal offshoots, the recent statements of Lalu Yadav and his party members have sent out conflicting signals. Senior RJD leader Raghuvansh Prasad Singh publicly said that the two parties should share seats on the basis of the results of the Lok Sabha election, when the RJD had fared better that the JD(U). He also said his party was not in favour of projecting Nitish Kumar as the alliance’s chief ministerial candidate.
Nitish Kumar hit back, saying his party is willing to contest the election on its own and asked his cadres to get ready to go solo. At the same time, the Congress said it would prefer to go with the JD(U) if its tie-up with the RJD did not work out in an attempt Lalu Yadav to firm up the pact. On his part, the RJD chief struck a conciliatory note in his latest public statements, saying their partnership was on course. He also sent an emissary on Wednesday to talk to Nitish Kumar.
It is now to be seen if Lalu Yadav goes with Nitish Kumar, or if the BJP succeeds in its mission to keep the RJD and JD(U) apart.