There is growing realisation in the government that it will be difficult to secure the passage of the bill in the monsoon session of parliament, opening next Tuesday, although Prime Minister Narendra Modi has flagged this legislation as a centrepiece of his reforms agenda.
While those opposing the bill have showed no signs of revising their position, the session promises to be a wash-out as the government will face the opposition heat on the Vyapam scandal, the impropriety charges against external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj and Rajasthan chief minister Vasundhara Raje, and the financial scandal involving Maharashtra minister Pankaja Munde.
The Bihar assembly election, due later this year, has further constrained the Modi government from rushing through the bill as it would provide the opposition an opportunity to dub the Bharatiya Janata Party as being insensitive to the interests of farmers. Since the Bihar election is crucial for the BJP, it would not like to take any step which could mar its electoral prospects. The BJP's political rivals ‒ the Janata Dal (U), the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress ‒ are set to unveil a high-pitched campaign against the Modi government on the land bill.
Opposition states dead against bill
A special meeting of the newly set-up NITI Ayog's governing council called by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday to discuss the land bill with chief ministers once again showed that virtually all non-BJP state governments remain steadfast in their opposition to the government's version of the legislation. Most opposition chief ministers did not show up for the meeting. All nine Congress chief ministers were asked by their leadership to boycott the deliberations as the party has made it abundantly clear that it will not support the NDA bill because the ruling alliance had diluted key provisions included by the United Progressive Alliance government.
West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee and Uttar Pradesh's Akhilesh Yadav, both of whom also stayed away from the meeting, are known opponents of the bill. In a letter to the prime minister, Banerjee pointed out that her party was opposed to the bill and would like it to be withdrawn since it would hurt the interests of farmers.
Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik and J Jayalalithaa also skipped the meeting. Though their parties had voted in favour of the bill in the Lok Sabha, they appear to have developed cold feet now. Jayalalithaa's speech, which was circulated at the meeting, pointed out that the farmers in Tamil Nadu were strongly opposed to certain provisions of the bill. "We believe that the present Amendments take away important safeguards that farmers and agriculture require. Hence, I urge the Government of India not to press these amendments," she said.
Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar and the Left's Tripura chief minister Manik Sarkar attended the meeting, but they were categorical that their parties would not support the Bill.
Speaking to the press after the meeting, finance minister Arun Jaitley sought to blame state governments opposing the bill for hampering development projects. But there are no takers for his argument. He also said that several state governments wanted the flexibility to enact their own laws in view of the delay in the passage of the central legislation.
This was disputed by a Congress leader, who pointed out that the states are already free to frame their own laws as long as they use the central legislation as a reference point.
Trouble in home camp
Given the line-up of parties ranged against the land bill, it is evident that the Modi government will face the same roadblocks in its passage in parliament as it had encountered in the last session. In addition to the opposition parties, the BJP's own allies like the Shiv Sena and the Shiromani Akali Dal also have strong reservations of going ahead with the bill which is increasingly being viewed to be "anti-farmer and pro corporate."
Moreover, organisations affiliated to the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh's have openly opposed the bill while several BJP MPs are also apprehensive about its adverse political impact and would prefer that the ruling alliance reconsider the legislation.
All those opposed to the bill have taken strong exception to the Modi government's decision to do away with the consent clause in the legislation and the provision on social impact assessment. Realising the futility of going ahead with the bill, which faces certain defeat in the Rajya Sabha, where the government does not have the numbers to secure it passage, it had accepted the opposition demand to refer the legislation to a joint committee of parliament for further scrutiny.
The panel has already been granted one extension, till July 28, but it is likely to seek more time for the submission of its report. Although the supporters and opponents of the bill are evenly divided in the 30-member committee, the Congress has declared its intention to move dissent notes if the bill is cleared by the panel. The committee is scheduled to meet next on Thursday.