“Stand up, if you’re 2-1 up!”
“Sit down, if you’re 2-1 down!”

The Barmy Army may not be made up of born-again Wordsworths, but these two lines that the England faithful, up on their feet and charged up with amber liquid, bellowed down from Edgbaston’s Hollies stand in the direction of the seated away support as the Three Lions closed in on victory in the third Test, would have made their point.

Not since 1936-37 has a similar scoreline going into the fourth Test of an Ashes series been overturned. The captain of that Australia team, which came back from behind to eventually clinch the series 3-2, was a certain Donald Bradman. The then 28-year-old plundered 810 runs in five Tests at an average of 90, including two double centuries, to lead from the front.

No comebacks

Heading into Trent Bridge, any Australian drawing inspiration from that great series 78 years ago would be a hopeless romantic. The touring side’s abysmal performance in Edgbaston (eight-wicket defeat) and Cardiff (169-run defeat) makes their 405-run win over England at Lord’s seem like an aberration.

The magnitude of the defeat England suffered in the second Test was much higher than their win in Cardiff and gave the impression that Australia had finally figured out how to win in England. However, after briefly losing their way around North West London, it is England who have figured out what they need to contain this otherwise bullish Australian side as they arrive in Nottingham for the fourth Test.

England’s biggest error in the second Test was not down to their cricket, but their strategy of manufacturing a track that would nullify Australia’s pace, rather than exaggerate the strengths of their own seam bowlers. James Anderson and Stuart Broad thrive on the seaming and swinging ball, which was indiscernible at Lord’s due to the absence of any green on the pitch. Unsurprisingly, England failed to bowl Australia out in either innings.

In Edgbaston, as the covers were lifted on the first morning, it was clear that England had realised their mistake. There was a tinge of green on what was a fantastic wicket for both batsmen and bowlers – a perfect Test match wicket.

That the match ended inside three days could only be put down to the fact that Australia, for the second time in this series, put in a miserable all-round performance without any application.

Australia’s unbatting

The Australian batsmen’s weakness against the moving ball were well known, but to get bowled out for 136 in the first innings after electing to bat was inexcusable. The main culprit has been the middle order. If you leave out the Lord's Test, the Australian numbers three to six have managed only 239 runs between them at less than 15 apiece.
The two batsmen who stick out here are captain Michael Clarke (94 runs in six innings at 18.80) and Adam Voges (73 runs in five innings at 14.60). At the end of the Edgbaston Test, Clarke was quick to acknowledge his shortcomings, admitting that his form was akin to Australia playing with 10 men.

In the last 12 months, the 34-year-old has scored just 365 runs in eight matches at 28.07. However, even though Australia have got a well-set captain-in-waiting, Steven Smith, dropping Clarke and changing skippers in the middle of an Ashes series wouldn’t be wise.

Clarke said that the thought of giving up his captaincy or retiring had not crossed him yet and that he hopes to turn his form around sooner than later. “My self-belief is still there and that’s because I continue to work as hard as I have throughout my career,” he said, at the end of the third Test.

Australia could rejig the batting order and drop Clarke to number five, where he averages double (61.83) of what he does at number four (30.89). Shaun Marsh, who has hit two centuries in practice games on this tour, may come in at four to replace Voges in the side.

How to deliver?

As for the bowlers, the trio of Mitchell Johnson, Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood were guilty of succumbing to scoreboard pressure at Edgbaston after their batting collapse in the first innings. Searching for wickets, the three quicks lost their rhythm and got their lines and lengths all messed up.

With the reliable precision of Peter Siddle, who even has the experience of playing county cricket for Nottinghamshire, waiting on the sidelines, it would be tempting for the selectors to drop either Starc or Hazlewood. However, Starc was Australia’s best bowler in Cardiff (5-114 and 2-60), while Hazlewood is the leading wicket-taker (14) from either team.

The solution is quite simple: on English pitches, you have to bowl a good length. Bowling short, as the Australians are used to doing back home, isn’t going to pay any dividends as the ball will just sit up for the batsman to whack. And if you bowl too full, you will be easily driven. The English seamers have just been getting their lines and lengths right, letting the natural variations of the pitch and overhead conditions do the rest.

England on a roll

Trent Bridge is likely to produce conditions similar to Edgbaston, although if last summer’s pitch against India is anything to go by it will be closer to Cardiff than Birmingham. In any case, for Australia’s batsmen and bowlers, it’s a matter of reading the conditions rightly and sticking to a plan, like they did at Lord’s.

“I think we showed at Lord’s how we can play,” said Clarke. “We have to perform like that every Test match if we have to win over here. We need to turn things around and just keep believing. It was only a few days ago that we played some wonderful cricket, so we know we’ve got it in us. We just have to turn up and be ready in Nottingham.”

As for England, the only dampener on their morale-boosting win at Edgbaston was the injury sustained by Anderson to his side, which has ruled him out of playing at Trent Bridge – a venue where he has taken 53 wickets at an average of just 19.24.

While the England selectors have drafted in Liam Plunkett and Mark Footitt as backups, as close to a like-for-like replacement for Anderson would be Mark Wood, who missed out at Edgbaston due to an ankle injury. If the pitch at Nottingham looks like it will boost seam bowlers, Wood, fitness-permitting, is most likely get the nod. However, if it lacks any pace whatsoever, the experienced and quick Plunkett could come into the picture.

Whoever is Anderson's replacement in the XI, the onus will lie with Broad to lead the English bowling attack. After a strong start to the series, the 29-year-old was was overshadowed by Anderson and Steven Finn at Edgbaston. However, Trent Bridge is his home ground and he is only one wicket away from joining the 300 club. He could not have asked for a better occasion to take the reins.

In the batting, Ian Bell’s rediscovery of his form after being promoted to number three would have calmed a few nerves in England’s think tank. Meanwhile, the win at Edgbaston has given opener Adam Lyth (72 runs in six innings) and wicketkeeper-batsman Jos Buttler (67 runs in five innings) a longer rope. A defeat and another poor showing at Trent Bridge may see the selectors run out of patience.

The burden of history

Despite the manner of England’s victory at Edgbaston, a defeat at Trent Bridge isn't as ludicrous a suggestion as it sounds. The words ‘consistently inconsistent’ have come to define the Three Lions this summer, with a record seven-match sequence of WLWLWLW going into the fourth Test.

Skipper Alastair Cook joked that he would be delighted if the sequence goes to nine, which will hand England the Ashes 3-2. “No, it will be nice to break that trend at Trent Bridge,” said Cook.

Clarke said that if the sequence follows until the Trent Bridge Test, he’ll go with that. Australia only need to draw the series to retain the Ashes, but Clarke said that given the nature of the pitches, the remaining two matches are likely to produce results. So far, no match in this series has gone into the fifth day.

“I think we’ve seen with two good bowling attacks [that] getting 20 wickets has probably been the easiest part of the series so far,” said Clarke. “Making enough runs has been the most difficult [part], so I’m confident that if they keep producing wickets like that we will see two results. If we play like the way we did at Lord’s I’m confident it will be us that will be winning.”

Australia find themselves in a must-win situation at Trent Bridge to stop England from snatching the urn. A win for the visitors would set up the climax to this fascinating series nicely at the Oval. However, despite England’s consistent inconsistency and Anderson’s absence, smart money would still be on the hosts, unless the wicket at Trent Bridge resembles Lord’s.