The outcome of the Bihar election is a watershed for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. It has not just dented his unchallenged standing in the Bharatiya Janata Party but has also strongly undermined his government at the Centre.
As with most state elections, the polls in Bihar would not have had such far-reaching ramifications ‒ but the BJP has put itself in a bind by committing serious strategic errors. By deciding not to project a chief ministerial candidate and to seek votes in the name of the prime minister, the saffron party allowed the Bihar assembly polls to be perceived as a referendum on the performance of his government at the Centre.
As it turned out, the verdict was a resounding vote of no confidence.
The Bihar result reconfirms the changing mood of the nation, which was first reflected in the Delhi assembly polls where the saffron party got merely three out of 70 seats. It also deals a blow to the prime minister’s aura of invincibility and weakens the authority of Amit Shah, the BJP president whose term comes up for renewal next January. Indeed, many believe that Shah, the executioner of the prime minister’s political strategies, could well be the first direct victim of Bihar.
Dashed hopes
In practical terms, the Modi-centric electoral strategy – which the BJP was so confident of – is now unlikely to be deployed as states, including Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh, go to polls during the next 18 months.
For Modi, the biggest challenge now will be regaining the aura of invincibility that had turned him into his party’s most precious political asset. If he decides to do this by pushing himself further into campaign mode, he risks losing his image as the leader of the national government. Already his leadership has been questioned by protesting writers, artists, filmmakers and historians in light of the rising intolerance in the country. Those voices are likely to get louder, if sectarian rhetoric continues to emanate from his party.
Another challenge for Modi will be a more aggressive opposition. The opposition parties, having tasted blood, are likely to exploit the blow to Brand Modi, and the first casualty may well be the winter session of Parliament. There are indications already that just as the monsoon session was washed out on the question of charges against senior BJP leaders, the upcoming session will fall prey to the issue of intolerance and the opposition’s unmet demand for the resignations of BJP leaders accused of impropriety.
The Rajya Sabha arithmetic too will weaken Modi’s ability to break the parliamentary deadlock. The BJP has just 48 members in the 250-member Upper House, and it had hoped that a victory in Bihar would bolster its presence there a little. It had calculated that the victory march in Bihar would help it sail through the other crucial state of Uttar Pradesh.
The message from Bihar has, however, dashed all its hopes.
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As with most state elections, the polls in Bihar would not have had such far-reaching ramifications ‒ but the BJP has put itself in a bind by committing serious strategic errors. By deciding not to project a chief ministerial candidate and to seek votes in the name of the prime minister, the saffron party allowed the Bihar assembly polls to be perceived as a referendum on the performance of his government at the Centre.
As it turned out, the verdict was a resounding vote of no confidence.
The Bihar result reconfirms the changing mood of the nation, which was first reflected in the Delhi assembly polls where the saffron party got merely three out of 70 seats. It also deals a blow to the prime minister’s aura of invincibility and weakens the authority of Amit Shah, the BJP president whose term comes up for renewal next January. Indeed, many believe that Shah, the executioner of the prime minister’s political strategies, could well be the first direct victim of Bihar.
Dashed hopes
In practical terms, the Modi-centric electoral strategy – which the BJP was so confident of – is now unlikely to be deployed as states, including Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh, go to polls during the next 18 months.
For Modi, the biggest challenge now will be regaining the aura of invincibility that had turned him into his party’s most precious political asset. If he decides to do this by pushing himself further into campaign mode, he risks losing his image as the leader of the national government. Already his leadership has been questioned by protesting writers, artists, filmmakers and historians in light of the rising intolerance in the country. Those voices are likely to get louder, if sectarian rhetoric continues to emanate from his party.
Another challenge for Modi will be a more aggressive opposition. The opposition parties, having tasted blood, are likely to exploit the blow to Brand Modi, and the first casualty may well be the winter session of Parliament. There are indications already that just as the monsoon session was washed out on the question of charges against senior BJP leaders, the upcoming session will fall prey to the issue of intolerance and the opposition’s unmet demand for the resignations of BJP leaders accused of impropriety.
The Rajya Sabha arithmetic too will weaken Modi’s ability to break the parliamentary deadlock. The BJP has just 48 members in the 250-member Upper House, and it had hoped that a victory in Bihar would bolster its presence there a little. It had calculated that the victory march in Bihar would help it sail through the other crucial state of Uttar Pradesh.
The message from Bihar has, however, dashed all its hopes.