On a hot June night, Ahmed Mahloof sat at a dimly-lit café by a beach, carefully coating a betel leaf with lime and pan masala. Four years ago, the Member of Parliament led a series of anti-government rallies that eventually led to the resignation of Mohamed Nasheed, who was president at the time. That night, as the newly-appointed spokesperson of the Maldives United Opposition – a multi-party Opposition alliance whose explicit agenda is to restore democracy in the Indian Ocean archipelago – Mahloof discussed plans to ensure the downfall of the government he had helped bring to power.

“I really hope it takes two months,” he said. “Whatever we do, we should do it in two months.”

Mahloof is now serving a combined 10-month prison sentence for two counts of “obstructing police duty”, and has alleged he is the victim of political persecution. He is not alone in this. Over the past three months, the police has arrested and interrogated several members of the Opposition. Arrest warrants were issued against Opposition leaders namely former President Mohamed Nasheed and former Vice-President Mohamed Jameel, who have been living in exile in the United Kingdom.

For Mahloof and other detainees, there seems to be no reprieve in sight. And the question they may be asking is: have their efforts to “restore democracy” in the country failed?

The plan

The attempt to challenge President Abdulla Yameen began with fanfare. On June 1, Nasheed spoke before members of the international media in London. He spoke highly of his coalition partners – Adhaalath Party, Jumhooree Party and representatives of former Vice-President Ahmed Adeeb and former Defence Minister Colonel Nazim (both of whom have been imprisoned in past months on different charges), every one of whom had allegedly conspired to strip him of the presidency in 2012.

“I commend all the Opposition leaders…I salute them,” said Nasheed. “I understand how difficult it is to take this step, but we have come to this understanding knowing the gravity of issues faced by our people.”

Theirs was to be a three-pronged approach: build up momentum through street protests, engage with law-enforcement agencies to investigate corruption allegations against President Abdulla Yameen, and lobby international powers to impose targeted sanctions.

On July 21, nearly 5,000 people defied a ban on street protests in the capital Malé to attend an inaugural rally to bring about a regime change, echoing the Maldives United Opposition’s call for the President’s resignation. But in the nightly protests held since, an Opposition MP rued, it has been a struggle to replicate the numbers of protestors seen in July.

The arbitrary detention of activists, violent crackdown on protestors and journalists, and long sentences for those arrested seem to have demotivated many.

“Even if thousands of people come out, it won’t help if the police, Army and the judiciary aren’t on our side,” said the Opposition MP.

In September, Nasheed finally admitted to shortcomings in his plans. “There are a number of things that have to happen and we are working on them,” he told The Indian Express.

Commonwealth intervention

After repeated no-show at the rallies, the Opposition pinned its hopes on the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group. In a meeting held in February, the body had expressed concern about the ongoing political crisis in the Maldives.

On September 21, when the representatives of the Commonwealth met on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, they had before them a report by Dr Willy Mutunga, a special envoy appointed to look into what he would later describe as the “severe democracy deficit” in the Maldives.

The report said:

“The curtailment of fundamental freedoms of expression and assembly has created an environment of fear and intimidation. The long-term detention of political leaders has eroded the government and the judiciary’s legitimacy.”

It recommended that the Commonwealth consider a “full range of options”.

On September 18, the Commonwealth Human Rights Initiative, a New Delhi-based Non-Governmental Organisation affiliated to the body, called for the complete suspension of the Maldives from the council.

The Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group, however, ruled to put the country on its agenda – a step short of complete suspension. Though the Maldives Opposition welcomed the ruling, it could not hold back its disappointment.

“Maybe there’s a mismatch between the expectations of the Maldivian people and the action taken by the international community,” said Hamid Abdul Ghafoor, spokesperson of the Maldives United Opposition. “[The ruling] is only marginal by the speed things are happening.”

He expressed regret that despite being a close ally, India has been silent on the domestic upheaval in the Indian ocean archipelago, and did not take a stand even as the Maldives government came under fire from the international community, including the United Nations, the European Union and the US State Department, and after the Yameen government reintroduced the death penalty and made defamation a criminal offence in the past few months.

With no cues forthcoming from the regional superpower, the Maldives United Opposition’s demand for targeted sanctions is unlikely to be granted.

With little going for it, the Opposition was forced to backtrack on its refusal to engage with the government. It had earlier stated that it would not agree to talks unless jailed and exiled Opposition leaders, including Nasheed, Colonel Nazim and Shaikh Imran, leader of the Adhaalath Party, were released.

In his report, Mutunga, the Commonwealth’s special envoy, had insisted that an all-party dialogue was “badly needed”.

‘A domestic issue’

Said Mohamed Shainee, the government’s representative for the all-party talks: “The CMAG [Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group] ruling is an indication to the group [MUO] that the Maldives issue has to be solved internally.”

He added: “You can’t get legitimacy by staying away.”

Though Shainee reiterated the government’s commitment to dialogue, the government has not been willing to cede ground to the Opposition.

Last year, in July, the two are believed to have brokered a deal to resume dialogue if Nasheed and other jailed politicians were released and the Opposition helped impeach Mohamed Jameel, who was then the vice-president. But the prosecution of Opposition leaders continued even after a successful vote of no-confidence against Jameel, forcing Nasheed to flee the country and seek exile in the UK.

Dead end?

So what have been the achievements of the Maldives United Opposition so far?

“That we have stayed together,” said Ghafoor. His comments, made on September 24, are quite telling when one considers that it is little more than a reiteration of the achievement made in London four months ago.

On September 14, Nasheed made a feeble attempt to revive the sagging spirits of his supporters. He told the media that he had joined hands with his political nemesis and former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, who belongs to the ruling party.

Gayoom, who ruled the country for nearly 30 years till 2008, continues to be an influential figure. But ties between Gayoom and President Yameen, his half-brother, had deteriorated in July after Gayoom’s son was expelled from the party.

Earlier this month, an Al Jazeera report had sources saying that Nasheed and Gayoom had reached an agreement to form an alliance after Nasheed coughed up $50,000 as a “show of goodwill”.

While both Nasheed and Gayoom denied the reports, it was clear that Nasheed’s statement that he was joining hands with Gayoom, if true, was only strategic power-play.

However, the next day, the Progressive Party of Maldives denied any such alliance as did Gayoom, who tweeted: “Truth will be truth even if you say it once. A lie is a lie even if you repeat it a thousand times”.

The Opposition has now declared that it will focus its energies on the upcoming local body elections to be held in January. After months of anticipation, there is little indication of there being any peaceful transition of government in the near future.

“It will only be seen when it comes out in the open,” said Ghafoor, the Maldives United Opposition spokesperson, cryptically. “At this moment, everybody is marking time.”

A version of this article appeared on Maldives Independent.