The India Meteorological Department in Pune expects the southwest monsoon to hit the Nicobar islands in the next three to four days, reported the Economic Times. After the islands, it will take another few weeks for the rains to start in Kerala. The monsoon in the southern state is expected to hit ahead of time this year.

"Conditions are becoming favourable for the onset of the southwest monsoon over the southern Bay of Bengal, south Andaman sea and the Nicobar islands during next 3 to 4 days," said Sunita Devi, director (weather section) IMD, Pune. Generally, the monsoon hits Nicobar islands around May 15, and the Andaman islands around May 20.

"A cyclonic circulation extending up to 3.1 kilometres above mean sea level is lying over the southwest Bay of Bengal adjoining the equatorial Indian ocean, off the south Sri Lanka coast. Under its influence, a low pressure area is likely to form by Saturday. This will further become well-marked and subsequently become a depression during next 48 hours, around May 16th," she added. The IMD will issue a forecast about the monsoon onset date in Kerala on May 15.

Science and Technology Minister Harsh Vardhan had said that monsoon is expected to reach Kerala by late May or early June. In April, the Indian Meteorological Department predicted an above-normal to excess rainfall this monsoon. The Met department's qualitative forecast suggested India will get 106% of the Long Period Average, which is the average rain received during the monsoon between 1951 and 2000.