COP28 is this year’s crucial UN climate summit, the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The meeting will bring together the 198 signatories to the convention, which meet every year to discuss efforts to limit climate change and adapt to its effects. All UN member states plus the European Union are parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.
Since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, climate COPs have focused on its implementation and progress towards its aims of restricting global warming to “well below 2°C” and “pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels”.
When and where will it be held?
COP28 will be held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, from November 30 to December 12. The venue for the summit is Expo City Dubai, a huge site in the south of the city which was first built for the world’s fair Expo 2020.
Who is the COP28 president?
As announced in January, the COP28 president will be Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, who is both the UAE’s Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, and CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. This appointment has attracted criticism from environmental groups, with many seeing these roles as conflicting.
What will be discussed?
A major focus of discussions at COP28 will be the first Global Stocktake, which will conclude at the summit in Dubai. This two-year process has involved collecting information on parties’ climate actions and identifying gaps, thereby assessing the overall implementation of the Paris Agreement. COP28 will adopt a resolution on what the stocktake shows, and the direction it indicates for climate action. This is expected to include fresh pledges from governments.
The Global Stocktake report, released in September, concluded that the world is not on track to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. In early October, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat also released a synthesis report of the first Global Stocktake.
In July 2023, the COP28 president declared that the summit would focus on four “paradigm shifts”, concerning:
- fast-tracking the transition away from fossil fuels;
- transforming climate finance arrangements;
- the role of people and nature in climate action;
- and ensuring inclusivity at the summit, including for women, Indigenous peoples, local communities, youth and subnational actors.
How these aims can be achieved under a presidency that is heavily investing in fossil fuels and places severe restrictions on freedoms of speech and assembly remains a controversial sticking point.
One topic likely to attract attention at COP28 is progress on a fund for loss and damage, into which developed countries would pay to support developing countries in dealing with irrevocable losses caused by climate change. Agreement to establish such a fund was a hard-fought success for developing countries at last year’s COP27 summit in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, but its efficacy will depend on how it functions and how much money it can attract.
The agreement at COP27 was to establish the loss and damage fund within two years, so with this deadline still in the future, it may not be high on the agenda for all government negotiators. However, civil society groups and developing countries are likely to argue that progress on establishing the fund has been inadequate, and to call for greater urgency and redoubled efforts.
Who is COP28 controversial?
Many environmental groups and commentators have expressed concern that COP28 being hosted by the United Arab Emirates – a major fossil fuel producer – could result in weak outcomes, at a point when efforts to curb fossil fuel use need to be drastically increased if limiting warming to within 2C is to remain possible.
The appointment of Sultan Al Jaber as COP28 president, despite the fact he is the CEO of one of the world’s largest oil companies and one which continues to invest heavily in extraction of the fossil fuel, has come under particular criticism. Greenpeace said it was “deeply alarmed” by the appointment, stating, “There is no place for the fossil fuel industry in the global climate negotiations.” Christian Aid said that “the conflict of interest is obvious”, and that “having an oil baron running the global climate talks is like putting an anti-vax conspiracy theorist in charge of the response to Covid-19.”
Al Jaber, for his part, has pitched himself as a figure who can keep fossil fuel companies at the table in negotiating a “phase down” in oil and gas use – language that remains contentious, with many countries and campaigners pushing for a firmer deadline for the “phase out” of fossil fuels.
Civil society groups from around the world have also raised concerns over the UAE’s restrictive laws around protest and freedom of expression, especially given that large public demonstrations are typically held in the host city during climate COPs. In early October, the United Kingdom sought assurances from the UAE at the United Nations over how the summit host will ensure freedom of expression and assembly around COP28.
Outcomes for India and South Asia
India and other countries in South Asia, as well as developing countries the world over, will be looking principally for one thing at COP28: money, and lots of it.
The issue of financial assistance from those most responsible for climate change to support those facing the worst impacts and highest adaptation costs has dogged climate negotiations for almost two decades. Developed countries have consistently failed to match the pledge made in 2009 to provide USD 100 billion per year in climate finance to support climate action in developing countries – and even this is far below the sum poorer countries will need to decarbonise their economies and adapt to the impacts of climate change, now estimated to be in the trillions of dollars per year.
The Summit for a New Global Financing Pact, held in Paris in June 2023, brought to the fore issues such as developing countries paying more to service their debts than they receive as climate finance. Developing countries demanded a restructuring of the World Bank and its affiliates; more concessional and grant-based financing; and debt cancellations for the least developed countries. These issues are almost certain to come up again at COP28.
This article was first published on The Third Pole.