The recent emergence of the National Citizens Party in Bangladesh has sparked discussions on whether a student-led movement can transform itself into a major political force.

While the party has capitalised on the momentum of mass protests that led to the ouster of Sheikh Hasina’s government in August, its long-term viability remains in question. The experience of similar movements in India suggests that such parties often struggle to sustain their initial success and establish themselves as major political players.

To understand the challenges faced by the National Citizens Party, it is useful to look at similar political movements in India, such as the Janata Party, Asom Gana Parishad and Aam Aadmi Party. These parties were formed after major public uprisings and were initially successful, but they struggled to remain relevant in the long run.

The main reasons for their decline were the lack of a strong ideology, the absence of dedicated grassroots supporters and the difficulty of maintaining public enthusiasm once the immediate crisis had passed.

Internal conflicts

The Janata Party emerged in 1977 as a coalition of opposition forces united against Indira Gandhi’s Emergency rule. It won a historic victory and formed the first non-Congress government in India. However, its success was short-lived. The party was made up of people with very different political beliefs, ranging from socialists to Hindu nationalists. These differences led to internal conflicts, and within two years, the government collapsed.

By 1980, Congress was back in power. Without a strong foundation or a clear vision, the Janata Party eventually broke apart and became politically irrelevant.

A similar story played out in Assam with the Asom Gana Parishad, which was formed after a six-year-long protest against alleged illegal immigration. After signing the Assam Accord in 1985, the Asom Gana Parishad won elections and came to power.

However, it could not deliver on its promises, and internal divisions weakened the party. Over time, the Asom Gana Parishad became a minor player in Assamese politics and had to ally with the Bharatiya Janata Party to stay relevant.

The Aam Aadmi Party was born out of the 2011 anti-corruption movement led by Arvind Kejriwal. Unlike the Janata Party and the Asom Gana Parishad, the Aam Aadmi Party managed to remain in power in Delhi, winning three consecutive state elections. However, its attempts to expand nationally have not been very successful, except in Punjab.

It lost the last election in Delhi and even Kejriwal was not able to win a seat in the state assembly. The party lacks a strong organisational structure outside Delhi and relies heavily on Kejriwal’s leadership. This makes it vulnerable to both internal disagreements and political attacks from stronger, well-established parties.

Key challenges

The experiences of these Indian parties highlight key challenges that the National Citizens Party is likely to face in Bangladesh. One major challenge is the lack of a clear ideology. A political party needs a strong vision that resonates with a broad section of society. So far, the National Citizens Party is mainly seen as an anti-incumbent party, but that alone is not enough to sustain long-term support. Without clear policies and a strong message, the party could struggle to maintain its relevance.

Another problem is the absence of a charismatic leader. In Bangladesh, politics has been dominated by strong figures like Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Ziaur Rahman, and Sheikh Hasina. The National Citizens Party, on the other hand, has opted for a shared leadership model, which makes it harder to build public enthusiasm.

Even in India, movements like the Janata Party, Asom Gana Parishad and Aam Aadmi Party initially gained popularity due to leaders like Jayaprakash Narayan, Prafulla Kumar Mahanta, and Arvind Kejriwal. However, even they struggled to keep their parties united over time. Without a leader who can inspire and unite people, the National Citizens Party may find it difficult to hold onto its support base.

Another major hurdle is the lack of grassroots organisation. In Bangladesh, successful political parties have strong networks that reach even the most remote villages. The Awami League and Bangladesh Nationalist Party, for example, have decades of experience in building local support.

The National Citizens Party, as a student-led movement, is mostly focused on urban areas and does not have the same level of grassroots presence. This is similar to the struggles faced by the Aam Aadmi Party in India, where its influence remained largely limited to cities like Delhi.

A further challenge is that the National Citizens Party relies too much on temporary mass mobilisation. Mass movements can be powerful enough to bring down governments, but they do not necessarily lead to lasting political success. Both the Janata Party and Asom Gana Parishad initially gained power through popular uprisings, but they struggled to govern effectively.

If the National Citizens Part does not have a long-term strategy and fails to keep the public engaged, it risks fading away once the excitement of its initial success wears off.

Another significant obstacle is the strong influence of dynastic politics in Bangladesh. The major parties, such as the Awami League and Bangladesh Nationalist Party, are built around powerful family legacies. In such a political culture, it is difficult for new parties to gain legitimacy. While the fall of Sheikh Hasina has created an opportunity for fresh leadership, the deeply rooted political structures will not change overnight.

Ambitious dreams

Despite these challenges, the National Citizens Party does have some opportunities to grow. Over the past 16 years, nearly 40 million new voters have entered the rolls, of a total of 124 million voters. Many of them are frustrated with the lack of democratic participation and could be looking for an alternative.

If the National Citizens Party can successfully connect with these voters and organise them into a dedicated support base, it may be able to establish itself as a credible political force. However, simply being against the old system is not enough. The party needs a clear plan, strong grassroots organisation, and effective leadership to succeed.

The National Citizens Part has called for a “second republic,” suggesting that it wants to bring major political reforms. However, history has shown that revolutions require institutional support and careful planning to succeed. Without control over key institutions such as the military, judiciary, and bureaucracy, the National Citizens Party’s goals may remain ambitious dreams rather than practical policies.

Political history has seen many movements fade away after their initial success. The National Citizens Party must act quickly to avoid the same fate.

Ashok Swain is a professor of peace and conflict research at Uppsala University, Sweden.