On May 10, following four days of military clashes, United States President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between India and Pakistan. There was no mention of Kashmir, though the US secretary of state did offer support in “initiating constructive talks” between the two countries on a “broad set of issues”.
A day later, however, Trump offered his help to the two countries to find a solution to the Kashmir dispute.
Trump’s announcement did not go down well with New Delhi, since it is India’s long-standing position that it is a bilateral matter. Moreover, the Narendra Modi government’s position, after it scrapped Jammu and Kashmir’s special status and downsized it into a union territory in August 2019, is that there is no Kashmir dispute. The prospect of US intervention was refuted by the Ministry of External Affairs.
But Kashmir’s response to Trump’s offer to mediate has been missing from the debate so far.
Neither Kashmir’s mainstream politicians nor separatist leaders have made their stand clear on Trump’s offer.
Political observers said that Trump’s offer of intervention has been viewed as a “positive development” in Kashmir. “Any attempt, whether at local or international level, to resolve the Kashmir dispute is generally welcomed in Kashmir,” said a political science scholar, who requested anonymity. “Unfortunately, given the unwritten restrictions on the modes of expression [in Kashmir], the voices of people may not be heard.”
The four-day military confrontation between the two nuclear-armed neighbours has again established Kashmir as a flashpoint in the subcontinent, the observers said. Since August 2019, when the Narendra Modi government scrapped Article 370 and cracked down on separatism, it had disappeared from international headlines.
However, there is scepticism in Kashmir if Trump’s announcements will change anything on the ground. Some observers said New Delhi is unlikely to change its muscular and security-centric approach towards the region.
“It actually depends a lot on how far the United States is ready to [put] pressure on New Delhi to start discussing the Kashmir issue with Pakistan,” a Srinagar-based political analyst, who wanted to remain anonymous, told Scroll. “At the moment, that looks unlikely. The US may be trying to corner Modi for its own economic or trade interests rather than its concern for Kashmir.”
On May 15, during a business event in Qatar, US president Donald Trump said that he told tech giant Apple’s CEO Tim Cook that he does not want him to make his phones in India. Apple plans to produce around 25% of global iPhones in India in the next few years.
Trump and Kashmir
As a global superpower, American intervention in convincing the two nuclear-armed neighbours to cease hostilities was expected. It was, however, Trump’s mention of the Kashmir dispute that came as a surprise to many.
The last time Trump had talked about Kashmir was during a press conference in New Delhi during his visit to India in February, 2020.
His recent offer of mediation was the first such statement in his second tenure as the president of the United States.
India’s response to Trump’s offer was countered by the Ministry of External Affairs on May 13.
“As you are aware, we have a long-standing national position that any issues pertaining to the Union territory of Jammu and Kashmir have to be addressed by India and Pakistan bilaterally,” Randhir Jaiswal, official spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs said during a press briefing. “That stated policy has not changed. As you are aware, the outstanding matter is the vacation of illegally occupied Indian Territory by Pakistan.”
Centre unlikely to soft-pedal
Since August, 2019, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led central government has completely outlawed separatism in the region.
The “zero tolerance policy against terrorism” has not only dealt a blow to local militancy, it has also translated into an exhaustive crackdown against its support system and activists.
Hurriyat, the political face of separatism in Jammu and Kashmir that has engaged with New Delhi in the past over Kashmir, has been reduced to just a name.
In such a situation, Trump’s mention of Kashmir may have brought international limelight back on the disputed region but it’s unlikely to trigger an outreach from the Centre towards Kashmir.
“The decision to permit foreign intervention rests with the Indian government, and it is my belief that they are unlikely to embrace such involvement,” said the Srinagar-based political analyst.
Besides, engaging with the Kashmir issue may need a lot of U-turns on the part of the Modi government. “Modi cannot look weak and start talking to the same people his government jailed for supporting terrorism and fomenting separatism in Kashmir,” said the political analyst. “Even if Delhi wants to talk to separatists, it has to first release them.”
Risk of domestic backlash
The domestic backlash in mainland India for engaging on the Kashmir issue will also be weighing heavily on the mind of the Bharatiya Janata Party. “BJP has won elections on ‘integrating’ Kashmir with the rest of India after removing Article 370. Talking on Kashmir with Pakistan along with the intervention of a third-party will be a disaster for it electorally,” the Srinagar-based political analyst added.
A second scholar of political science in Kashmir, who also requested not to be identified, concurred. “The current government is unlikely to permit any foreign intervention, whether direct or indirect, concerning Kashmir, primarily due to domestic considerations,” he explained.
The main opposition party Congress has already criticised Modi for internationalising the Kashmir issue. “Kashmir is a bilateral issue and the attempt to internationalise it, I feel, is not proper,” Sachin Pilot, the Congress’s general secretary said on May 11. “In 1994, the Parliament had passed a unanimous resolution to take back PoK. It is time to repeat it.”
The Congress has also demanded the Modi government to clearly state that “it [Kashmir] is a bilateral issue and no country, including America, should have space to intervene.”
Modi has, so far, not directly mentioned the United States in his reaction against the third-party intervention.
The political leadership in Kashmir has taken a less aggresive view of the emerging political situation post the India-Pakistan ceasefire. “The Modi government should not be politically penalised for exploring peaceful means,” Mehbooba Mufti, former Jammu and Kashmir chief minister and president of Peoples Democratic Party, said on May 13. “This is a time for bipartisan statesmanship not division. The opposition must rise above politics and support genuine efforts for peace and stability.
Mufti also appealed to the opposition parties to avoid “knee-jerk criticism” and “build a national consensus around a peace process that safeguards national interests.” “Leaders like Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Dr. Manmohan Singh proved that cross-border engagement is possible even in tense times without compromising security or sovereignty,” she added.
Beyond coercive measures
The four-day military confrontation between India and Pakistan from May 7 to 10 was sparked by the deadly terrorist attack on tourists in south Kashmir’s Pahalgam.
“The Pahalgam attack showed that even though separatism and militancy in Kashmir are on the backfoot, a single incident abetted by Pakistan is enough to underline how good things in Kashmir really are,” a local businessman in Srinagar city said.
Military experts have long argued that Pakistan can sustain a low-intensity insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir, and India needs to counter it both through military as well as political means.
During an interview with The Indian Express recently, former Northern Army commander Lieutenant General DS Hooda (Retd) said there is more to the Pahalgam attack than “merely looking at the internal security situation.”
“I am quite firm in my belief on the need for greater outreach to the local public, greater outreach to the local political parties,” Hooda said. “We often say these are parties with soft separatist tendencies, which maybe or may not be true, but the fact is that they command popular support. Therefore, we need to take them on board.”
Political analysts say there is a probability that New Delhi might engage with Kashmir but on its own terms. “There’s no question of restoring pre-August 2019 status,” said the political science scholar. “Yes, there is a certain degree of probability that they will grant statehood to J&K soon.”
He also hoped that recent political and military developments “may compel the Union government to consider strategies beyond coercive measures in its engagement with Pakistan and Kashmiris.”
