Bhutan’s geographical position makes it a key strategic asset, being landlocked between China’s Tibet Autonomous Region to the north and Indian states of Sikkim, West Bengal, Assam and Arunachal Pradesh to the west and south. Though Bhutan and China do not have established official diplomatic ties, they do maintain political and people-to-people contacts, and a degree of economic cooperation.
Indian official circles are aware of Chinese attempts to gain strategic leverage over India by deepening ties with Bhutan, and this will be kept in mind during the prime minster’s visit.
China shares a 470-km border with Bhutan to the north and has held 21 rounds of essentially fruitless boundary talks with China to resolve the boundary dispute. In the boundary-resolution dialogues between Thimphu and Beijing, the Chinese appear particularly focused on the Doklam Plateau (measuring 270 sq. km). The Doklam Plateau is extremely close to the vital Chumbi Valley area and the Siliguri Corridor, the lifeline that connects India’s Northeast to the rest of the country. By making this plateau a key strategic pivot in the India-Bhutan-China equation, Beijing is working towards expanding its strategic advantage in the Chumbi Valley as well as closing in on access to the Siliguri Corridor, which lies 500 km from the Chumbi Valley.
New ambassador
This is why the recent announcement of Gautam Bambawale as India’s next Ambassador to Bhutan comes as a very interesting development. Bambawale currently serves as Joint Secretary, East Asia, in the Ministry of External Affairs, and was the lead negotiator of the India-China Border Defence Cooperation agreement, signed in October 2013 by Manmohan Singh and Chinese premier Li Keqiang. Bambawale will be adept at assessing the critical issues, especially those pertaining to boundary resolution.
However, Modi's visit to Thimpu isn't only an attempt to hold the Chinese in check. India has extensive historical and cultural ties with Bhutan, and its support is key to the tiny state’s economic development. The Modi government proposes to strengthen the existing bilateral free-trade regime and undertake measures to boost mutual trade.
India will provide Bhutan with as assistance package of Rs 4,500 crore to implement its 11th five-year plan, which runs from 2013 to 2018. India’s cooperation and investment in the neighbouring state cover infrastructure, hydropower, information and communication technology, health, agriculture (especially irrigation channels) and human resource development.
Hydel plants
One important avenue is New Delhi’s hydropower project cooperation with Bhutan, which generates export revenues for the smaller nation and provides clean and low-cost electricity to India. It is likely that the Modi government will accord the highest priority to this sector, given that three hydroelectric projects totalling 1416 MW are currently operational, and three more projects, currently under construction, are scheduled to be commissioned by 2017 or 2018. Yet it is also a matter of concern that many power projects in Bhutan have overrun their schedules.
Despite this, India has signed a framework agreement in April on four more joint-venture-model hydroelectric projects, totalling 2120 MW. Modi is expected to push for rapid commencement of pre-construction activities of the 600 MW Kholongchu hydroelectric project, as a joint venture model between Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam and Druk Green Power Corporation.
Dr. Monika Chansoria is a Senior Fellow and Head of the China-study Programme at the Centre for Land Warfare Studies, New Delhi