Rarely have previous by-elections been watched as keenly as the polls in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. While Bihar cast its votes for ten assembly seats on Thursday, Uttar Pradesh will choose candidates for 11 assembly seats and one Lok Sabha constituency on September 13.
These results will not have any bearing on the incumbent governments in either state. These governments are safe, no matter which party or front wins. Yet these elections are significant because they will offer the opportunity to understand what the political churning in the two states since May has resulted in.
Political forces in UP and Bihar have been in flux ever since the sudden resurgence of the Bharatiya Janata Party in the Lok Sabha elections in April and May.
Political churning
For more than two decades, the two states had been dominated by regional parties. In Bihar, Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal and Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal-United have held sway. In UP, Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party and Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party have been dominant. The BJP and the Congress had been marginal forces in the Hindi belt. But the situation was transformed when the BJP and its allies won 31 out of 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar and 73 out of 80 in Uttar Pradesh in the general elections.
The political churning has manifested itself in different forms in each state. In Bihar, the crisis together brought sworn enemies – Lalu Prasad of Rashtriya Janata Dal and Nitish Kumar of Janata Dal-United. Along with the Congress, they formed a grand secular front to fight against the BJP-led alliance. Of the ten seats for which bypolls were held in the state, the RJD and the JD-U are contesting four each and Congress two. On the opposite side, while the BJP is contesting nine seats, its ally Lok Janshakti Party one.
It is widely believed that if the BJP keeps up its winning spree in Bihar, the grand secular alliance could just crumble. The parties have buried their egos and closed ranks to confront the challenge posed by the BJP, but their resolve could wilt in the face of defeat. On the other hand, if the secular mahajot does well, it could be encouraged enough to consider further consolidation for assembly elections in the last quarter of 2015. Some believe it could even have a ripple effect in the neighbouring states of Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand.
Personally for Nitish Kumar, the stakes in these by-elections are very high. The path to the grand alliance was paved by his decision to resign as Bihar's chief minister after his party’s debacle in the Lok Sabha elections. If the alliance wins, his stature as a statesman would grow immensely, not just in the state but outside, too. A loss could weaken his status beyond redemption.
UP situation
In Uttar Pradesh, where there is no such secular alliance to take on the BJP, the September 13 by-elections are no less significant. Already, the state seems to have reverted to the era when communal violence and electoral politics were intrinsically linked. Many are disquieted by the manner in which the politics of anxiety has made a comeback after being pushed to the margins in mid-1990s.
Western UP experienced a string of communal outbursts in the concluding months of 2013. The communal divide that followed these riots is believed to have benefitted the BJP enormously in the Lok Sabha elections. Even after the general elections, attempts to redraw the red lines that had blurred over the last two decades have continued. It is hardly a coincidence that the areas that have witnessed communal conflagrations – for example, Moradabad and Saharanpur – are seats where by-elections are due.
Since Mayawati has already declared that her party will not field candidates in these by-elections and since the Congress remains totally marginalised in state politics, this will be a straight fight between the Samajwadi Party and the BJP. A victory for the BJP could embolden the fringe elements in the Sangh Parivar in the state and complicate the situation even further. Political observers fear that the outcome of the September 13 by-elections could create the political need to keep the communal cauldron boiling until the assembly elections, due in early 2017.
Political observers are keeping an especially close eye on the voting patterns of the BSP’s core constituency – the Dalits. It is widely being speculated – and not without reason – that in certain areas of the state, Dalits have shown the inclination to shift to the BJP. The forthcoming by-elections would be the acid test for Mayawati’s core constituency, too.
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These results will not have any bearing on the incumbent governments in either state. These governments are safe, no matter which party or front wins. Yet these elections are significant because they will offer the opportunity to understand what the political churning in the two states since May has resulted in.
Political forces in UP and Bihar have been in flux ever since the sudden resurgence of the Bharatiya Janata Party in the Lok Sabha elections in April and May.
Political churning
For more than two decades, the two states had been dominated by regional parties. In Bihar, Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal and Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal-United have held sway. In UP, Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party and Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party have been dominant. The BJP and the Congress had been marginal forces in the Hindi belt. But the situation was transformed when the BJP and its allies won 31 out of 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar and 73 out of 80 in Uttar Pradesh in the general elections.
The political churning has manifested itself in different forms in each state. In Bihar, the crisis together brought sworn enemies – Lalu Prasad of Rashtriya Janata Dal and Nitish Kumar of Janata Dal-United. Along with the Congress, they formed a grand secular front to fight against the BJP-led alliance. Of the ten seats for which bypolls were held in the state, the RJD and the JD-U are contesting four each and Congress two. On the opposite side, while the BJP is contesting nine seats, its ally Lok Janshakti Party one.
It is widely believed that if the BJP keeps up its winning spree in Bihar, the grand secular alliance could just crumble. The parties have buried their egos and closed ranks to confront the challenge posed by the BJP, but their resolve could wilt in the face of defeat. On the other hand, if the secular mahajot does well, it could be encouraged enough to consider further consolidation for assembly elections in the last quarter of 2015. Some believe it could even have a ripple effect in the neighbouring states of Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand.
Personally for Nitish Kumar, the stakes in these by-elections are very high. The path to the grand alliance was paved by his decision to resign as Bihar's chief minister after his party’s debacle in the Lok Sabha elections. If the alliance wins, his stature as a statesman would grow immensely, not just in the state but outside, too. A loss could weaken his status beyond redemption.
UP situation
In Uttar Pradesh, where there is no such secular alliance to take on the BJP, the September 13 by-elections are no less significant. Already, the state seems to have reverted to the era when communal violence and electoral politics were intrinsically linked. Many are disquieted by the manner in which the politics of anxiety has made a comeback after being pushed to the margins in mid-1990s.
Western UP experienced a string of communal outbursts in the concluding months of 2013. The communal divide that followed these riots is believed to have benefitted the BJP enormously in the Lok Sabha elections. Even after the general elections, attempts to redraw the red lines that had blurred over the last two decades have continued. It is hardly a coincidence that the areas that have witnessed communal conflagrations – for example, Moradabad and Saharanpur – are seats where by-elections are due.
Since Mayawati has already declared that her party will not field candidates in these by-elections and since the Congress remains totally marginalised in state politics, this will be a straight fight between the Samajwadi Party and the BJP. A victory for the BJP could embolden the fringe elements in the Sangh Parivar in the state and complicate the situation even further. Political observers fear that the outcome of the September 13 by-elections could create the political need to keep the communal cauldron boiling until the assembly elections, due in early 2017.
Political observers are keeping an especially close eye on the voting patterns of the BSP’s core constituency – the Dalits. It is widely being speculated – and not without reason – that in certain areas of the state, Dalits have shown the inclination to shift to the BJP. The forthcoming by-elections would be the acid test for Mayawati’s core constituency, too.