Asia could experience a new game of geo-political one-upmanship with the signing of the Tokyo Declaration for India-Japan Special Strategic and Global Partnership during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Japan earlier this week. Modi’s decision to make Japan his first bilateral visit outside the Indian subcontinent, following his move to invite Tibetan Prime Minister in-exile Lobsang Sangay for his swearing-in ceremony, makes it clear that India is not likely to allow China to assert its primacy in Asia.
But given that both India and Japan have strong economic ties with China, this game of one-upmanship will proceed only in nods and winks. The current players in Beijing, New Delhi and Tokyo are too mature to indulge in brinkmanship. That fact that neither Japan nor India are in a position to take an overtly anti-China position was obvious from their public utterances. Modi’s statements and the Tokyo Declaration make only veiled references to China.
“We have to choose if we wish to pursue the course of development or expansionism,” Modi told top business leaders of India and Japan. “It is the idea of 18th century to engage in encroachments and entering seas of others.” More than five decades of Sino-India boundary disputes and an aggressive Chinese posture vis-à-vis Japan over the ownership of Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea have brought India and Japan to one side of the table. China’s relations with other neighbours like Vietnam and the Philippines are also marked by disputes over territorial sovereignty.
Not another dreary statement
Prima facie, the Tokyo Declaration looks like any other dreary bilateral joint statement. But a closer reading reveals several references to China. The pact (and also the statements of Narendra Modi) recognises India and Japan as the two largest and oldest democracies in Asia, stating that they “share an abiding commitment to peace and stability, international rule of law and open global trade regime”. This juxtaposition of democratic values with appreciation of international rule of law puts China into a corner. The declaration emphasises maritime cooperation between India and Japan. This also fits in the broader narrative of not allowing China free claims to ownership of strategic islands and trade routes.
The Tokyo Declaration seeks to pre-empt any unilateral Chinese adventurism by affirming “the shared commitment to maritime security, freedom of navigation and overflight, civil aviation safety, unimpeded lawful commerce, and peaceful settlement of disputes in accordance with international law”.
The declaration also called for a comprehensive reform of the United Nations Security Council. It is widely known that China and Russia are hesitant to share their privileged positions in international order with the G-4 nations of India, Japan, Brazil and Germany. The declaration sets a deadline of 2015 for a concrete outcome in this regard. It indicates that Narendra Modi is likely to pursue this matter with Chinese President Xi Jinping on his arrival to India and his own visit to United States – both events scheduled in the month of September.
China is guarded
The Chinese establishment has been guarded in its response to all the camouflaged references to itself. It is also wary of inviting a grand alliance of Japan, India, Vietnam, and the Philippines backed by Australia and US and forged primarily on security apprehensions emanating from China. It is possible that China could begin using its economic and strategic levers to play one country of this lot against another. If the editorial in the state-run Chinese newspaper Global Times is anything to go by, this game has already begun. The editorial blames “Tokyo’s anxiety of facing a rising China” for “Abe’s harangue” aimed at building a counter axis to China. The increasing intimacy between New Delhi and Tokyo will at most bring “psychological comfort” to the two countries, Global Times said.
The editorial also tried to show India its place by noting that China’s GDP is five times that of India. It said that India has to begin by first assuming an undisputed leadership of South Asia.
Beijing has good reason to be dismayed. India’s passive “Look East” policy has been transformed into a more active “Act East” plan, as is obvious from foreign minister Sushma Swaraj’s recent trip to Vietnam. China will have to reconcile itself to a bipolar Asia before it can create a bipolar globe. In short, for few years at least, the playground will be Asia and the games have begun.
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But given that both India and Japan have strong economic ties with China, this game of one-upmanship will proceed only in nods and winks. The current players in Beijing, New Delhi and Tokyo are too mature to indulge in brinkmanship. That fact that neither Japan nor India are in a position to take an overtly anti-China position was obvious from their public utterances. Modi’s statements and the Tokyo Declaration make only veiled references to China.
“We have to choose if we wish to pursue the course of development or expansionism,” Modi told top business leaders of India and Japan. “It is the idea of 18th century to engage in encroachments and entering seas of others.” More than five decades of Sino-India boundary disputes and an aggressive Chinese posture vis-à-vis Japan over the ownership of Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea have brought India and Japan to one side of the table. China’s relations with other neighbours like Vietnam and the Philippines are also marked by disputes over territorial sovereignty.
Not another dreary statement
Prima facie, the Tokyo Declaration looks like any other dreary bilateral joint statement. But a closer reading reveals several references to China. The pact (and also the statements of Narendra Modi) recognises India and Japan as the two largest and oldest democracies in Asia, stating that they “share an abiding commitment to peace and stability, international rule of law and open global trade regime”. This juxtaposition of democratic values with appreciation of international rule of law puts China into a corner. The declaration emphasises maritime cooperation between India and Japan. This also fits in the broader narrative of not allowing China free claims to ownership of strategic islands and trade routes.
The Tokyo Declaration seeks to pre-empt any unilateral Chinese adventurism by affirming “the shared commitment to maritime security, freedom of navigation and overflight, civil aviation safety, unimpeded lawful commerce, and peaceful settlement of disputes in accordance with international law”.
The declaration also called for a comprehensive reform of the United Nations Security Council. It is widely known that China and Russia are hesitant to share their privileged positions in international order with the G-4 nations of India, Japan, Brazil and Germany. The declaration sets a deadline of 2015 for a concrete outcome in this regard. It indicates that Narendra Modi is likely to pursue this matter with Chinese President Xi Jinping on his arrival to India and his own visit to United States – both events scheduled in the month of September.
China is guarded
The Chinese establishment has been guarded in its response to all the camouflaged references to itself. It is also wary of inviting a grand alliance of Japan, India, Vietnam, and the Philippines backed by Australia and US and forged primarily on security apprehensions emanating from China. It is possible that China could begin using its economic and strategic levers to play one country of this lot against another. If the editorial in the state-run Chinese newspaper Global Times is anything to go by, this game has already begun. The editorial blames “Tokyo’s anxiety of facing a rising China” for “Abe’s harangue” aimed at building a counter axis to China. The increasing intimacy between New Delhi and Tokyo will at most bring “psychological comfort” to the two countries, Global Times said.
The editorial also tried to show India its place by noting that China’s GDP is five times that of India. It said that India has to begin by first assuming an undisputed leadership of South Asia.
Beijing has good reason to be dismayed. India’s passive “Look East” policy has been transformed into a more active “Act East” plan, as is obvious from foreign minister Sushma Swaraj’s recent trip to Vietnam. China will have to reconcile itself to a bipolar Asia before it can create a bipolar globe. In short, for few years at least, the playground will be Asia and the games have begun.
