China is both a challenge and an opportunity for India. As Prime Minister Narendra Modi steps off the Air India flight in Xian on Thursday for a three-day visit to China, he will have to strike an impeccable balance, seizing the opportunities and somehow confronting the challenges.
As Srinath Raghavan, an analyst at the New Delhi-based Centre for Policy Research, puts it: “Yes, China is a challenge. Good diplomacy is how to turn a challenge into an opportunity.”
There has been much talk about Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping being two of the strongest leaders China and India have had in long. Modi came to power with an overwhelming majority. Xi Jinping is one of the most powerful Chinese presidents since Mao Zedong, not just in control of the government but also the Communist party and the country’s powerful military. Together, the two can make tangible difference and turn around a relation that has nearly always been sputtering.
But it is unlikely that this Modi visit alone will provide those major breakthroughs.
Nevertheless, there will be bonhomie on the jaunt, with focus on the historical and cultural links between the two ancient civilisations. Modi will be the first world leader to be hosted in Xi’s home province of Shaanxi. This is in gracious acknowledgment of Modi hosting Xi in Gujarat during his trip to India last September. In Shaanxi, Modi will visit a Xian pagoda connected to Xuanzang, the monk who brought Buddhist sutras to China from India thousands of years ago.
The atmospherics will play out much as they did during Xi’s trip to Gujarat. Images of the walk along the Sabarmati and the Chinese president and his wife’s photographs on a swing had helped set a friendly tone on that visit. The Chinese will provide a similar backdrop for the first leg of Modi’s visit. The camaraderie between the two strongmen of Asia will no doubt be reinforced.
In the final assessment, though, it will be the opportunities and challenges that will count.
Economic growth
No one is more aware of the economic opportunity China provides than Narendra Modi, who has been to the country four times as Gujarat chief minister. “He has been there, seen that,” said Alka Acharya, director of the Institute of Chinese Studies. “As a smart Gujarati, with a nose for business, he knows exactly what China has to offer.”
Much of the focus of the trip will therefore be economic. Turning India into a manufacturing hub, the Make in India vision, is an idea that Modi borrowed from China. For it to become a reality India needs foreign direct investment and most developed nations, due to the economic slowdown, do not have enough funds for this. China is about the only country that has the largest reserve of surplus funds and can bankroll major infrastructure projects, urgently needed in India. Modi is scheduled to hold trade talks with Premier Li Keqiang in Beijing on May 16 and meet Chinese business leaders in Shanghai the next day.
When he was in India nine months ago, Xi had announced $20 billion investment over the next five years (for India, which needs $1 trillion in infrastructure investment, this is peanuts). There will be deals signed for another $10 billion during Modi’s visit. India is keen on Chinese investments in the railways. High-speed bullet trains from Delhi to Chennai and Delhi to Agra are on the cards, as are other projects. Though the two-way trade between India and China is as much as $70 billion, the trade deficit is calculated to reach $45 billion, in China’s favour, in the financial year 2014-15.
“There are many areas where India is globally competitive but we have not been able to be successful in the Chinese market,” foreign secretary S Jaishankar said at a news conference before the visit. India wants greater access to the Chinese market for its pharmaceutical and Information Technology industry. Lowering tariff barriers in these two sectors would bring down the trade deficit. So far, though, nothing has been done despite promises.
Border Dispute and Security
Indians are by nature suspicious of China. The older generation carries the bitter historical baggage of the 1962 border fiasco, when the People’s Liberation Army rolled into Arunachal Pradesh and routed an unprepared Indian Army. Just as inexplicably the PLA troops withdrew. That episode is seared in India’s collective memory. “Looking at India’s security, I believe, China is the only country that can pose a security threat to India,” said former foreign secretary Lalit Mansingh.
India’s management of its complex ties with China remains a major foreign policy challenge for any government in Delhi. This is why the prime minister’s three-day visit to China is important.
The border dispute casts a long shadow on the bilateral relations. Fifteen rounds of talks between Special Representatives, preceded by 15 more between foreign secretaries, and 10 years of official-level consultations have not brought the two sides any closer to a settlement.
China claims the entire state of Arunachal Pradesh, calling it South Tibet. In the last few years China has demanded the Buddhist monastery town of Tawang, which India will never give up. When Xi was in India, Modi tried to get China to clarify the Line of Actual Control, which is loosely regarded as a provisional boundary between the two countries. China has not got back on this.
During Xi’s September visit, there was an intrusion by the PLA into Ladakh’s Chumar sector, triggering tensions on the largely peaceful India-China border. A few confidence building measurers could be announced during Modi’s trip to deal with the simmering issue, but there is a feeling among many in the strategic community that China wants the problem to fester on.
Propping up Pakistan
The other worry for India is China’s constant bid to contain India by propping up its rival Pakistan. “China has helped Pakistan with military hardware, missile technology and nuclear knowhow,” said former Indian diplomat Arundhuti Ghosh. “This is a matter of continuing concern for India.”
Modi will raise the issue of Chinese investments in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, announced during Xi’s recent visit to Pakistan, which India believes legitimises Pakistan’s occupation of India’s territory. The day after Xi left for home from Pakistan, New Delhi had protested to the Chinese both here and in Beijing.
Regional Chessboard
While Modi is upbeat about relations with China and is hoping to expand relations to the cultural and entertainment sector, he is also aware of the threat the dragon poses. To counter this, the prime minister has already significantly upgraded India’s ties with the US, Japan and Australia, all nations that are concerned about China’s growing economic and military clout.
In a joint statement issued after President Barak Obama’s visit to New Delhi, India openly spoke about “safeguarding maritime security and ensuring freedom of navigation in the South China Sea”. This did not go down well with China, which believes the US is trying to contain its growth in Asia, but China baiters in the Indian establishment were delighted. Modi also made it apparent during his visit to Japan last year that he is on the same page as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Asian security.
China realises that India is being wooed by Japan, US and Western nations that are wary of its rising clout. Keeping that in mind, Beijing and Xi Jinping will like to ensure that India does not go totally into the US orbit. Besides, India provides a huge untapped market for China.
India too wants to be cautious. Modi recently dropped Japan from the Malabar naval exercises conducted between India and the US in October to please the Chinese. Does this mean that, like the United Progressive Alliance government before him, Modi too will not try to ruffle China’s feathers and keep a wary eye on Beijing’s sensibilities? Only time will tell.
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As Srinath Raghavan, an analyst at the New Delhi-based Centre for Policy Research, puts it: “Yes, China is a challenge. Good diplomacy is how to turn a challenge into an opportunity.”
There has been much talk about Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping being two of the strongest leaders China and India have had in long. Modi came to power with an overwhelming majority. Xi Jinping is one of the most powerful Chinese presidents since Mao Zedong, not just in control of the government but also the Communist party and the country’s powerful military. Together, the two can make tangible difference and turn around a relation that has nearly always been sputtering.
But it is unlikely that this Modi visit alone will provide those major breakthroughs.
Nevertheless, there will be bonhomie on the jaunt, with focus on the historical and cultural links between the two ancient civilisations. Modi will be the first world leader to be hosted in Xi’s home province of Shaanxi. This is in gracious acknowledgment of Modi hosting Xi in Gujarat during his trip to India last September. In Shaanxi, Modi will visit a Xian pagoda connected to Xuanzang, the monk who brought Buddhist sutras to China from India thousands of years ago.
The atmospherics will play out much as they did during Xi’s trip to Gujarat. Images of the walk along the Sabarmati and the Chinese president and his wife’s photographs on a swing had helped set a friendly tone on that visit. The Chinese will provide a similar backdrop for the first leg of Modi’s visit. The camaraderie between the two strongmen of Asia will no doubt be reinforced.
In the final assessment, though, it will be the opportunities and challenges that will count.
Economic growth
No one is more aware of the economic opportunity China provides than Narendra Modi, who has been to the country four times as Gujarat chief minister. “He has been there, seen that,” said Alka Acharya, director of the Institute of Chinese Studies. “As a smart Gujarati, with a nose for business, he knows exactly what China has to offer.”
Much of the focus of the trip will therefore be economic. Turning India into a manufacturing hub, the Make in India vision, is an idea that Modi borrowed from China. For it to become a reality India needs foreign direct investment and most developed nations, due to the economic slowdown, do not have enough funds for this. China is about the only country that has the largest reserve of surplus funds and can bankroll major infrastructure projects, urgently needed in India. Modi is scheduled to hold trade talks with Premier Li Keqiang in Beijing on May 16 and meet Chinese business leaders in Shanghai the next day.
When he was in India nine months ago, Xi had announced $20 billion investment over the next five years (for India, which needs $1 trillion in infrastructure investment, this is peanuts). There will be deals signed for another $10 billion during Modi’s visit. India is keen on Chinese investments in the railways. High-speed bullet trains from Delhi to Chennai and Delhi to Agra are on the cards, as are other projects. Though the two-way trade between India and China is as much as $70 billion, the trade deficit is calculated to reach $45 billion, in China’s favour, in the financial year 2014-15.
“There are many areas where India is globally competitive but we have not been able to be successful in the Chinese market,” foreign secretary S Jaishankar said at a news conference before the visit. India wants greater access to the Chinese market for its pharmaceutical and Information Technology industry. Lowering tariff barriers in these two sectors would bring down the trade deficit. So far, though, nothing has been done despite promises.
Border Dispute and Security
Indians are by nature suspicious of China. The older generation carries the bitter historical baggage of the 1962 border fiasco, when the People’s Liberation Army rolled into Arunachal Pradesh and routed an unprepared Indian Army. Just as inexplicably the PLA troops withdrew. That episode is seared in India’s collective memory. “Looking at India’s security, I believe, China is the only country that can pose a security threat to India,” said former foreign secretary Lalit Mansingh.
India’s management of its complex ties with China remains a major foreign policy challenge for any government in Delhi. This is why the prime minister’s three-day visit to China is important.
The border dispute casts a long shadow on the bilateral relations. Fifteen rounds of talks between Special Representatives, preceded by 15 more between foreign secretaries, and 10 years of official-level consultations have not brought the two sides any closer to a settlement.
China claims the entire state of Arunachal Pradesh, calling it South Tibet. In the last few years China has demanded the Buddhist monastery town of Tawang, which India will never give up. When Xi was in India, Modi tried to get China to clarify the Line of Actual Control, which is loosely regarded as a provisional boundary between the two countries. China has not got back on this.
During Xi’s September visit, there was an intrusion by the PLA into Ladakh’s Chumar sector, triggering tensions on the largely peaceful India-China border. A few confidence building measurers could be announced during Modi’s trip to deal with the simmering issue, but there is a feeling among many in the strategic community that China wants the problem to fester on.
Propping up Pakistan
The other worry for India is China’s constant bid to contain India by propping up its rival Pakistan. “China has helped Pakistan with military hardware, missile technology and nuclear knowhow,” said former Indian diplomat Arundhuti Ghosh. “This is a matter of continuing concern for India.”
Modi will raise the issue of Chinese investments in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, announced during Xi’s recent visit to Pakistan, which India believes legitimises Pakistan’s occupation of India’s territory. The day after Xi left for home from Pakistan, New Delhi had protested to the Chinese both here and in Beijing.
Regional Chessboard
While Modi is upbeat about relations with China and is hoping to expand relations to the cultural and entertainment sector, he is also aware of the threat the dragon poses. To counter this, the prime minister has already significantly upgraded India’s ties with the US, Japan and Australia, all nations that are concerned about China’s growing economic and military clout.
In a joint statement issued after President Barak Obama’s visit to New Delhi, India openly spoke about “safeguarding maritime security and ensuring freedom of navigation in the South China Sea”. This did not go down well with China, which believes the US is trying to contain its growth in Asia, but China baiters in the Indian establishment were delighted. Modi also made it apparent during his visit to Japan last year that he is on the same page as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Asian security.
China realises that India is being wooed by Japan, US and Western nations that are wary of its rising clout. Keeping that in mind, Beijing and Xi Jinping will like to ensure that India does not go totally into the US orbit. Besides, India provides a huge untapped market for China.
India too wants to be cautious. Modi recently dropped Japan from the Malabar naval exercises conducted between India and the US in October to please the Chinese. Does this mean that, like the United Progressive Alliance government before him, Modi too will not try to ruffle China’s feathers and keep a wary eye on Beijing’s sensibilities? Only time will tell.
