The press release issued by the Inter-Services Public Relations in Pakistan, the principal voice of the country’s military, following the meeting of the National Command Authority under the chairmanship of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in Islamabad on Wednesday will no doubt be studied very carefully in South Block and by the Indian security and military establishment.
The meeting almost entirely dealt with the sharp deterioration of Pakistan’s relations with India and its strategic implications, and Pakistan’s defence preparedness in the event of a war with India. It reviewed Pakistan’s doctrine of so-called "Full Spectrum Deterrence Capability", which emphasises its capacity to hold credible minimum deterrence against India in an armed conflict.
In sum, analysing the "fast-paced" development of "strategic and conventional capabilities" by India and "the evolving security dynamics of South Asia", as well as Pakistan’s "growing conventional asymmetry" vis-à-vis India, the meeting underscored the imperative of the nuclear option, if need be, "to deter all forms of aggression" by India.
Extraordinary turnaround
The development highlights the extraordinary turnaround in the climate of India-Pakistan relations since the United Progressive Alliance government’s rule in India ended. In flat 15 months, the present government has squandered away what one must look back today nostalgically as a relatively predictable climate of relations between the two countries.
How to explain this catastrophic happening? The heart of the matter is that the regional security climate was largely conducive to the preservation of the legacy bequeathed to the Narendra Modi government by the UPA in last May.
Consider the following.
Pakistan has been seriously bogged down for some years on its western borders with Afghanistan, which necessitated the thinning out of troops on the eastern borders with India. Its internal security situation has been under stress demanding priority attention by its security agencies.
On the political and diplomatic plane, Pakistan remained focused on the Afghan endgame, given the high stakes involved for the country’s medium term security and stability – and the unresolved Durand Line question.
Clearly, Pakistan is in no position today to launch a military attack on India. It has been symptomatic of this strategic reality that there is a sharp decline in the insurgency in Jammu & Kashmir and a tapering off in cross-border terrorism directed against India.
Suffice it to say, New Delhi was well-placed to work toward expanding the "peace dividends" and, in fact, it raised high hopes when Prime Minister Narendra Modi invited Sharif to his inaugural ceremony last year in May.
'Anti-Pakistan platform'
However, those hopes have practically been dashed today and increasingly it looks as if Modi had only extended to Sharif the customary privilege that all vassals are entitled to have at the coronation of the suzerain. Pakistan’s advisor to the prime minister on national security Sartaj Aziz (who is the de facto foreign minister) has been quoted as saying on Wednesday that in Islamabad’s estimation, the Modi government won the 2014 parliamentary poll on the basis of "anti-Pakistan platform" and has been pursuing the same policy from "day one".
Aziz said, “They (Modi government) want better ties, but on their own terms”. He was speaking in the specific context of two seminal statements from the Indian side during the past 10-day period alone, which have sent the India-Pakistan ties nose-diving, necessitating, arguably, the meeting that Sharif chaired in Islamabad yesterday.
In these past 10 days, India set the ball rolling with the army chief General Dalbir Singh shedding his fabulous reputation for being a strong silent soldier of discretion and reserve – presumably, on instructions from the political leadership – to underscore the readiness of the armed forces to wage a "swift, short" war with Pakistan.
It was an incredibly tactless statement to have been made at such a high level in the present tense climate of bilateral ties with Pakistan. It is one thing that air-gun shooters in the Indian cabinet wag their tongue, but it is quite another thing for an Indian army chief to speak without a sense of high responsibility.
The brilliant general should certainly know that the only way he could ensure that a war with Pakistan remained "swift" and "short" would be by nuking that country in the dead of the night. You don’t need a Clausewitz to explain that the "kinetics" of war with a nuclear power with bigger arsenal than India’s – and with second-strike capability – will ultimately depend on a variety of factors that are way beyond his or anyone’s control in New Delhi.
Akhand Bharat
Now, it is into this combustible mix of rhetoric that the Rashtriya Swayam Sevak bosses promptly waded in by presenting their celebrated doctrine of "Akhand Bharat" – a stark reminder to Pakistan that the RRS-led Modi government can never really reconcile itself with the creation of that country in 1947.
Most certainly, people in responsible positions should be careful about what they say in public. What General Dalbir Singh said about "short, swift" war was probably fit for a closed-door meeting with the Director-General of Military Operations at the Army Commanders Conference but not as the stuff of grandstanding.
Equally, while the RSS bosses may not be public officials, they happen to be extra-constitutional authorities wielding more power than many erstwhile emperors in India’s medieval history – and they indeed tend to be taken seriously in Pakistan, at least.
Unsurprisingly, Pakistan saw dark intentions behind the Indian army chief and the RSS bosses almost simultaneously making what seemed to be "back-to-back" statements. The Pakistani army chief General Raheel Sharif has since ticked off both with a single rebuff.
Back to the K-word
After what seems a very long time, a Pakistani army chief has spoken about what their version of the "unfinished business of Partition’" would look like – plainly put, peace with India and in the region is not possible until the Kashmir issue gets resolved according to the United Nations resolutions taking into account the wishes of the Kashmiri people.
As for his Indian counterpart’s dire warning, General Sharif was plainly dismissive: “Armed forces of Pakistan are fully capable to deal [with] all types of internal and external threats, may it be conventional or sub-conventional; whether it is cold start or hot start. We are ready!!” (The double exclamation is the General Head Quarters’.)
Are we hearing the beating of drum presaging the beginning of another bloody round of "low intensity war" (vicious cycle of cross-border terrorism), which cost India heavily in human and material treasure? Or, could it be that India and Pakistan are inching toward another full-fledged war? Time only can tell.
No matter what the political intentions were in ratcheting up tensions with Pakistan, the sad reality is that India is not presenting a convincing picture of itself as a responsible member of the international community when the so-called movers and shakers in the country behave like hollow men.
Do not forget that India is keen to secure a seat in the United Nations Security Council as a permanent member on the plea that it wants to contribute to international security and world peace and development. Incidentally, yoga, which Modi has been propagating under the UN auspices for the good of the soul and body of mankind, is itself all about self-control? And, yet, in its own region, India has chosen to preoccupy itself with sly thoughts about waging a "swift, short" war with its unfriendly neighbour and harbouring delusionary notions of undoing the existence of a sovereign independent nation that came into being 68 years ago.
The split personality does not do good to India’s image. The country would have been far better off if the RSS hadn’t blown Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s "cover" as a Buddhist in spirit spreading petals of goodwill in India’s neighbourhood and a moderniser by vocation who has India’s development as his burning ambition.
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The meeting almost entirely dealt with the sharp deterioration of Pakistan’s relations with India and its strategic implications, and Pakistan’s defence preparedness in the event of a war with India. It reviewed Pakistan’s doctrine of so-called "Full Spectrum Deterrence Capability", which emphasises its capacity to hold credible minimum deterrence against India in an armed conflict.
In sum, analysing the "fast-paced" development of "strategic and conventional capabilities" by India and "the evolving security dynamics of South Asia", as well as Pakistan’s "growing conventional asymmetry" vis-à-vis India, the meeting underscored the imperative of the nuclear option, if need be, "to deter all forms of aggression" by India.
Extraordinary turnaround
The development highlights the extraordinary turnaround in the climate of India-Pakistan relations since the United Progressive Alliance government’s rule in India ended. In flat 15 months, the present government has squandered away what one must look back today nostalgically as a relatively predictable climate of relations between the two countries.
How to explain this catastrophic happening? The heart of the matter is that the regional security climate was largely conducive to the preservation of the legacy bequeathed to the Narendra Modi government by the UPA in last May.
Consider the following.
Pakistan has been seriously bogged down for some years on its western borders with Afghanistan, which necessitated the thinning out of troops on the eastern borders with India. Its internal security situation has been under stress demanding priority attention by its security agencies.
On the political and diplomatic plane, Pakistan remained focused on the Afghan endgame, given the high stakes involved for the country’s medium term security and stability – and the unresolved Durand Line question.
Clearly, Pakistan is in no position today to launch a military attack on India. It has been symptomatic of this strategic reality that there is a sharp decline in the insurgency in Jammu & Kashmir and a tapering off in cross-border terrorism directed against India.
Suffice it to say, New Delhi was well-placed to work toward expanding the "peace dividends" and, in fact, it raised high hopes when Prime Minister Narendra Modi invited Sharif to his inaugural ceremony last year in May.
'Anti-Pakistan platform'
However, those hopes have practically been dashed today and increasingly it looks as if Modi had only extended to Sharif the customary privilege that all vassals are entitled to have at the coronation of the suzerain. Pakistan’s advisor to the prime minister on national security Sartaj Aziz (who is the de facto foreign minister) has been quoted as saying on Wednesday that in Islamabad’s estimation, the Modi government won the 2014 parliamentary poll on the basis of "anti-Pakistan platform" and has been pursuing the same policy from "day one".
Aziz said, “They (Modi government) want better ties, but on their own terms”. He was speaking in the specific context of two seminal statements from the Indian side during the past 10-day period alone, which have sent the India-Pakistan ties nose-diving, necessitating, arguably, the meeting that Sharif chaired in Islamabad yesterday.
In these past 10 days, India set the ball rolling with the army chief General Dalbir Singh shedding his fabulous reputation for being a strong silent soldier of discretion and reserve – presumably, on instructions from the political leadership – to underscore the readiness of the armed forces to wage a "swift, short" war with Pakistan.
It was an incredibly tactless statement to have been made at such a high level in the present tense climate of bilateral ties with Pakistan. It is one thing that air-gun shooters in the Indian cabinet wag their tongue, but it is quite another thing for an Indian army chief to speak without a sense of high responsibility.
The brilliant general should certainly know that the only way he could ensure that a war with Pakistan remained "swift" and "short" would be by nuking that country in the dead of the night. You don’t need a Clausewitz to explain that the "kinetics" of war with a nuclear power with bigger arsenal than India’s – and with second-strike capability – will ultimately depend on a variety of factors that are way beyond his or anyone’s control in New Delhi.
Akhand Bharat
Now, it is into this combustible mix of rhetoric that the Rashtriya Swayam Sevak bosses promptly waded in by presenting their celebrated doctrine of "Akhand Bharat" – a stark reminder to Pakistan that the RRS-led Modi government can never really reconcile itself with the creation of that country in 1947.
Most certainly, people in responsible positions should be careful about what they say in public. What General Dalbir Singh said about "short, swift" war was probably fit for a closed-door meeting with the Director-General of Military Operations at the Army Commanders Conference but not as the stuff of grandstanding.
Equally, while the RSS bosses may not be public officials, they happen to be extra-constitutional authorities wielding more power than many erstwhile emperors in India’s medieval history – and they indeed tend to be taken seriously in Pakistan, at least.
Unsurprisingly, Pakistan saw dark intentions behind the Indian army chief and the RSS bosses almost simultaneously making what seemed to be "back-to-back" statements. The Pakistani army chief General Raheel Sharif has since ticked off both with a single rebuff.
Back to the K-word
After what seems a very long time, a Pakistani army chief has spoken about what their version of the "unfinished business of Partition’" would look like – plainly put, peace with India and in the region is not possible until the Kashmir issue gets resolved according to the United Nations resolutions taking into account the wishes of the Kashmiri people.
As for his Indian counterpart’s dire warning, General Sharif was plainly dismissive: “Armed forces of Pakistan are fully capable to deal [with] all types of internal and external threats, may it be conventional or sub-conventional; whether it is cold start or hot start. We are ready!!” (The double exclamation is the General Head Quarters’.)
Are we hearing the beating of drum presaging the beginning of another bloody round of "low intensity war" (vicious cycle of cross-border terrorism), which cost India heavily in human and material treasure? Or, could it be that India and Pakistan are inching toward another full-fledged war? Time only can tell.
No matter what the political intentions were in ratcheting up tensions with Pakistan, the sad reality is that India is not presenting a convincing picture of itself as a responsible member of the international community when the so-called movers and shakers in the country behave like hollow men.
Do not forget that India is keen to secure a seat in the United Nations Security Council as a permanent member on the plea that it wants to contribute to international security and world peace and development. Incidentally, yoga, which Modi has been propagating under the UN auspices for the good of the soul and body of mankind, is itself all about self-control? And, yet, in its own region, India has chosen to preoccupy itself with sly thoughts about waging a "swift, short" war with its unfriendly neighbour and harbouring delusionary notions of undoing the existence of a sovereign independent nation that came into being 68 years ago.
The split personality does not do good to India’s image. The country would have been far better off if the RSS hadn’t blown Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s "cover" as a Buddhist in spirit spreading petals of goodwill in India’s neighbourhood and a moderniser by vocation who has India’s development as his burning ambition.
