A string of defeats in state, civic and local body elections over the past year – the latest one coming in this month's Maharashtra panchayat polls – has set alarm bells ringing in the Bharatiya Janata Party.
Apart from its humiliating losses in the Delhi and Bihar assembly elections, the party has also had to contend with reverses in municipal and panchayat elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat. The BJP is the ruling party in all these states.
The Congress has been the chief beneficiary, leading to an upbeat mood in its ranks, despite tasting defeat in local body elections in Kerala.
The ruling party in the states is usually expected to emerge victorious in local body elections because of its control over the state apparatus. However, the BJP bucked the trend with only the ruling Samajwadi Party managing to record impressive gains in the local body elections in Uttar Pradesh in late 2015.
Worrying trend
In public, those on the receiving end are playing down the results, arguing that they do no reflect the overall mood because these elections are fought purely on local issues. Unofficially, however, they admit that the recent verdicts are indicators of the prevailing sentiment on the ground.
Particularly worrying for the BJP is that it has taken a beating in rural areas, showing that Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi’s description of the Modi government as a “suit-boot ki sarkar” and “anti-farmer and pro-industry” has found sufficient takers in the hinterland.
“It is true that these elections do not cover a large population and are restricted to a small geographical area, but the results do reflect the mood of the people, “ said a senior Congress leader from Kerala.
After its defeat in Kerala’s local body elections, the ruling Congress has reason to worry given that assembly elections in the southern state are barely two months away.
But the BJP has bigger concerns to address.
Its defeats are not just a referendum on the functioning of the state government, but also show there is also growing disillusionment with the Modi government at the Centre.
In BJP-ruled Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, where chief ministers Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Raman Singh are into their third terms, anti-incumbency has set in. But people are also disenchanted with the ruling alliance in Delhi for its failure to deliver on promises to improve the economy, create jobs and contain inflation.
In Maharashtra, the Devendra Fadnavis government is a little over a year old. Yet, it got a rude shock when it was pushed to the fourth spot in the Nagar Panchayat polls earlier this month, while the Congress took top spot. Voters rejected the BJP-ruled government for its failure to manage the agrarian crisis in the state.
The election reverses in Gujarat are particularly galling for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who prided himself on having a tight grip on his home state during his tenure as chief minister. His successor, Anandiben Patel, is clearly out of her depth. This was evident in her poor handling of the reservation stir by the Patel community and it appears the BJP has paid the price for it in the local elections.
Despite the defeats, the BJP can draw comfort from the fact that it still has three years before the next general election to win back the confidence of the people. Acknowledging that its popularity in rural areas is on the wane, the Modi government is trying to get is act together. To this end, it recently launched a crop insurance scheme to provide relief to farmers.
Reaping the benefits
As for the Congress, it can hardly afford to get complacent or assume that it is on the comeback trail. While the BJP has taken over at the Centre, regional forces are growing in strength and popularity, with new players such as the Aam Aadmi Party seeking to increase its footprint.
The Congress leadership has to recognise that the uncertainty over Rahul Gandhi’s elevation has caused the party to drift to some extent. In addition, his inaccessibility and reliance on “non-political advisors” has not been well received by the rank and file. The party remains in a shambles in organisational terms, its footprint is vastly reduced and its state units are riven by factionalism.
It is ironic that while the party is celebrating victories in the local elections in Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra, these states are witnessing pitched battles between rival groups. In Maharashtra, the Gurudas Kamat and Sanjay Nirupam factions are literally slugging it out in public. And in Chhattisgarh, recent reports about how former chief minister Ajit Jogi sought to sabotage a by-election is threatening to snowball into a full-blown crisis. Jogi’s son, legislator Amit Jogi, has already been suspended in connection with this controversy and there is widespread speculation that the former chief minister may walk out from the Congress to form his own party.
But most importantly, the Congress is yet to draw up a credible future roadmap to revive its fortunes and come up with a slogan that defines its identity. Senior Congress leaders known to be close to Rahul Gandhi said they were groping for that one “big bang idea” like nationalising banks or the rural employment guarantee scheme to establish a connect with the electorate. “The party is currently in conversation on this issue,” they said.
