The efforts of Bihar chief minister and newly appointed Janata Dal (United) president Nitish Kumar to cobble together a broad alliance of anti-Bharatiya Janata Party forces outside his home state have hit a snag. The Rashtriya Lok Dal, led by former Union minister Ajit Singh, appears to be having second thoughts on backing this initiative.

After initially reacting enthusiastically to Nitish Kumar’s proposal, Ajit Singh is now learnt to have opened channels of communication with the Bharatiya Janata Party for a possible tie-up in next year’s Uttar Pradesh assembly polls. Ajit Singh, who was part of the United Progressive Alliance government, is known to be ideologically flexible and has no qualms about aligning with any party willing to offer him a “good deal”.

When Nitish Kumar suggested that anti-BJP forces should begin their collaborative effort first in Uttar Pradesh and then extend this alliance across the country, Ajit Singh had been more than willing to join the proposed front. After several rounds of meetings, Singh had even agreed to merge his RLD with the JD(U). Other parties such as the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha and the Samajwadi Janata Party were also set to join the new political outfit.

Quid pro quo

It was thought that the understanding between the JD(U) and Ajit Singh’s RLD would work to the advantage of both the parties. Since the JD(U) has no presence in Uttar Pradesh, it would have benefited from the RLD’s following among the Jats in Western UP and also helped in projecting Nitish Kumar as a national leader.

In turn, Nitish Kumar’s reputation and credibility would help Ajit Singh consolidate his position in Uttar Pradesh. According to JD(U) insiders, it was agreed during their discussions that the RLD chief would be given a free hand in Uttar Pradesh and his son Jayant would be projected as the new outfit’s chief ministerial candidate. Ajit Singh is also believed to have asked for a Rajya Sabha seat from the JD(U) quota in Bihar, but Nitish Kumar was not agreeable to this demand.

Even so, the merger talks were at an advanced stage and it was widely expected that that the new expanded political party would be launched this month after Nitish Kumar took over as JD (U) president from Sharad Yadav.

But the project now appears to have run into rough weather, with Ajit Singh said to be in touch with the BJP to discuss the modalities of a possible pact in next year’s Uttar Pradesh polls.

Ajit Singh clearly believes that his interests would be better served if he joined hands with the party in power at the Centre. In addition, the BJP has an outside chance of winning in Uttar Pradesh. The BJP, it is learnt, wants Ajit Singh to merge his party with theirs as it is well aware of the RLD chief’s penchant for hunting for the best bargain. But Ajit Singh would like to keep his independent identity precisely for that reason – it gives him the freedom to dictate terms to the BJP.

The JD(U) is still hoping that Ajit Singh will return to its fold as the BJP is unlikely to give him a free hand in Uttar Pradesh or project his son as a chief ministerial candidate – terms agreed to by Nitish Kumar. While the JD(U) is playing the waiting game, it has also decided not to make the next move on contacting the RLD chief.

Uphill task

Ajit Singh’s dilly-dallying has slowed down Nitish Kumar’s efforts to expand his footprint beyond Bihar and play a larger role at the national stage. But even before Ajit Singh thwarted his plans, Nitish Kumar’s move to play a lead role in building a broad anti-BJP front in the assembly elections currently underway in four states failed to materialise. The Bihar chief minister had encouraged the Congress and the All India United Democratic Front to sink their differences and contest the Assam polls together. However, the Congress shot down this proposal.

Although the Congress was happy to play second fiddle to the JD(U) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal in Bihar, it has reservations about doing the same at the national level as it believes that as a pan-Indian political party, it is the natural choice to anchor such an alliance. The Congress is also nervous that its vice president Rahul Gandhi would be hopelessly overshadowed by Nitish Kumar, should the Bihar chief minister realise his ambition of emerging as a national political player.

While the Congress has been cold to Nitish Kumar’s proposal, it has not rejected it either. It is well aware that it is in no position to take on the BJP alone and needs all the help possible in this uphill task. Recognising its reduced presence, the Congress agreed on an alliance with the Left parties in West Bengal and reunited with the DMK in Tamil Nadu. It may well have to extend its hand of friendship to others, including Nitish Kumar, if its fortunes do not improve in the 2019 Lok Sabha election.

“If the Congress reaches the magic figure of 200 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Rahul Gandhi will be the next prime minister,” said a Congress leader and former minister. “But this appears highly unlikely today. In case it falls short of this figure, it will be forced to support another party and candidate for the top job to keep out the BJP could well be Nitish Kumar.”