Amid strong indications that Priyanka Gandhi may campaign extensively for the Congress in Uttar Pradesh as it goes to the polls next year, officials said that the party is eyeing an alliance – preferably with the Bahujan Samaj Party – and hopes that she can make that happen.
The Congress has been out of the reckoning in this politically crucial Hindi heartland since 1989, when it was last in power with ND Tiwari as chief minister. It realises that it stands little chance in the polls next year. The party’s support base in Uttar Pradesh has eroded over the years, it lacks strong local leaders and the party organisation is at its weakest. Except for its strongholds of Amethi, represented by party Vice President Rahul Gandhi, and Rae Bareli, President Sonia Gandhi's constituency, it has little presence in the state.
So instead of pitching its ambitions high, the Congress’ primary objective is to stop the Bharatiya Janata Party from taking the state, party officials have indicated. Since 2002, Uttar Pradesh has either gone to the Bahujan Samaj Party or the Samajwadi Party, which is currently in power. If the BJP manages to wrest control of the state, that could lay the foundation for its re-election in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
Alliance hopes
To prevent this, the Congress believes it is important to form an alliance in the state, preferably with Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party, even though its official line is that it plans to contest the polls on its own.
The bitter truth is that the Congress is no position to attract allies in Uttar Pradesh because it has nothing to offer to its potential partners. Since its defeat in the 2014 general elections, the party has been significantly weakened and is now in power in just a handful of states.
However, it could increase its attractiveness as an ally if it whips up public enthusiasm – and for this, it needs Priyanka Gandhi, especially because her brother, Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi, has failed to make an impact.
Rahul Gandhi led a vigorous campaign in the 2012 Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, but to no avail. The Congress could not improve on its position in the 2007 state polls and came fourth once again, with just 28 seats.
Priyanka factor
Senior leaders privately accept that Priyanka Gandhi is their only hope in the state.
“Without her, the Congress will once again come a poor fourth, but with her [help], it can show a marginal improvement,” said a senior Congress leader who wished to remain anonymous. “But, more importantly, her entry with halt the BJP’s march to victory.”
Party strategy Prashant Kishor is also said to have made a strong pitch for her inclusion. Even the usually circumspect Ghulam Nabi Azad, who was recently given charge of the party in Uttar Pradesh, had recently indicated that Priyanka Gandhi would play a larger role in the poll campaign this time.
“The party workers want Priyanka Gandhi to step out of Amethi and Rae Bareli and campaign in the rest of the state,” the senior party leader told the press recently. “We’re hoping she will find time to take on this responsibility.”
Another senior Congress leader said that a formal decision about this would be announced at an appropriate time.
Seen as a charismatic campaigner, Priyanka Gandhi could change the political narrative in the state and enthuse both party workers and the electorate, Congress leaders believe. Though the Bahujan Samaj Party is known to shun pre-poll alliances and had earlier ruled out one with the Congress, the party believes that Mayawati may be forced to reconsider this if her own position becomes shaky.
On shaky ground
Till about a month ago, the Bahujan Samaj Party seemed to be gaining ground and opinion polls had suggested that the party was well on its way to dethroning the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party government.
However, the BJP’s aggressive campaign in the state, launched at the party’s national executive meeting in Allahabad on June 13 and 14, has left Mayawati vulnerable.
The exit from the Bahujan Samaj Party of senior leader Swami Prasad Maurya – who accused Mayawati of auctioning tickets for the upcoming polls – has reportedly dealt a blow to the party and sparked fear of more desertions.
Maurya, who was the Dalit party’s national general secretary, is widely speculated to be in talks with the BJP and Union Minister of State Ramshankar Katheria on Monday said that Maurya would join the party soon. Maurya has denied this.
Besides resorting to the politics of polarisation – seen in the manner in which it is keeping the Dadri and Kairana issues alive – the BJP is also said to be making a strong pitch for the votes of Dalits and other backward classes (excluding the Yadavs, which form a separate votebank) in the state.
Dalits, especially the sub-caste of Jatavs, form Mayawati’s core voter base and a shift in their loyalties will hurt her prospects.
It is precisely this vulnerability that the Congress hopes to cash in on. “There will be a lot of upheaval in all political parties in the coming months,” said a party leader.