The Election Commission on Wednesday announced dates for the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, with the state’s 407 seats in the state set to go to the polls in seven phases between February 11 and March 8. Counting for the entire state will be conducted on March 11.

Uttar Pradesh

Phases: 7

Voting Days: February 11, February 15, February 19, February 23, February 27, March 4 and March 8.

Counting Day: March 11

Uttar Pradesh is India’s largest state (in fact, its larger than all but four countries in terms of population). It is also seen as the heart of the Indian Union – political power in New Delhi invariably needs travel through UP. Elections in the state, therefore, are always an exciting affair.

In 2017, a Mahabharatian family feud will dominate the polls. The ruling Samajwadi Party is cleaved along the lines of father and son – an Oedipal complex that will decide the fate of 20 crore people. While the feud has been smouldering for a year now, recent events have seen a possibly final split, with Mulayam Singh Yadav laying claim to the cycle symbol of the party even as his son Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav called a meeting on Sunday that saw nearly 90% of Samajwadi MLAs turn up to express support for him.

The biggest gainer from this confusion is possibly the Bharatiya Janata Party, which is hoping to form a government in Uttar Pradesh after a long exile of 15 years. The BJP, it must be remembered, won 89% of Lok Sabha seats in the 2014 election. While the Modi Wave of 2014 might not be as strong in 2017, the joker in the pack is the Union government’s demonetisation.

Even as the move has caused widespread economic distress it has also, paradoxically, seen a fair measure of support in Uttar Pradesh, with people looking forward to the prime minister’s promises of eradicating black money and corruption. In a state where politics is often baked into ethnic moulds, a cross-caste measure like demonetisation is a bold one. Come February, will voters still believe the BJP’s promises? Or will they take out the anger of the economic slowdown at the ballot box?

The third player, of course, is Mayawati. Like the BJP, she also hopes to benefit from the Samajwadi feud, hoping that Muslims will switch camps to her Bahujan Samaj Party. Her hopes for an admittedly improbable Dalit-Muslim alliance can also be seen in her ticket distribution: a fourth of the BSP’s nominees are Muslim.

Here are other Scroll.in pieces that add context to the Uttar Pradesh election:

  • Why a BJP loss would be the only surprise of 2017 Uttar Pradesh election, by Praveen Chakravarty.   
  • Akhilesh Yadav’s coup in the Samajwadi Party sets the stage for a grand secular alliance in UP, writes Dhirendra K Jha.   
  • Inside the little-known world of the Bahujan Samaj Party: Yearning for equality, striving for power, by Ajaz Ashraf.