jobs market

Hard times: One in 10 jobs in India will disappear by 2022

Many of the existing jobs will evolve and 37% of the workforce will likely be deployed in roles requiring radically changed skill sets.

By 2022, one in 10 workers in India would have to be employed in jobs that do not even exist today. In other words, one in current 10 jobs will be gone in the next five years.

According to a report released by the management consulting firm Ernst & Young in December, a combination of globalisation, demographic changes and new-age technologies will change the face of Indian industries. Even existing jobs will evolve and 37% of the workforce will likely be deployed in roles that will require radically changed skill sets.

The report is based on questionnaires shared by Ernest & Young, followed by interviews with 130 business leaders, academics and representatives of multiple industries.

The $160 billion Information Technology business process management, or IT/BMP, industry faces the biggest challenge in these changing times: between 20% and 35% of its current employees are at risk of having their jobs wiped out by 2022.

The pace of hiring is likely to slow down in India’s tech sector, which currently employs around 3.8 million people directly and 13 million indirectly. “It has a significant share of exports, which are expected to be affected as companies in advanced markets begin to deploy automation technologies in their processes, affecting jobs in the sector,” the report said.

Compared to the historical growth rate of over 6%, hiring in India’s IT/BPM sector is expected to increase by only 3%-3.5% year-on-year to reach 4.5 million by 2022. Nearly three quarters of these jobs would require new skill sets.

Almost all the 29 IT/BPM sector leaders included in the survey believe that their current employees need to undergo re-skilling to tap into the evolving opportunities.

Of the 4.5 million jobs expected to be created in IT/BPM sector by 2022, between 4,50,000 and 9,00,000 would be new jobs, mostly in internet of things, machine learning and artificial intelligence. Nine out of 10 industry leaders expect skills in big data, cloud computing, robotics and automation to be the most sought-after in the next five years.

Most new jobs expected to be created in industries outside of IT/BPM, too, lean towards technology-based roles.

This article first appeared on Quartz.

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