While the jury is still out on the durability of a non-Congress, non-BJP Third Front proposed by Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrashekhar Rao, the Bharatiya Janata Party is hoping that this alliance of regional parties will materialise, as a divided Opposition clearly works to its advantage.
Rao, popularly called KCR, sprung a surprise on Sunday when he mooted the idea of a Third Front and evinced an interest in moving to the national political stage from Telangana, to which he has confined himself to so far. Moreover, his party, the Telangana Rashtriya Samithi, has been supporting the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance government at the Centre.
While KCR is going all out to underline that he is serious about bringing together like-minded parties for such an alliance, his sudden move has predictably led to considerable speculation about his motives and whether the proposed Front will fructify as the 2019 Lok Sabha election draws close.
There is overall agreement among all political parties, including the Congress and the BJP, that KCR is positioning himself as a national player to invoke Telugu pride and deflect attention from his government’s deficiencies, especially since the Telangana Assembly polls will be held along with the general elections. The Telangana Rashtriya Samithi did exceptionally well in the 2014 elections, winning 11 of the state’s 17 Lok Sabha seats and securing 63 seats in the 119-member Assembly. It is unlikely that the party will post similar results after four years in office.
“With a year to go for the next election, KCR has to go to the people with something,” remarked a senior BJP minister, who was happy with the Third Front proposal. “We are all for a Third Front…We have always wanted one. After all, it helps us.”
The BJP will be particularly interested in seeing that KCR’s experiment succeeds as the latest news about a tie-up between the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Samajwadi Party for the Gorakhpur and Phulpur bypolls in Uttar Pradesh does not augur well for it. The saffron party had won a landslide victory in Uttar Pradesh in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections as well as in the Assembly elections last year.
Regional parties back proposal
It is obvious that KCR has his political compulsions in announcing his plans to play a larger role on the national political stage. Yet West Bengal Chief Minister and Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee lost no time in extending her support to this move. Telangana Rashtriya Samithi leaders maintained that the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the Samajwadi Party were not averse to such a grouping either. On Monday, the Telangana chief minister’s office issued a statement saying that former Chhattisgarh chief minister Ajit Jogi had expressed his willingness to join the proposed alliance, suggesting that KCR’s initiative is gathering momentum.
Samajwadi Party leader Ram Gopal Yadav said that though there has been no contact with the Telangana Rashtra Samithi on this issue, his party would have no objection to joining such a coalition.
The Telangana chief minister’s public declaration and the swift support it drew from other regional parties comes at a time when serious doubts have arisen about the ability of the Congress to lead an anti-BJP front. Though the party was, till recently, seen as a viable lead player after its improved performance in the Gujarat Assembly polls, the results of the Tripura, Nagaland and Meghalaya Assembly elections have dampened the enthusiasm of the other Opposition parties. These parties are not sure if a Rahul Gandhi-led Congress can pose a serious challenge to Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2019. Though it is still early days, the formation of a Third Front will pick up speed if the Congress is unable to retain Karnataka in the forthcoming Assembly polls. Similarly, the Congress’s performance in the year-end polls in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, where it is pitted directly against the BJP, will also go a long way in deciding the future of the Third Front.
It is also estimated that it will be difficult for the BJP to improve its 2014 performance, and that it could lose up to 60-odd seats in next year’s Lok Sabha elections. Regional parties account for 130 of the Lok Sabha’s 545 seats. If this Front makes substantial gains in the 2019 elections, it could be in a position to play kingmaker. “KCR and many others want to keep their post-poll options open,” said a senior Congress leader.
However, the Third Front has the potential of running into trouble over possible squabbles over leadership issues. Banerjee may have rushed to express solidarity with KCR but it is highly unlikely that she will accept the Telangana chief minister as the leader of this coalition. She is bound to lay claim to this position given that West Bengal has more Lok Sabha seats than Telangana. Senior Congress leaders, who have dealt with Banerjee in the past, are convinced that her game plan is to first isolate their party in the Third Front and subsequently force Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi to support her candidature for the prime minister’s post. This will, of course, depend on how the numbers stack up after the general elections.
Though wary about these moves, the Congress is drawing comfort from the fact that both KCR and Banerjee are highly unpredictable and could well change their stance closer to the next Lok Sabha polls. “There is a year to go for the next general election…you never know what KCR and Banerjee will do by then,” said a senior Congress office bearer.