When West Bengal Chief Minister and Trinamool Congress President Mamata Banerjee visited Delhi last month, her trip generated a flurry of political activity as well as media frenzy.
During her visit, Banerjee met a host of leaders from the Opposition camp to persuade them to come together on a common platform – a third front or a federal front – to take on the Bharatiya Janata Party in next year’s general election. With this move, Banerjee hopes to poise herself to take on a larger national role in case the coalition of regional parties puts up a strong show in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
However, Banerjee is not the only regional leader who nurses national ambitions. Former Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister and Bahujan Samaj Party head Mayawati also believes she has the popularity and experience needed to lead an anti-BJP coalition. Like the Trinamool chief, Mayawati is also making moves to establish herself as a credible leader on the national scene – but is working behind the scenes, taking baby steps in an attempt to shore up her profile after successive defeats in the Uttar Pradesh polls have hurt her political fortunes.
Strategic moves
Instead of approaching Opposition parties en masse to stitch together a third front, Mayawati is striking one-on-one deals to strengthen her position and improve her bargaining power. She has expressed willingness to build an alliance with her rival, the Samajwadi Party, in Uttar Pradesh for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The two first worked together in the March Lok Sabha bye-polls in Phulpur and Gorakhpur, which the Samajwadi Party candidates won with the Bahujan Samaj Party’s support, though there was no formal alliance. Mayawati has also tied up with the Janata Dal (Secular) for the Karnataka Assembly polls in May. And last week, she sealed an alliance with the Indian National Lok Dal in Haryana for the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in the state next year.
Like Banerjee, the Bahujan Samaj Party chief has realised that she will need the help of other parties to counter the BJP. Though she had always spurned offers of a pre-poll partnership, Mayawati declared her willingness to align with the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh after she was routed in Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls in early 2017, which saw the BJP storm to power in the Hindi heartland state. Their probable alliance for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls could make them a formidable force as it could bring together their support bases comprising Dalits, minority communities Other Backward Classes.
That Mayawati’s main support base is the Dalit community could also help her extend her influence beyond Uttar Pradesh, unlike Banerjee, whose presence is restricted to West Bengal. The poll pacts with the Janata Dal (Secular) and the Indian National Lok Dal, for instance, could help Mayawati consolidate her Dalit support base in Karnataka and Haryana. Mayawati is also likely to make similar moves in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Punjab, which have sizeable Dalit populations.
Common ground
Despite their differences, Banerjee and Mayawati have something in common: neither is keen to do business with the Congress unless circumstances force them to align with the pan-Indian party in the larger interest of keeping out the BJP. Both the leaders are keeping their focus on the regional parties, hoping they can win enough seats in the next Lok Sabha polls and then get post-election support of the Congress, as had happened with the United Front in 1996.
Mayawati is understandably wary of the Grand Old Party as it has the potential to disturb her support base – the Scheduled Castes have traditionally voted for the Congress on a national scale. This is why the Bahujan Samaj Party decided to back the Samajwadi Party in the Uttar Pradesh bye-polls, with neither group making any effort to involve the Congress.
Banerjee, meanwhile, has not warmed up to Congress President Rahul Gandhi and is unwilling to accept him as the leader of an anti-BJP coalition. When Trinamool chief called on former Congress Chief Sonia Gandhi during her Delhi visit in March, she is learnt to have indicated to her that the Grand Old Party should not try to lead a proposed third front but instead be a part of it. Banerjee has suggested a “one-to-one” fight between the Opposition and the BJP, meaning that the party which is strong in a particular state should battle the BJP there, while Opposition parties should support the effort. However, it could be difficult to implement this formula, as parties are unwilling to give up their claims over seats in various states, for fear of a clear wipe-out.