With the Madras High Court on Thursday upholding the Tamil Nadu Assembly speaker’s decision to disqualify 18 All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam MLAs, the focus now shifts to the Election Commission. Soon after the verdict, Chief Election Commissioner Om Prakash Rawat told ANI, “Since disqualification will create vacancies and whenever there are vacancies, we are required to hold elections [bye-elections] to those vacancies within six months.”
Speaker P Dhanapal had on September 18, 2017, disqualified the 18 MLAs who owe allegiance to sidelined leader TTV Dhinakaran. This came a month after the 18 MLAs met the governor and sought the removal of Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami.
Apart from the 18 Assembly seats that have fallen vacant in the wake of the disqualifications, bye-elections to two other constituencies – Thiruvarur and Thiruparankundram – are pending after the death of their legislators. Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam patriarch M Karunanidhi, who died on August 7, had represented the Thiruvarur seat. The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam’s AK Bose, who died on August 2, was the MLA from Thiruparankundram. In October, the Election Commission had said it was not announcing the dates for these two bye-elections because of the arrival of the North East Monsoon.
It isn’t clear is whether these bye-elections in Tamil Nadu will be conducted before the Lok Sabha polls next year or simultaneously with them. The High Court verdict had leaders across the political spectrum in the state making one demand: early bye-elections to fill the vacancies.
As the situation stands, 20 seats in the 234-strong Assembly are vacant with two full years to go before the next election. The disqualification case went on for a whole year. The government has the support of 113 MLAs in the Assembly. The majority mark is 117, but the disqualification of the 18 legislators had reduced the effective strength of the House.
‘Fill vacant seats’
With the verdict, Opposition parties began preparing their electoral strategies. Leaders of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam met at their office in Chennai to discuss their next course of action. “Clear instructions have been given that those in charge of the Assembly constituencies should coordinate with the party district secretaries to complete the election process,” party president MK Stalin told the media after the meeting.
Stating that his party was not concerned with the outcome of the court case, Stalin said, “Our party only emphasises on an early election to fill the vacancies.” He added that the majority of people in Tamil Nadu were in favour of bringing the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam – which has 89 MLAs in the Assembly – to power.
The Congress’ Tamil Nadu president Su Thirunavukkarasar, meanwhile, pointed out that the vacancies meant that 50 lakh people in the state were without representatives. “There is a population of at least 2.5 lakh in each Assembly constituency,” he explained. “All the 20 constituencies need people’s representatives to voice their concerns in the Assembly and to implement projects.”
The Bharatiya Janata Party’s state chief, Tamilisai Soundararajan, also called for immediate elections. “The BJP is ready to face the bye-elections,” she said.
Some Opposition leaders said the vacancies over a prolonged period of time meant that several projects were stuck. Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam general secretary Vaiko said MLA funds had not been utilised and civic work had been stalled in these constituencies.
Desiya Murpokku Dravidar Kazhagam treasurer Premalatha Vijayakant suggested that the governor immediately call for a floor test as the Palaniswami-led government was not stable. “They have less than 118 MLAs on their side,” she said. “Let us go by this arithmetic. Let EPS prove whether he has the majority.”
Celebrations and anxiety
In the ruling camp, party leaders and workers celebrated the verdict by bursting crackers and distributing sweets to the public. They welcomed Palaniswami and Deputy Chief Minister O Panneerselvam with flowers. Palaniswami said the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam was ready to face elections. And if the disqualified MLAs appealed against the verdict, he said, “We will decide on our next course of action based on their decision.”
On the other hand, the 18 MLAs were pondering their next move. After the verdict, Dhinakaran met the 18 MLAs at a resort in Tirunelveli district, where they had been staying for the last four days. “A decision will be taken on whether to go in appeal against the High Court verdict or face the elections,” he said. One of the disqualified MLAs, Thanga Tamil Selvam, told Scroll.in from the resort in Courtallam that a decision in this regard would be taken in two days’ time.
‘Just a power struggle’
The verdict has strengthened the position of the Palaniswami-Panneerselvam camp, according to writer and political commentator Aazhi Senthilnathan.
He also said the disqualification of the MLAs is a huge setback to Dhinakaran and his aunt VK Sasikala, the aide of former chief minister J Jayalalithaa. Senthilnathan said the anti-Sasikala camp in the ruling party would see the court’s ruling as an opportunity to consolidate its place. “By doing so, they will increase their negotiating power if they have to discuss any alliance with the BJP later,” he added.
Senthilnathan also spoke of a third scenario. He said that if bye-elections are held within six months, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam will gain. “If the AIADMK camp is divided into two and DMK wins more than 10 seats, the DMK will come to power,” he said.
The political commentator, however, did not rule out a merger between the two rival camps in the ruling party. He recalled that the party had split into factions after former Chief Minister MG Ramachandran’s death but later come together. “We cannot see the Palaniswami-Panneerselvam camp and Dhinakaran’s camp as enemies,” he explained. “This is only a power struggle.”
Journalist Ilangovan Rajasekaran added, “The new political formations will decide the future course of politics in Tamil Nadu.”
