On October 26, Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena shocked the island nation when he unceremoniously removed Ranil Wickremesinghe as prime minister and replaced him with former president Mahinda Rajapaksa, once Sirisena’s bitter rival.
The developments followed a months-long cold war between Sirisena and Wickremesinghe. A little over a week before Wickremesinghe’s removal, the media had reported that Sirisena had told a cabinet meeting that the Research and Analysis Wing, India’s foreign intelligence agency, was plotting to assassinate him. This revelation was reportedly made one day before Wickremesinghe’s scheduled visit to New Delhi.
The dismissal of a duly elected prime minister was condemned across the board. Wickremesinghe refused to accept Sirisena’s decision, which led to demands for a floor test in the Parliament. There were allegations of horse trading, with audio recordings of alleged bribe offers undermining the legitimacy of the proposed floor test. When it became clear that Rajapaksa would not be able to prove his majority, Sirisena dissolved the House on November 9 and called for fresh elections on January 5.
Most countries have been cautious in their response to the developments in Sri Lanka, primarily pointing to the need to uphold the country’s Constitution, which does not allow the president to remove the prime minister. India took a similar stand, expressing the hope that the constitutional process would be respected.
However, following the dissolution of Sri Lanka’s Parliament, political parties in Tamil Nadu have urged the Central government to intervene decisively in the matter. On November 10, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam leader MK Stalin said the Centre should not stay silent but condemn the developments in the neighbouring country and ensure the safety of Tamils there.
While their concern is justified, it would be unwise for India to take sides in the internal politics of another sovereign country. And diplomacy aside, open intervention by India might prove counter-productive to the cause of Tamils.
Wickremesinghe is seen by many as close to India while Rajapaksa has made his dislike of India clear multiple times following his defeat to Sirisena in the 2015 presidential elections. He had then held the Research and Analysis Wing responsible for his defeat. He had alleged that India was unhappy with his pro-China tilt and had helped his opponents in the elections.
Any attempt now by India to openly meddle in Sri Lanka’s internal politics would just be ammunition for Rajapaksa to whip up anti-India sentiments and project its opponents as puppets in New Delhi’s hands. The return of the authoritarian Rajapaksa will have a direct impact on the well-being of Tamils and nullify whatever progress has been made since his removal in 2015. It is important that India and parties in Tamil Nadu show restraint and let the people of Sri Lanka, including its Tamils, handle the internal turmoil.