If India’s air strikes inside Pakistan dominated the headlines on Tuesday, Wednesday was all about conflicting reports about Pakistan strikes in India.
By the evening, this much was clear: One Indian pilot was in Pakistan custody after his MiG 21 crashed on the Pakistan side. India also shot down one Pakistan fighter jet that had attempted to target “military installations on India’s side” in Jammu and Kashmir.
After a day of claims and counter claims by both India and Pakistan that saw international air travel being affected after both countries closed their air space for a few hours, the debate among commentators and defence analysts was how both countries could proceed.
Where do we go from here?
Foreign policy and security expert Srinath Raghavan called for a return to diplomacy.
To what end? Delusion to think we can achieve escalation dominance. Nor can we win this on points. Pandering to domestic constituencies seldom makes for sensible strategy. We've made our point - time to get diplomacy going.(1/2) https://t.co/zcJKcbZ4ib
— Srinath Raghavan (@srinathraghava3) February 27, 2019
Swarajya Editorial Director R Jagganathan disagreed.
For a former army man i doubt you know the first thing about long term peace and deterrence. The latter will not happen by rushing to talks. We dont need to escalate or back down. Quiet determination is what is required
— R Jagannathan (@TheJaggi) February 27, 2019
Raghavan pointed out that diplomacy is not “backing down”.
Pakistani journalist and political commentator Najam Sethi criticised the bad precedent India had set by striking across the international border.
In all this talk of how each side acquitted itself, India has set two new precedents: it has initiated action across an international border and it has legitimised the notion of pre-emptive strikes. This will have far reaching and worrisome consequences.
— Najam Sethi (@najamsethi) February 26, 2019
Retired Lieutenant General HS Panag advocated a hard-nosed pragmatism, saying setbacks were to be expected, but India would prevail in the long run.
Friends war is a two way street. There will be gains and there will be losses. These are just the opening rounds. No need to jump up in glee at success or be dismayed after setbacks. Indian Armed Forces have the capacity and the capability. We shall prevail.
— Lt Gen H S Panag(R) (@rwac48) February 27, 2019
Escalation ladder
Wednesday’s developments are being seen as an escalation by defence and security commentators, with one saying it is not yet over.
Clearly we are on an escalatory path. Question is whether governments will bring the diplomats in yet to take over, or whether more rounds of military/Non-military action remain.
— Suhasini Haidar (@suhasinih) February 27, 2019
Absolutely. Attempts to "get even" by further strikes will draw further retaliation too. "Escalation ladder" is an oxymoron. The metaphor of escalation reminds us that once you climb on to an escalator you can only get out at the top. https://t.co/hkZbNTsqNr
— Srinath Raghavan (@srinathraghava3) February 27, 2019
Elections and escalation
On speculation about the role of the upcoming Lok Sabha polls, foreign policy expert Tanvi Madan pointed out that elections could actually also help keep escalation in check.
Yes, elex might hv meant the desire to do sthg. But elex also means not wanting things to escalate beyond a point. No politician wants to get into a situation they can't control.
— Tanvi Madan (@tanvi_madan) February 27, 2019
(This is also why the lowering of temp w/ China, Pak in the last few months before this).
Reuters journalist Gerry Doyle said India and Pakistan could still step back.
as you pointed out earlier, the political considerations--the nationalist fervor pervading both sides at the moment--favor escalation, but you're absolutely right, the leaders have every opportunity to step back and deescalate now
— Gerry Doyle (@mgerrydoyle) February 27, 2019
One observer criticised India for using military operations for political gains, saying publicising such attacks leads to higher expectations, which has led to the current situation.
Main lesson for both countries.
— Tenzing Lamsang (@TenzingLamsang) February 27, 2019
Pakistan should realize it is playing with fire using non-state actors. Can easily lead to escalation.
Indian politicians should realize it is a bad idea to use military ops for domestic political gains/publicity as other side can hit back.
Questions over Tuesday’s IAF strikes
The day also saw questions being raised over the evidence emanating from the reports that came in from the site of the Indian Air Force bombings in the Pakistan village of Jaba.
this thread. time for modi to talk to the country. with evidence. for the moment on available evidence it seems that his ploy to win elections has resulted in a pointless air raid and one indian pilot captured. suggests we now have IC-814 like fiasco repeated by another bjp govt https://t.co/IEp1UvkVdD
— Hartosh Singh Bal (@HartoshSinghBal) February 27, 2019
Others pointed to Pakistan dominating the propaganda war.
Bad situation:
— Aditya Menon (@AdityaMenon22) February 27, 2019
1 So far no proof of casualties in #BalakotAirStrike. Ground reports from Reuters, BBC Urdu, AJE say no casualties
2 IAF pilot #Abhinandan in Pak captivity. Modi govt silent
3 Six IAF officers, civilian killed in Budgam air crash
4 Pak dominating propaganda war
Confusion earlier in the day
There was some confusion earlier in the day about claims of airstrikes by Pakistan, and that it had two Indian pilots in its custody.
In response to PAF strikes this morning as released by MoFA, IAF crossed LOC. PAF shot down two Indian aircrafts inside Pakistani airspace. One of the aircraft fell inside AJ&K while other fell inside IOK. One Indian pilot arrested by troops on ground while two in the area.
— Maj Gen Asif Ghafoor (@OfficialDGISPR) February 27, 2019
How is it responsible journalism to have such a headline? The story clearly adds "Pakistan spokesman said" to every claim made -- but the headline is screaming "truth". Sad. https://t.co/XHEnHVJlGx
— Narayan Lakshman (@narlak) February 27, 2019
India, till at least 1 pm, maintained that all its pilots were accounted for. Then, at a press conference held after 3 pm, India acknowledged one of its pilots was missing.
Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Raveesh Kumar confirmed in the press conference that the pilot went missing after India shot down a Pakistani aircraft that had attempted to target “military installations on India’s side” in Jammu and Kashmir.
“In this engagement, we have lost one MiG 21,” said Kumar, adding that the pilot was “missing in action”. “Pakistan claims he is in their custody,” Kumar said. “We are ascertaining the facts.”
There was some criticism that the spokesperson did not take questions.
Still beyond any imagination, why MEA Secretary couldn't take questions from the press? Why Indians to know from Pakistan? Why Indian defence forces were not informed us earlier than Pakistan? Lingering doubts still persist.
— SHETTY.K.V. (@KohimaVittal) February 27, 2019
Pakistan later confirmed its Army had only one Indian pilot in its custody.
There is only one pilot under Pakistan Army’s custody. Wing Comd Abhi Nandan is being treated as per norms of military ethics. pic.twitter.com/8IQ5BPhLj2
— Maj Gen Asif Ghafoor (@OfficialDGISPR) February 27, 2019
Pilot in captivity
The missing pilot was identified on social media as Wing Commander Abhinandan. A few videos, believed to be that of the pilot, were being circulated on Twitter.
Even when the wing commander is being transferred to a military vehicle, soldiers are physically standing between him and the crowd of local Kashmiris with one pushing them back with all his force. Reassuring to see sanity was not abandoned. 2/2
— Abbas Nasir (@abbasnasir59) February 27, 2019
The video of the Indian pilot Abhinandan in high spirits, sipping tea, praising his Pakistani counterparts, has single-handedly humanised this surreal conflict.
— Umer Ali (@IamUmer1) February 27, 2019
A lot shall be written on this in times to come. #SayNoToWar
the Indian pilot, Wing Commander Abhi Nandan, seems like a solid soldier, calm for someone who was shot down and had to bail out. during his "interview" he was also perfectly within his rights to decline answering some questions. let's hope he is reunited with his family soon.
— EH (@ejazhaider) February 27, 2019
Helicopter crash
In a separate incident, an Indian helicopter crashed in Jammu and Kashmir’s Budgam district. According to an Indian Air Force statement, six Indian Air Force officials and a civilian were killed in the crash.
The IAF’s formal statement on today’s Mi-17 chopper crash in which the six-man crew didn’t survive. Tragic in the extreme. Amidst a focus on hostilities, this accident will likely go largely unreported. pic.twitter.com/AzOdaXtptb
— Shiv Aroor (@ShivAroor) February 27, 2019
Nuclear threat
On Tuesday, Indian fighter planes had crossed over into Pakistani airspace to strike a Jaish-e-Mohammad training camp. The terrorist organisation had taken responsibility for the February 14 Pulwama suicide bombing in which 40 Central Reserve Police Force personnel were killed.
Following this strike, Pakistan made a not-so-veiled nuclear threat at a press conference on Tuesday, referring to its National Command Authority or NCA, which controls its nuclear weapons.
Heavy-handed and clumsy nuclear signaling by Pakistan here. But it's intended to serve as reminder of risks of conventional escalation, either to deter further Indian strikes or, perhaps more likely, to backstop India's response to any forthcoming Pakistani counter-retaliation. https://t.co/lrer8dbz4c
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) February 26, 2019
The allusion to nuclear weapons in the press conference dominated Pakistan newspaper front pages on Wednesday. But many people seemed oblivious to the dangers, prompting some to point out the seriousness of the situation.
Astounding, dumbfounding, and frankly numbing, that some folks can be so cavalier and hung-ho about this perilous military brinkmanship between two physically attached nuclear powers.
— Sankarshan Thakur (@SankarshanT) February 27, 2019
Imran Khan holds press conference
Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan addressed the nation in the afternoon.
In his five-minute statement, Imran Khan said Pakistan’s action was “only intended to convey that if you can come into our country, we can do the same”. “From here, it is imperative that we use our heads and act with wisdom,” Khan said, according to Dawn.
Nothing will be settled until the Pakistani military/ISI stop their decades old use of Islamist extremist proxies to wage asymmetric warfare across its borders in Afghanistan and India. https://t.co/zk8Y5N2Nva
— Jonathan Landay (@JonathanLanday) February 27, 2019
Some pointed to what Imran Khan could do to ease tensions.
Dear @ImranKhanPTI, rather than let other countries get involved & claim the credit why don’t you send #WingCommanderAbhinandan back without it seeming to be done under international pressure. Statesmanship is better than brinkmanship for peace in the region.
— Omar Abdullah (@OmarAbdullah) February 27, 2019
Modi’s silence
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s silence on both Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s events too received a fair share of commentary. He should address the issue, suggested Jagannathan.
It would be a good idea for PM to address nation and also meet opp leaders every alternate day to brief them on what is happening on Pak front so that national consensus remains solid. PM must ask opp not to make statements that will weaken national resolve
— R Jagannathan (@TheJaggi) February 27, 2019
Also Read:
Capture of IAF pilot: What are the Geneva conventions that India says Pakistan has violated?
Cartoonists cheer ‘Surgical Strike 2’, praise Narendra Modi
‘An escalation is inevitable, but an escalation to war is unlikely’: Experts analyse Balakot strikes
Why did the Jaish-e-Mohammad choose Balakot as one of its first bases?
IAF strike on Pakistan: What is a ‘non-military preemptive action’?