A defeat against Pakistan, followed by another one against Sri Lanka. Hopes depending on Afghanistan beating a higher-ranked side. Tournament being held in UAE. There has been a major sense of deja vu about India’s Asia Cup 2022 campaign, especially in the Super Four stage as Rohit Sharma and Co face another early exit from a multi-team tournament.

India’s hopes of defending their title hangs by a thread after two defeats in the Super Four stage of the competition.

First, Pakistan defeated India in the last over of a run-chase. Then Sri Lanka followed suit. Dasun Shanaka and Co have more than just one foot in the final after three impressive wins on the trot, first defeating Bangladesh in a thriller to reach the Super Four and then defeating Afghanistan and India with impressive run-chases.

India will be eliminated if....

Pakistan defeat Afghanistan on Wednesday, plain and simple. If the Babar Azam-led team manages to continue their momentum and defeat their neighbours at the Sharjah Cricket Stadium, India’s (and Afghanistan’s) hopes are over as both Sri Lanka and Pakistan will be on four points from two matches. Should that happen, the tournament will be left with a dead rubber (India vs Afghanistan) and one dress rehearsal between Pakistan and Sri Lanka before the final.

India will, of course, also be eliminated if Afghanistan defeat Pakistan in Sharjah and then travel to Dubai to beat India on Thursday. Afghanistan are playing back-to-back matches in the UAE heat though, so it remains to be seen how they can do that.

India can still qualify if....

Short answer, seems rather unlikely.

Long answer goes like this. Afghanistan defeat Pakistan in Sharjah on Wednesday, but by a small margin. That will take Afghanistan to two points, keep Pakistan on two points. Then India will have to defeat Afghanistan on Thursday by a big margin to hope for a Net Run Rate swing that takes them past Pakistan, or at least very close. In the end, Sri Lanka will have to defeat Pakistan in the final group match to keep three teams tied on two points. In that scenario, India can progress if they have improved their NRR sufficiently.

One thing for certain...

There won’t be a third India-Pakistan match in this Asia Cup for sure, despite all the pre-tournament hype around that possibility. Only one of India or Pakistan can reach the final.