It’s difficult to ascertain at which point the football transfer market went bonkers. Or has it always been this way?

As Liverpool signed Dutchman Virgil van Dijk earlier this week, the transfer, having been circled around the rumour mill quite a few times in the summer, wasn’t the talk of the town. What did make headlines though was the £75 million that the Reds shelled out for the centre-back, making him the most expensive defender of all time.

Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp in 2016 had ruled out spending the kind of money Manchester United paid for midfielder Paul Pogba – a world-record £89 million. Yet, the German was forced to shell out more than three-fourths of that amount on a defender. Why? Because he was forced to and Southampton knew that Liverpool could afford to.

The Van Dijk saga is the new normal in 2017, a year which has seen a footballer move for €222 million (£198 million): An obscene amounts for some, pocket change for others, a win for all sellers.

Bosman ruling and other tipping points

The five years from 1996-2001 saw the transfer record being shattered six times, kickstarted by Alan Shearer’s move to Newcastle United for £15 million. This era of transfer mayhem would end with Real Madrid signing Luis Figo and Zinedine Zidane in the Galacticos I period, with the Frenchman being bought for €46.5 million.

The 1997-’98 season of the Champions League saw the runners-up of domestic leagues allowed into the qualifying rounds of Europe’s premier competition for the first time. Today, the CL has insulated itself further than before, with 15 of the 32 teams directly qualifying for the group stages from just six of Europe’s 55 leagues. A further six from these top leagues are eligible for Europe’s premier competition, thus meaning that 65% of the CL’s constituents may come from 11% of the leagues.

One of the largest tipping points came on December 15, 1995, with the Bosman ruling, which meant Jean-Luc Bosman and other European footballers were free to negotiate deals with clubs in the EU after their existing contracts had expired; they were also allowed to sign pre-contract deals with other clubs if they had six months or less remaining on their current deals.

Eight years had passed though since 2001, and with Zidane as the benchmark, players moving for eight figures had now become commonplace. Real Madrid then did something that would set the precedent for players moving for sums closer to nine figures.

Kaka and Cristiano Ronaldo were signed for a total of €161 million within a few days of each other in 2009, as the foundations for Galacticos II were laid. The transfer record has since been broken three times in four years, with each of Neymar, Kylian Mbappe (loan initially, to be completed in 2018) and Ousmane Dembele signing as part of £100-million-plus deals in the summer of 2017.

Ever-growing disparity with no end in sight

In what is a clear-indicator of the growing disparity between Europe’s elite and the rest, the highest in-bound transfer of any Dutch Eredevisie club was the €8 million that PSV Eindhoven paid to Pachuca for Mexico striker Hirving Lozano.

In comparison, Leicester City had to pay more than double that amount to secure the services of Harry Maguire from relegated Hull. Seven English clubs had one transfer or more in excess of €40 million and only six did not buy a player exceeding €20 million.

With television deals skyrocketing in the ’90s as it did for the Premier League for the 2016-’19 cycle, wages and transfer fees were bound to go up. The current domestic plus international TV rights for the Premier League could eclipse £8 billion, which would mean that relegated teams would earn more from the television rights than the likes of Bayern Munich and Juventus.

A change in broadcasting and the introduction of additional media, such as live-streaming, has added to the existing inflation, resulting in higher revenues and higher transfer budgets. With more exposure across more modes and more rights, and obviously more money.

It’s not just the Premier League clubs that are having to shell out the extra dough as this affects valuations across the board, resulting in a cycle of inflated activity. Barcelona dug their heels in for a €200-million-plus deal for Neymar, and they in turn were forced to pay Borussia Dortmund a premium for Dembele.

Similarly, if Dortmund were to buy local German talent, it would not come cheap with clubs now knowing that the German club is flush full of funds with the Dembele transfer. Southampton, in their bid to reinvest the Van Dijk funds, would likely be faced with similar challenges.

Threat from China

Competition has been limited to a few with PSG aiming to be the first club not from England, Germany, Italy or Spain to lift ol’ Big Ears since Porto did it in 2002-’03. Yet, the biggest threat to the European transfer market has come from China.

While the explosion in the Chinese market has been tempered down this season with a rule starting that clubs which bought foreign players for more than €6 million would have to pay the same amount to the Chinese Football Development Fund, meaning that existing transfers would cost double.

Prior to this rule, Hulk, Jackson Martinez, Asamoah Gyan, Demba Ba, Carlos Tevez and Oscar were tapped up for exorbitant sums, thus prompting the European market to react and try and stop Chinese Super League clubs from poaching players. Chinese influence on European football is far from over, as Manchester City, Lyon, Inter Milan, Atletico Madrid are just some of the clubs which now list Chinese firms and individuals as investors.

The phenomenon is not limited to Chinese clubs but is taking effect globally. Even in India, as many as eight Indians will be earning Rs 1 crore-plus for the first time on account of the Indian Super League.

We are firmly in the second phase of the 21st century transfer market mega-rise and the Neymar deal has sent out a message that no transfer is too overpriced or impossible. As we hit the winter transfer window, Virgil Van Dijk is not an anomaly anymore, but just one in a series of events to test the sustainability of football.