Can Argentina still qualify for the last 16 of the World Cup?

This was a popular search term on Google after Lionel Messi and Co suffered a horrendous 0-3 loss to Croatia in their second group-stage game on Thursday. After a 1-1 draw with Iceland in the first, Argentina are now in a tight spot as they might have to return home from Russia very early.

But all is not lost as mathematically, Argentina can still qualify for the knock out stages. The last round of matches will see Argentina face Nigeria in a must-win match while Iceland will take on Croatia.

Croatia sit at the top of Group D with six points and have sealed their passage to the next round. Iceland have one point, the same as Argentina, and Nigeria have no points, but both teams have a game in hand on the South Americans.

Here’s what last edition’s runners-up have to do, and hope other teams also do, reach the next stage:

Hope Iceland draw or lose against Croatia, and Nigeria beat Iceland then beat Nigeria themselves or beat Nigeria and hope Iceland lose to Croatia and have a worse goal difference.

Yes, complicated.

But for now all eyes in Argentina, and a large part of the world, will be on the match between Iceland and Nigeria later on Friday.

The points table before Iceland vs Nigeria

Let’s break the scenarios down:

  • If Iceland beat Nigeria, they will have 4 points to Argentina’s 1. Messi and Co will need a win in their last match to get to 4 and hope Iceland then lose to Croatia and they score enough to have a better goal difference than Iceland. 
  • If Iceland and Nigeria draw, the World Cup debutants will be on 2 points and Argentina will need a win in their last match to reach 4 and hope Iceland draw or lose against Croatia to remain static. 
  • If Nigeria beats Iceland, Argentina and Iceland will both be on 1 point. Sampoali’s men will still need a win in their last match and hope that either Croatia beat or draw Iceland so that the Nordic nation’s tally doesn’t increase. They would essentially have to better Iceland’s result in their final match, while improving the GD as needed.
  • If Iceland lose to Nigeria but beat Croatia in the next round of games, Argentina will need a win in their last match and hope to have a better goal difference than Iceland.

This is going to be one interesting match!