From the bleak misery of last Tuesday evening at Lord’s, when a third defeat in seven games had England teetering over a precipice, World Cup oblivion has been avoided.
Eoin Morgan’s men have not just stumbled into the semifinals, however. They have done a whole lot better than that. They have produced two tremendous shows of strength, firstly against India at Edgbaston and then against New Zealand at Chester-le-Street to ensure they go into the critical knockout stage with a healthy dose of belief. In each case, they won the toss, batted first and bossed the game from the opening salvos. Jason Roy, not quite fully fit but rushed back in extremis like a wounded gladiator, has resumed his destructive opening partnership with Jonny Bairstow and everything looks a whole lot more optimistic once again for the hosts and pre-tournament favourites.
Roy and Bairstow plundered 160 in 22.1 overs against India and 123 in 18.4 overs against New Zealand. In both matches, they gave England a big early advantage which meant they could afford a couple of flat spots in both games.
At Edgbaston, England were challenged when Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli put on the sort of momentum-gathering partnership that can win games, but they came through. At Chester-le-Street, they lost their way a bit with the bat from a high point of 194-1 in 30 overs. But again, they came through - first when scrapping to a total of 305-8 and then when knocking over the top four New Zealand batsman cheaply.
This is already by far the most successful World Cup campaign by an England team since 1992 and it may be that those surprising and jarring defeats to Pakistan and Sri Lanka have ultimately had a positive effect on the players. When they then hit the point of no-return by losing for a third time, to an excellent Australia side, it was time to front up, finally, to the challenge or be added to the post-1992 scrapheap of failure. Fortunately, they found the path to salvation rather than damnation.
Collective effort
What has perhaps been most impressive about England’s World Cup when viewed in the round is the fact that they have not relied on a nucleus of star individuals to get them to that crucial haul of 12 points. Five individuals have hit centuries, and Ben Stokes, with a high score of 89, has three other half-centuries to his name and is also the most economical bowler.
Jofra Archer has taken 17 wickets and Mark Wood 16, while England have won all five of the games Liam Plunkett has featured in. The Yorkshire fast bowler has picked up his own fair share of wickets and contributed some rapid runs too.
Compare that with the other teams: Australia have been hugely reliant on the runs of David Warner and Aaron Finch alongside the wickets of Mitchell Starc. If two of them were to have a bad day in the semi-finals that might be the end of the road for them. India’s success has been largely built around the mountain of runs provided by Rohit Sharma and the exceptionally skilful pace bowling of Jasprit Bumrah. It is fair to say England have better strength in depth than either of their main challengers for the World Cup.
There remain some major questions for England to answer. Should Morgan fail to win his next toss - and he is certainly due to lose one having won the last three - then the opposing captain is likely to make England chase a target in an attempt to prey on their weakness. They have only successfully chased once in this tournament, against West Indies when they needed a paltry 213, and all three of their defeats have come when batting second. In general, chasing has been tough as the importance of matches has cranked up: in the last 16 matches of the tournament, the team batting last has won only three times.
England have a pretty bold, risky and frankly one-dimensional attitude to chases. This was emphasised when Trevor Bayliss, their coach, said after the win against New Zealand on Wednesday that they had not batted positively enough against Sri Lanka. These were strange comments. The truth is England only needed 233 in that game and would have got there with some comfort if the lower order had just batted sensibly and allowed Stokes to do the heavy lifting. Did he mean instead that Morgan or Joe Root had batted too slowly before then? Perhaps he did, but this was a tricky Leeds wicket that even Sri Lanka’s highest scorer, Angelo Mathews, had struggled to master.
Let’s assume a scenario in which England are facing India (on paper their likeliest opponents) in the semifinals. Let’s imagine they bowl well, restricting the 2011 champions to 285. But when Bairstow and Roy fail to deliver at the top of the order, Root and Morgan - anxious to keep on top of the required rate - are also dismissed with half the overs still to go and the lower middle-order exposed to the spinners. Things could get very ugly indeed.
England can win the World Cup, and in the last two matches they have shown they have the right skills to do so. But they might need to get a little bit streetwise in the final stages to get over the line.
